Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

"Smart'' targeting of fertilizer subsidies in Kenya: Productivity, welfare, and soil health

Fertilizer subsidy programs in the Global South often juggle competing policy objectives of maximizing aggregate production and providing social protection for the poorest households. Using 2026 survey data from 3105 Kenyan households paired with parcel-level soil tests, this paper evaluates the targeting performance of Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP). Specifically, we analyze the extent to which the current “de facto” targeting—driven by digital registration and e-vouchers—aligns with these possibly conflicting policy goals. We find that the subsidy recipient populations who would maximize productivity do not tend to include the poorest and most vulnerable farmers. Furthermore, the current pool of NFSP beneficiaries shows limited overlap with the ideal beneficiaries for either policy objective. Among those who we would ideally target, we find that factors such as mobile phone ownership and knowledge of fertilizer recommendations may help predict which households actually receive benefits. We conclude that integrating soil testing into subsidy frameworks could significantly reduce these inefficiencies and improve the alignment between program delivery and national agricultural goals.

Agricultural inputs and harvest among vegetable producers in rural Sri Lanka: Insights from a baseline survey of the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) end-to-end evaluation

Sri Lanka's agricultural sector plays a vital role in the food security and nutrition of its people. In recent years, overlapping crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, severe economic collapse, climate-related shocks, such as cyclone Ditwah and subsequent flooding, and global political unrest have disrupted food systems and exacerbated food insecurity for Sri Lankans. These challenges have constrained access to nutrient-rich foods, while increasing reliance on cheaper, less nutritious alternatives. At the same time, Sri Lanka has been undergoing a nutrition transition characterized by increased consumption of ultra-processed foods and a double burden of malnutrition including micronutrient deficiencies and rising rates of overweight and obesity.

Intake of aquatic and terrestrial animal source foods among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania

Aquatic foods and terrestrial animal source foods (TASF) provide crucial nutrients that build and maintain muscle mass and function. These foods are particularly rich in essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, vitamin A (as retinol), vitamin D, and vitamin B12, as well as essential fatty acids. Notably, vitamin B12 is found almost exclusively in TASF and some aquatic foods, underscoring their importance in diets. Compared with plant-sourced protein foods, aquatic foods and TASF generally provide micronutrients in more bioavailable forms, which is critical for populations at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. However, aquatic foods and TASF have a higher environmental footprint than plant-sourced protein foods, requiring diversified strategies to meet global dietary needs under increasing environmental pressures.

El Niño preparedness and response

El Niño is a phase in an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts between 9 months and 2 years. El Niño affects global weather patterns, resulting in above-average precipitation in some places and droughts in others. Malawi and its neighbors typically experience drier than usual weather during El Niño, which often leads to poor growing conditions and below-average harvests (Anderson et al., 2023). In mid-June 2026, conditions in the Pacific Ocean have surpassed El Niño thresholds, and it is becoming increasingly probable that they will strengthen further (NOAA, 2026).

Changing demographics in Ghana’s agrifood systems and implications for future youth engagement

Agrifood systems (AFS) are central to employment, food security, and economic transformation across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As economies grow, urbanize, and experience changing food demand, AFS increasingly extend beyond farming to include processing and other downstream value chain activities. These transformations create new employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, while reshaping labor markets and livelihoods. Understanding these changes is therefore essential for designing policies that promote inclusive growth, employment creation, and food system resilience.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

This study examines the evolution of agrifood system employment in Ghana between 2000 and 2023. Using data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the World Bank, and other national and international sources, the analysis documents trends in economic growth, population dynamics, urbanization, labor market outcomes, and employment across agrifood system segments. Particular attention is given to gender and youth dimensions of employment and their implications for inclusive development. The study contributes to the growing literature on agrifood system transformation by documenting changes in the composition of employment and identifying opportunities and constraints for inclusive participation in emerging value chains.

The study finds that AFS remains the largest source of employment in Ghana, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total employment. Agriculture continues to employ a substantial share of workers, particularly men and youth, but its relative importance has declined steadily over time. At the same time, employment in nonfarm agrifood system activities – including food manufacturing, trade, transportation, and food services – expanded considerably. These findings suggest that Ghana’s labor market transformation is occurring not through a rapid exit from AFS but through diversification within them as value chains deepen and become more integrated.

The analysis also reveals important demographic patterns in AFS employment. Women are more concentrated in agrifood system employment than men and are particularly represented in nonfarm AFS activities such as trade and food-related services. However, women continue to face disadvantages in employment quality, financial inclusion, access to productive assets, and participation in formal employment. Similarly, youth remain highly dependent on AFS for their livelihoods. Although labor force participation among young people is lower and unemployment is higher than among mature workers, AFS – particularly farming – continues to provide employment for a large share of young people. These findings underscore the importance of AFS as a source of economic inclusion while highlighting the persistent barriers that women and youth continue to face.

Although the available data do not permit separate analysis of young women as a distinct population group, the combined evidence from this study and the broader literature suggests that they are likely to benefit substantially from the continued expansion of nonfarm agrifood activities. Food processing, marketing, food services, and other downstream value-chain segments are expanding in Ghana while already employing relatively large shares of women. Strengthening access to finance, productive assets, business development services, skills, and digital technologies can therefore help translate ongoing agrifood transformation into more dignified and fulfilling employment opportunities for young women.

Employment outside agrifood systems also expanded during the study period, with the share of non-AFS employment increasing by four percentage points to 34.6 percent in 2017, reflecting Ghana's gradual structural transformation. Growth in non-AFS employment was stronger among men and mature adults than among women and youth, indicating that opportunities outside agrifood systems have expanded unevenly across population groups.

Overall, Ghana exhibits a relatively advanced stage of agrifood system transformation, characterized by declining agricultural employment, expanding nonfarm AFS activities, and gradual growth in non-AFS employment. Continued investments in agrifood value chains, infrastructure, market connectivity, access to finance, and entrepreneurship support will be essential to ensure that this transformation generates productive, inclusive, and resilient employment, particularly for women and young people.

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season.
Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing.
Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season.
Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country's main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need.

Recommended Actions:
Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors.
Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases.
Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer.
Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.
Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices of children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoralist settings of Ethiopia

Previous research has established determinants of young child feeding (IYCF) practices in the general child population, but determinants of these practices in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are unknown. This study assessed the determinants of IYCF practices among children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment in a pastoralist and a predominantly agrarian setting in Ethiopia. As part of the baseline survey for the R-SWITCH cluster randomized control trial, we screened ~28,000 under-fives and included 486 children aged 6–23 months with SAM and under SAM treatment. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants on household, caregiver and child levels. Minimum meal frequency (MMF) was similar between children from the agrarian (53.9%) and pastoralist (51.9%) setting. The prevalence of children with minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was low overall but higher among pastoralist children (31.5%) than children from the agrarian setting (19.0%; p = 0.012). The consumption of egg/flesh foods was lower among pastoralist children (5.6%) than agrarian children (16.9%, p = 0.085). Caregiver literacy was positively associated with a higher likelihood of MMF (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI:1.02–1.43; p = 0.030), while caregiver depression was associated with a lower likelihood of MMF (RR = 0.97; 95% CI:0.95–0.99; p = 0.003). Improved water source (RR = 1.59; 95% CI:1.06–2.38; p = 0.037), caregiver literacy (RR = 2.04; 95% CI:1.25–3.34; p = 0.002), caregiver MDD (RR = 2.21; 95% CI:1.60–3.05; p ≤ 0.001), older children(RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02–1.08;p ≤ 0.001), and pastoralist setting (RR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.07–2.44; p = 0.014) were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of meeting MDD. Conversely, caregiver depression (RR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.90–0.97; p < 0.001), caregiver mobility restriction (IRR = 0.94; 95% CI:0.89–1.00; p = 0.025), and food insecurity (RR = 0.64; 95% CI:0.41–1.01; p = 0.05) were associated with reduced MDD likelihood. Caregiver community involvement (IRR = 1.12; 95% CI:1.00–1.26; p = 0.038), caregiver MDD (RR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.10–2.53; p = 0.043), and older children (RR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.05–1.12; p < 0.001) were associated with increased egg/flesh-food consumption among children, while living in a pastoralist setting was associated with reduced it (RR = 0.36; 95% CI:0.13–0.97; p = 0.038). Integrated and Targeted interventions recommended: caregiver literacy/depression support to improve IYCF; livelihood-specific foods (eggs/flesh, fruits/vegetables); WaSH enhancements; community engagement; and IYCF counseling within CMAM programs.

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Integrating stakeholder engagement in food system research programs: Stakeholder experiences

Objectives: We aimed to understand stakeholder experiences participating in FRESH – a food-systems, participatory, action-oriented research initiative (2022–2024) aiming to increase fruit and vegetable intake using an end-to-end (ETE) approach (demand, supply, food environment and enabling environment).

Crop diversification in Nepal (1990–2022): Policies, practices, and pathways forward

Nepal’s agriculture remains predominantly cereal-based, with rice occupying most of the cultivated area and forming the dietary staple. This dependence heightens vulnerability to climate shocks, market volatility, and nutritional imbalance. Despite long-standing policy commitments to crop diversification, evidence on progress and policy effectiveness remains limited, and fragmented. This study systematically reviews agricultural policies to investigate the evolution of crop diversification in Nepal, evaluate the programs to promote crop diversification, and empirically assesses diversification trends from 1990 to 2024, highlighting key gaps and structural constraints. We used a mixed-methods approach. A systematic scoping review following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework analyzed 15 periodic plans, 18 sectoral policies, and initially over 70 donor-funded projects; after screening, 23 programs were included for detailed analysis from 1956 to 2024. Complementarily, quantitative analysis using Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI) measured diversification trends over 32 years (1990–2022). SDI was also mapped district-wise for visual analysis of the changes in diversification over the past three decades. The systematic review recognizes policies and programs have endorsed crop diversification as a strategy to enhance agricultural output, promote ecological balance and strengthen socio-economic resilience. Persistent challenges such as weak market linkages, poor storage and cold-chain infrastructure, quality assurance gaps, and fragmented value chains have constrained impact. Structural issues such as declining public investment, climate risks, and labor migration further impede progress. The quantitative analysis shows a modest increase in crop diversification over the past three decades, with a noticeable slowdown after 2015. This study provides the first longitudinal assessment linking policy evolution with diversification outcomes, emphasizing the need for integrated, value chain–oriented, and climate-resilient diversification strategies.

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Introduction [in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14]

Agricultural trade lies at the heart of development, food security, and sustainability. Over the past several decades, global trade in agricultural products has grown both in volume and complexity. Trade has supported structural transformation, expanded food access, and increased incomes across regions. But in recent years, this system has become increasingly strained. Rising geopolitical tensions, recurring global shocks, and a growing disconnect between trade rules and sustainability goals have left the global trading system at a crossroads.

This book is the fourth in a series of concise, policy-focused publications aimed at supporting agricultural trade reform and food systems transformation. The first volume, titled Transforming Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities, examined how shifting climate, social, and economic pressures were reshaping the region’s food systems. The second, Food Systems at a Crossroads, explored the political economy of food and agriculture in Latin America, identifying core trade-offs and opportunities for policy innovation. The third volume, The Road to MC12, provided timely analysis ahead of the 12th World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Ministerial to highlight risks of fragmentation and Latin America’s potential to contribute to a reinvigorated multilateral system.

This fourth edition expands the conversation to include Africa, a region with growing importance in global agricultural trade debates. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Africa face distinct realities, but they also share vulnerabilities and strategic interests. Both regions have significant agricultural potential, are highly exposed to trade-related shocks, and are seeking a fairer, more inclusive trade regime. This book aims to deepen understanding of how these regions are navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape and how they can contribute to shaping the future of agricultural trade.

Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation.

Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.

Agricultural trade structure, disruptions, and competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has a central position in global agricultural trade, both as a major exporter of staple commodities and as a region increasingly exposed to shifts in global demand, trade policy, and geopolitical fragmentation. Recent developments show that agrifood trade is no longer shaped primarily by gradual liberalization or isolated tariff disputes. Instead, it is being reshaped by a more complex environment in which higher tariffs coexist with selective application, exemptions, and preferential treatment.

A key insight emerging from recent trade shocks is that markets can adjust, but adjustment increasingly takes place through the reallocation of trade flows rather than through smooth prices or production responses. This has important implications for LAC, where trade is often concentrated around a limited number of products and destinations. As adjustment costs rise, outcomes depend less on aggregate performance and more on structural characteristics such as diversification, bargaining power, and institutional capacity. Against this backdrop, the chapter situates LAC’s experience within the broader global debate, emphasizing the need to align national and regional strategies with a changing global trade landscape.

The WTO from a Latin American and Caribbean perspective: Why rules still matter

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) occupies a distinctive position in the global agri-food system. The region combines highly competitive agricultural exporters, systemic actors of considerable weight such as Mexico and Brazil, and small Caribbean Island economies that are structurally dependent on food imports. This internal diversity is central to understanding the continued importance of multilateral rules for the region’s economic stability (World Bank 2020; FAO 2023).

Africa’s key issues in WTO negotiations, MC14 and beyond

At the creation of the multilateral trading system in 1948, agriculture was formally covered by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), including principles such as tariff bindings and non-discrimination. In practice, however, agriculture remained largely exempt from strict multilateral disciplines, as governments maintained wide policy space to support domestic farm sectors through subsidies, price controls, and non-tariff measures. This flexibility largely reflected the concerns of major agricultural economies, while developing countries, including many in Africa, remained primarily exporters of primary commodities with limited influence over global rule-making.

Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14

The book Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post‑MC14 examines how global agricultural trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, limited progress with multilateral negotiations, and evolving economic priorities. It analyzes how these changes affect developing regions especially Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa highlighting challenges such as trade fragmentation, food security concerns, and structural barriers, while also exploring opportunities for competitiveness, regional integration, and innovation.

Large language models as measurement instruments in applied economics: A 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa, 2010–2025

Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used in applied economics to convert unstructured text into structured empirical measures. This paper examines their use as measurement instruments through a 10-country public-discourse panel on food and nutrition security in Africa from 2010 to 2025. The panel covers Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, and contains 206 document-level records drawn from public early-warning, humanitarian, government, and technical sources. Each record is organized by country, date, source type, geography, benchmark type, benchmark phase where available, leakage risk, and a set of generated coding variables describing food-security dimension, text severity, narrative frame, tone, attribution, and evidence type. The paper treats LLM-coded outputs not as ground truth, but as generated variables subject to measurement error, source-selection bias, benchmark leakage, and uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven source text. A conservative validation sample is limited to records with completed source-grounded excerpts, while an exploratory validation sample uses the broader metadata-supported corpus to examine phase coverage across benchmark categories. The results illustrate both the promise and the limits of LLM-assisted public-discourse measurement. Public documents can be transformed into transparent, auditable indicators of food-security stress, but their validity depends on document sampling, excerpt quality, benchmark independence, source diversity, and careful distinction between technical classifications and independent discourse. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on LLMs in economics by shifting attention from general productivity uses toward the practical conditions under which LLM-assisted text measurement can support applied research and policy analysis.

A reproducibility package accompanies the study and includes the coded data, validation samples, codebook, data dictionary, AI-use disclosure, leakage documentation, and scripts for reproducing the descriptive results.

China's agrifood system: Structure and transformation, 2012–2023

This study analyzes the historical performance, evolutionary trends, and future opportunities and challenges of China’s agrifood system (AFS) from 2012 to 2023. By constructing multi-year social accounting matrices (SAMs), the study quantifies the economic scale and structural characteristics of the AFS, as well as its historical contribution to broader economic transformation and growth. Utilizing the China Agrifood System Model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of productivity enhancements across different value chains in promoting multidimensional development goals, such as GDP growth, job creation, and poverty eradication. The findings indicate that the transformation of the AFS is a core component of China’s economic transformation. Although the AFS’s share of the national economy has declined during industrialization, its contribution to inclusive economic transformation remains substantial. This continued importance is closely linked to profound structural shifts within the sector, as value creation has increasingly moved from primary production toward downstream segments such as processing, trade, and food services. General equilibrium simulations indicate that some agricultural sectors, including maize, vegetables, and fisheries, generate strong multiplier effects on non-agricultural employment, helping to absorb labor and alleviate transition pressures. The study concludes that continuously optimizing the internal structure of the AFS and strengthening integrated value chain synergies are critical pathways for addressing future resource and environmental constraints while achieving sustainable and inclusive development.

Agricultural credit and conflict: Evidence from Myanmar

Access to timely credit is widely viewed as an important determinant of improved agricultural investment and productivity. However, little is known about how agricultural credit markets function during prolonged conflict. This paper examines how conflict shapes both the receipt of agricultural credit and the provision of informal credit by agrifood businesses in Myanmar, where conflict has been widespread in after 2021. Using rare data from both farmers and firms, we document a substantial decline in formal credit after conflict, but stable receipt of informal credit. In conflict-affected areas, formal credit receipt declined sharply – most notably from government-supported schemes and from microfinance institutions – while informal credit was more resilient – especially from friends and family and agribusinesses. Using direct elicitation methods of credit constraint classifications, we show that farmers in high conflict areas are more likely to voluntarily withdraw from credit markets and shift to self-financing. On the supply side, conflict has insignificant relationships to farm-credit provision by input retailers and rice mills. Taken together, our findings highlight the informal segment of agricultural credit markets as an underappreciated source of resilience in conflict-affected settings.

2026 Sudan conflict conference: Three years of conflict in Sudan: What the evidence tells us and what recovery requires - Conference proceedings

The 2026 Sudan Conflict Conference, organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Cairo and held on 14 and 15 April, brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners to discuss the impacts of Sudan’s protracted conflict on the nation’s economy and agrifood systems and to identify evidence‑based pathways for recovery. This proceedings report documents the key evidence, discussions, and policy insights generated during the conference, capturing technical research, operational perspectives, and contextual nuances. Three years into the crisis, Sudan faces a systemic breakdown affecting agricultural production, markets, institutions, and human capital, leaving more than half of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.

Evidence presented during the conference highlighted severe disruptions to agrifood systems and increasingly fragmented markets, with food insecurity driven primarily by affordability and accessibility constraints. While firms and households have shown adaptive capacity, these responses to the conflict remain constrained and often rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including asset depletion and reduced investment. Displacement continues to deepen vulnerability but also offers the potential for increased economic integration supported by inclusive approaches, while the erosion of health and education systems poses serious long‑term risks to human capital and growth.

Across the conference sessions, a clear consensus emerged on the need for integrated, system‑wide responses that link humanitarian assistance with recovery and development interventions. Agriculture and market systems were identified as critical entry points, while cash assistance is most effective when combined with livelihood and market support. Moving forward, the recovery of the nation’s economy and agrifood systems coming out of the conflict will require coordinated strategies to restore markets, rebuild livelihoods, invest in human capital, and strengthen data‑driven decision-making, supported by sustained international engagement and locally grounded approaches.

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

Rice prices remained relatively stable in May 2026, increasing modestly by 2.2 percent year-on-year and 1.6 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs.

Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses price remained broadly stable, supported by continued demand from India and increased purchasing by traders and wholesalers. In contrast, maize prices continued to rise, driven by strong export demand ahead of the June closure of Thailand’s duty-free import window1 and improving cross-border trade opportunities.

Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Garlic prices continued to increase due to lower domestic production and reduced imported supply, while onion and chili prices recorded modest declines. Potato prices continued to fall amid increased inflows of lower-priced Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand.

Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than a year ago, led by mutton, beef, and fish. However, month-on-month price movements were generally modest, indicating stable market conditions across most livestock and fish products.

The Iran conflict and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil and fertilizer trade. In Myanmar, fuel and urea fertilizer prices remain well above year-earlier levels — even as diesel prices moderated from their April peaks — eroding fertilizer profitability and prompting some farmers to cultivate smaller areas or reduce plowings. If sustained, these conditions point to lower monsoon-season agricultural production.

Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in Myanmar.

Land tenure security, crop choices, and agricultural input investment decisions: Evidence from nationally representative data in Nigeria

Land tenure security is widely regarded as essential for agricultural investment and productivity growth. However, causal evidence on its effects across multiple farm decisions remains limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates how tenure security is associated with crop portfolio choices and input investment decisions among smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. It measures tenure security using a composite index, drawn from wave 5 of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), that captures plot-level perceived security of ownership, and household reported risk of land loss, ownership security, and duration of ownership. The study employs two complementary approaches: a multivariate probit model to capture the joint and correlated nature of crop adoption decisions, and limited information maximum likelihood instrumental variables (LIML-IV) estimation to establish association between land tenure and input investment decisions. Results reveal significant but heterogeneous effects. Greater tenure security increases the probability of cultivating grains and cereals by 29.8 percentage points, while reducing the likelihood of growing legumes and pulses by 24.6 percentage points and horticulture by 11.4 percentage points respectively, which suggests a substitution effect toward grain specialization. On input investments, LIML-IV estimates indicate that a one-unit increase in the tenure security index raises organic fertilizer use by 9.93 percent, inorganic fertilizer use by 6.57 percent, and pesticide use by approximately 0.89 percent. These findings are robust to Lewbel’s heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger investment effects among youth-headed households, while impacts on female-managed plots are statistically insignificant, pointing to persistent gender barriers. The study highlights the need for integrated policies that combine tenure formalization with crop diversification support, gender- and youth-sensitive land governance, and input market development in order to maximize the productivity gains from land rights reform in Nigeria.

An agentic AI assistant for country-level economic modeling: Methods, data, and expert evaluation

The demand for high-quality, rapid economic analysis to navigate complex issues faced by many low- and middle-income countries has led to the development of detailed structural simulation models, such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Policy analysis with such models requires deep knowledge of their structure and applicability to the policy issues at hand. Policymakers in these settings often lack access to the expertise required for articulating, analyzing, and interpreting the relevant causal chains captured by the models. Attempting to circumvent these barriers by submitting complex economic questions directly to off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) introduces severe analytical risks, including hallucinations and insufficient expert guidance. To resolve this limitation, we developed and empirically evaluated an agentic AI assistant called RIAPA-AI that integrates LLMs with a CGE model. We evaluated the performance of RIAPA-AI against expert human CGE modelers and a general-purpose plain LLM baseline across samples of complex economic scenarios, utilizing an independent panel of senior economists to grade the outputs. Our statistical analysis reveals no statistically significant difference in analytical accuracy between RIAPA-AI and human experts, while the AI accelerates reproducible policy analysis from weeks to minutes. Furthermore, by operating without manual processing limits, RIAPA-AI eliminates the 6.7% error rate observed among human modelers. Conversely, the general-purpose plain LLM exhibits profound failure rates, failing to achieve policy-ready scores in over 60% of depth evaluations. Without an underlying CGE model acting as a bounding force to reflect economic structural constraints, the general-purpose plain LLM defaults to linear economic assumptions and inserts unmodeled socio-political narratives. Crucially, by explicitly restricting the AI's narrative interpretation solely to deterministic numerical outputs, RIAPA-AI mitigates the risk of unverified assumptions and logic hallucinations. We conclude that by deploying an agentic AI assistant that layers a generative AI over a formal CGE model, RIAPA-AI successfully delivers sensible, rigorous, and rapid policy analysis.

Rice establishment methods in Myanmar: Trends, perceptions, and constraints

Key Findings:
Direct-seeded rice (DSR) is widely adopted in Myanmar rice production, used by around 50 percent of farmers during the monsoon season and about 75 percent during the dry season, accounting for the majority of cultivated rice area.
Rice establishment methods remained relatively stable from 2023–2025 despite political instability, market disruptions, labor shortages, and price volatility.
DSR adoption is higher among larger farms and non-irrigated farms, indicating that labor and water constraints strongly influence establishment choices.
Broadcasting is the dominant DSR method, particularly dry broadcasting, while row planting remains uncommon.
Most farmers believe puddled-transplanted rice (PTR) produces higher yields than DSR, with an average perceived yield advantage of about 11 baskets per acre.
Farmers overwhelmingly perceive PTR as more labor-intensive, while differences in fertilizer and pesticide use are viewed as relatively small or mixed.
Labor shortages and water constraints are the primary reasons for adopting DSR, not perceptions of lower profitability or lower yields under PTR.

Recommended Actions:
Strengthen investments in irrigation and water management systems to reduce water-related constraints and enable farmers to choose establishment methods based on productivity rather than necessity.
Address rural labor shortages through mechanization support, labor-saving technologies, and improved access to agricultural services.
Develop and disseminate best management practices for DSR, particularly for weed control, seed establishment, and water management to improve productivity and profitability.
Conduct rigorous research on the economic returns of DSR and PTR across different agro-ecological zones, farm sizes, and irrigation conditions.

Pre- and postharvest losses and their correlates in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya

Food losses are a major constraint to agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and agrifood system efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, yet comprehensive micro-level evidence across value chains remains limited. This study provides a detailed assessment of pre- and postharvest losses in the Irish potato value chain in Kenya, drawing on purposefully collected data from producers, aggregators and processors. Using a consistent, multidimensional measurement framework, the study captures both quantitative (physical) and qualitative (degradation) losses across production and postharvest stages.

The results indicate that potato losses are widespread and occur throughout the value chain, with the largest share concentrated at the producer level. Preharvest losses and on-farm postharvest losses account for a substantial proportion (23.5 percent) of total losses, reflecting the combined effects of pest and disease pressures, weather-related shocks, and suboptimal management practices. Nationally, producer-level potato losses could amount to KSh 14.5 billion annually, equivalent to the annual per capita income of about 50,000 Kenyans. While producer-level losses dominate, descriptive evidence shows that potato aggregators and processors also incur nonnegligible losses, particularly during storage, transportation, and handling. These losses are commonly associated with spillage, mechanical damage, inadequate storage conditions, and poor handling practices, highlighting inefficiencies beyond the farm gate.

Econometric results reveal that loss patterns vary across producers and production environments. Differences in demographic characteristics, farm size, labor availability, and market orientation contribute to heterogeneity in both the likelihood and intensity of losses. These results further demonstrate that asset ownership, management practices, and exposure to production risks are key determinants of loss outcomes. Greater household assets and labor availability are associated with reduced loss incidence and intensity, while exposure to biotic and abiotic stressors – captured through a composite index – significantly increases both the probability and severity of preharvest losses.

Input use and management practices also play an important role. The application of chemical fertilizers is associated with reduced loss intensity, consistent with improved crop vigor and resilience, while the use of pest control is positively correlated with loss occurrence, likely reflecting reactive application following infestation. The adoption of improved seed varieties increases the likelihood of losses but reduces the intensity of them, which is a nuanced finding that suggests both greater exposure and improved resilience conditional on damage. Access to training and third-party agricultural service is associated with lower losses, underscoring the importance of knowledge and advisory support. This area also presents opportunities for youth, particularly young women, to engage in agrifood-system service provision through activities such as advisory services, quality management, aggregation, and postharvest handling, which can simultaneously reduce losses and generate income. Importantly, the analysis reveals strong linkages between preharvest and postharvest losses. Higher preharvest losses are associated with both increased likelihood and greater severity of postharvest losses, indicating that damage incurred during production propagates along the value chain.

Overall, potato losses in Kenya are systemic but largely preventable through improved handling, storage, market infrastructure, and farmer capacity. Although youth sample sizes in this study are too small to quantify specific effects, the data highlight clear entry points for engaging youth, particularly young women, in reducing post-harvest losses. For instance, there are opportunities for involving youths in services offered at the production stage, which include sorting, curing, and transportation.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Gender asset-ownership gap, women's agency, and its implications for household inequality: Evidence from Nigeria

he gender asset-ownership gap remains a persistent barrier to inclusive economic growth. While women contribute significantly to agricultural production and household welfare, they continue to face constraints in accessing and controlling productive assets such as land and non-land resources. Using nationally representative panel data from the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) waves 4 and 5, this study examines the role of women’s productive asset ownership and empowerment in shaping household income inequality in rural Nigeria. Descriptive evidence shows persistently high intrahousehold inequality, with intrahousehold Gini coefficients averaging approximately 0.70 across survey rounds, despite a modest decline between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Regional patterns reveal particularly pronounced inequality in the North East, where income distributions are heavily skewed and most households exhibit extreme intrahousehold disparities. Employing fixed effects regressions and Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, the analysis yields three key findings. First, women’s land share is associated with reduced intrahousehold income inequality, but this effect is modest and conditional. It becomes meaningful primarily in households where women control more than half of total household farmland, suggesting that small and fragmented landholdings offer limited inequality-reducing potential on their own. Women’s control over income and participation in agricultural decision-making emerge as additional and consistently significant drivers of reduced intrahousehold inequality. Second, women’s land share has a significant and positive effect on women’s income share, with a 10 percentage point increase in female-managed farmland associated with approximately a 0.76 percentage point increase in women’s share of household income; women’s income control and agricultural decision-making further amplify this effect. Third, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions reveal that households where women own productive assets have significantly lower intrahousehold inequality and higher women’s income shares than those where no woman owns an asset, with differences driven primarily by disparities in women’s income control and decision-making authority rather than asset ownership alone. This shifts the policy debate from simply closing gender asset gaps to ensuring women’s assets are productive and consolidated with genuine economic agency.

The early bird gets the cash: Early notification and conditional cash transfers for secondary school

What is the optimal timing for a cash transfer targeting increased secondary school enrollment? We present evidence from a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia showing a CCT increases enrollment and reduces child marriage. The largest effects are observed for youth offered the transfer a year prior to their (potential) matriculation; in this cohort, there is also a significant in-crease in the probability students pass the primary school leaving exam. By contrast, reduced treatment effects are observed for prior dropouts, and a generalized random forest analysis suggests this primarily reflects different observable characteristics (lower academic performance) among this sub-sample.

Gender, disability, and welfare in Myanmar

This working paper examines household welfare among women-adult-only households and households with a disabled/chronically ill member using Myanmar Household Welfare Surveys from April 2022 to July 2025. It analyzes their demographic characteristics, income composition, and levels of asset and income poverty. The paper’s main contribution is assessing key food security indicators for these vulnerable households, including Minimum Dietary Diversity, the Food Consumption Score, and the Household Hunger Score.

Women-adult-only households, defined as households without any male members aged 15 or older, account for 9 percent of households nationally, or 13 percent when including households with elderly male dependents. Fourteen percent of households have a disabled or chronically ill member, and 10 percent have a disabled or chronically ill adult.

Women-adult-only and disability-affected households have higher asset poverty rates than the national average. Women-adult-only households have similar income poverty levels compared with the national average, while 71 percent of households with a disabled/chronically ill member are income poor, compared to 63 percent nationally. Remittance receipt among women-adult-only households decreases income poverty for the group; more women-adult-only households receive remittances (33 percent) and rely on remittances (24 percent) as their main income source.

Women-adult-only and disability-affected households perform worse across all dietary indicators. Women-adult-only households show, on average, 4 percentage points higher prevalence of low food consumption across survey rounds, while households with a disabled/chronically ill adult have a 3percentage-point higher prevalence. Moderate or severe hunger is also higher among women-adultonly households (6 percent) and households with a disabled/chronically ill adult (7 percent), compared with the national average of 4 percent.

Households with a disabled/chronically ill adult are significantly more likely to rely on negative food-related coping strategies—including borrowing food, reducing meals, and skipping meals— highlighting their heightened vulnerability relative to other households. Regression results highlight that women-adult-only households face elevated hunger because of their structural economic disadvantages —fewer different income sources, weaker land ownership, and lower asset holdings — rather than the absence of adult men per se. Low food consumption, however, remains significantly lower for women-adult-only households even after fully controlling for these structural factors. This likely reflects the severe time constraints of households where all productive, care, and domestic tasks fall on adult women alone. For households with a disabled or chronically ill adult hunger persists across all specifications regardless of income, land, or asset controls — pointing to a direct burden that structural economic characteristics cannot explain. These contrasting findings suggest different interventions: structural economic interventions around land and livelihoods for women-adult-only households, and direct consumption support and social protection transfers for households affected by disability.

Soil tests, vouchers, and the limits of site-specific fertilizer recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Fertilizer subsidy programmes dominate agricultural spending in several African countries. Rising and volatile fertilizer prices have renewed concerns about the efficiency of such spending, prompting initiatives to tailor fertilizer recommendations to local soil conditions. We test this premise in Malawi, where the national subsidy programme distributes a standard package of urea and NPK fertilizer. In a cluster-randomized trial involving more than 2,000 households across 113 villages, we assign farmers to (i) a plot-level soil-test recommendation, (ii) the same recommendation combined with a voucher of subsidy-equivalent value, or (iii) a control group. The recommendation alone has no effect on fertilizer use, input choice, or maize yields. When paired with a voucher, fertilizer use and maize yields increase substantially, with yields rising by roughly one-third; at the maize prices prevailing in our study area, however, the value of this additional production falls short of the face value of the voucher, let alone the value of the voucher plus the cost of individualized soil test. For farmers themselves the package is nonetheless profitable, since the voucher largely displaces fertilizer they would have bought anyway and so lowers their own input spending, and because many households are net maize buyers, valuing the additional output at retail rather than farmgate prices narrows the shortfall. The yield gains do not reflect adoption of site-specific prescriptions: voucher recipients predominantly purchase urea and NPK in proportions closely matching the standard subsidy bundle, regardless of what their soil test recommends, and compliance with recommended alternatives such as potassium, lime, or calcium ammonium nitrate is negligible. Because the observed gains come almost entirely from nitrogen intensification while phosphorus, potassium, and lime gaps remain uncorrected, the measured yield response is a lower bound on what full-compliance fertilization could deliver. Relaxing financial constraints thus increases input use and productivity, but information alone does not redirect behaviour toward precision fertilization. Effective subsidy reform will require addressing broader supply- and demand-side constraints, including input availability, farmer familiarity with recommended products, and the practical implementation of site-specific recommendations, not only improving agronomic information.

Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions for Food Systems and Women’s Empowerment (RENEW)

The Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions for Food Systems and Women’s Empowerment (RENEW) initiative develops scalable, investment-ready models for climate-resilient water and land management in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) under the CGIAR Food Frontiers and Security Program, RENEW works in Bangladesh, Nigeria and Sudan to strengthen water security, livelihoods and social cohesion. By combining resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS), inclusive governance, women and youth empowerment, and evidence-based scaling pathways, the initiative supports locally led adaptation while generating practical insights for governments, donors and development partners to scale conflict-sensitive and climate-resilient interventions.

When quality (doesn't) pay: Evidence from two experiments in Uganda

Quality in agri-food supply chains is often unobservable at first sale and early aggregation limits traceability, weakening incentives for quality provision. We study whether making milk quality visible and traceable creates a market for quality in Uganda’s dairy sector. Increasing observability reduces adulteration and improves quality, but no premium emerges. In a follow-up experiment, we introduce trader quality premiums. This increases quality when binding, yet informed intermediaries capture the gains and farm-gate prices do not rise. Observability is necessary but insufficient: without downstream demand for quality and pass-through by intermediaries, incentives for quality upgrading remain weak.

Climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation options for Uzbekistan

Climate change is likely to reshape agriculture in an irrigated, water-scarce transition economy like Uzbekistan. We use IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model and evaluate the direct effects of climate change on Uzbekistan’s agriculture through 2050. We assume changes in GDP, population, and technological progress to be exogenous. We find that climate change and the corresponding temperature increase will have significant adverse effects on the long-term yields of cotton and wheat through changes in water availability, precipitation patterns, crop yields, and the use of land, water, and other natural resources, but harvested area responses may differ. All climate change scenarios are similar in predicting an increase in harvested area for temperate fruits and vegetables, but their yield gains remain conditional on market prices, policy reform, water use and institutional constraints. For policymakers, this makes climate change adaptation actions an opportunity for incentives and structural reforms as well as for technology to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to ensure food security.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low- and middle-income countries are under increasing fiscal pressure to rationalize spending on fertilizer subsidy programs. Policy reforms shifting expenditure away from subsidies can have beneficial impacts given the well-documented distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities of fertilizer subsidies. However, such reforms also result in losses and often lower fertilizer use for current beneficiaries. Understanding who is impacted by reform thus requires an assessment of who is currently benefiting, yet there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both on paper and in practice. In this paper, we identify low- and middle- income countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are designed as universal, in many countries there are implicit targeting criteria embedded in the way subsidy programs are implemented and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, the targeting of subsidy programs is generally pro-poor, driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

From Vision to Action (V2A): Co-development of transition pathways towards enhanced multifunctionality in Mandla landscapes, Madhya Pradesh (India)

Mandla district is situated in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh (seen in figure 1), covers an area of 7226 km2 and is defined by its diverse topography and agricultural significance. The district is situated within the Satpura hill range and the Narmada catchment area. The district comprises 1223 villages with a population of 1.28 million, and is home to several scheduled tribes, particularly the Gond, Baiga, and Oraon communities https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173476. These indigenous groups rely heavily on the commons, forests for Non-Timber Forest Produce (NTFP), and open pastures. The district's agricultural landscape is marked by the cultivation of key crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. Mandla faces challenges like soil erosion, particularly in ridge areas, prompting the construction of continuous contour bunds and trenches to mitigate its impact. With a total cropped area of 376,780 hectares, the district predominantly cultivates paddy, wheat, and pulses. However, water scarcity looms large despite an annual average rainfall of more than 1300 mm, as the districts undulating topography limits prolonged water retention and its soil characteristics further constrain groundwater recharge. Limited irrigation infrastructure, concentrated mainly near dams and canals, compels local residents to depend on rivers, streams, and traditional wells for domestic water needs. The district, largely falling under the Narmada river catchment, exhibits a unique environmental duality, with over 60% covered by forests providing vital habitat for wildlife and serving as a crucial resource for the local population.

Current Agro-Based Transformation and Its Future in East and Southern Africa

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

The significant economic implications of the value of farmland in developing countries is increasingly recognized, particularly in those countries where land scarcity is a growing problem. However, knowledge gaps remain about how farmland values can be affected by factors such as conflict and social instability. A knowledge gap also remains regarding how spatial transmission and feedback effects of land values among geographically proximate parcels may affect the relationship between conflict and farmland values. This impact has generally been overlooked in the literature, despite the well-established importance of clustering in agricultural economies. This paper addresses these gaps by utilizing unique, nationally representative panel data on farm households and spatial data on conflict intensity in Myanmar, with a focus on the period of significant conflict intensification following the 2021 political crisis, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when the country’s conflict level largely shifted to a high-intensity state. We apply spatial econometric models and their extensions to a panel data framework, as well as models that allow for endogenous spatial weights, which enable conflicts to not only affect farmland values but also shape how changes in farmland values transmit across locations. Our results indicate that more local conflict during the prior 12 months, measured by the number of months with at least one fatal violent event within the township of respondents, significantly reduced the farmland values of the largest rice plot of these respondents. Specifically, in the monsoon and non-monsoon harvesting seasons of 2022 and 2023, an additional one month of fatal violence was associated with approximately 3 percent and 5 percent decline in land values, respectively, implying a potentially sizable decline for townships that experience more persistent conflicts over several months. Moreover, the effects of violent events are magnified by spatial spillover effects on land values across village tracts. These adverse effects are robust and consistent across a range of methodologies and hold across diverse agroecological conditions.

Strengthening Myanmar’s agrifood system: Evidence and pathways for resilience

Myanmar's agrifood system is central to the country's economy and to the livelihoods of most of its population, having historically accounted for roughly almost half of GDP and two-thirds of employment. Since 2021, the political crisis, intensifying conflict and insecurity, climate shocks, and a major earthquake have placed the system under sustained and compounding stress. Drawing on evidence collected between 2021 and 2025, this paper provides a snapshot of where the system stands following this period of crisis and identifies opportunities for strengthening its resilience going forward.

Private sector actors have been central to sustaining the agrifood system's resilience since 2021. Input retailers have maintained the physical availability of fertilizer, seeds, and agro-chemicals, even in insecure areas, while mechanization service providers have continued to supply labor-saving services through flexible payment arrangements. Private agribusinesses have absorbed the contraction in formal credit, now accounting for roughly three-quarters of fertilizer credit sources, and have become the dominant providers of extension, both in-person and digital. These actors are operating under significant financial stress, but they have sustained farmers’ access to inputs, services, credit, and advice during a period when these would otherwise have likely collapsed.

Input costs have risen significantly since 2022, with agricultural wages, mechanization costs, and fertilizer prices all rising substantially. Farmers have responded by partially shifting toward lower-cost production practices, including direct seeding, which carries an estimated yield penalty of approximately 15 percent compared to transplanted rice. Promoting appropriate agricultural technologies in conflict- and climate-affected areas requires targeted attention, particularly for smallholders and more remote households. Sustaining and expanding development assistance alongside humanitarian assistance will be important to support the transition toward more productive and sustainable farming systems, with scaling domestic production of organic soil amendments and expanding mechanization services.

Agricultural extension use rebounded to 38 percent in the 2025 dry season, with the private sector now the dominant provider and digital channels expanding rapidly. Given persistently low and unequal access to extension services, more inclusive outreach combining targeted in-person support in underserved areas with strengthened digital delivery is needed, with particular attention to women, less educated, remote, and conflict-affected farmers. As agrochemical distributors dominate both in-person and digital advisory services, promoting high-quality agronomic content and ensuring clear separation between technical advice and product promotion is important. The rapid expansion of digital platforms creates opportunities but requires investments in digital literacy, content quality, and monitoring systems to assess impact. Partnerships between digital platforms and large firms could also support traceability and quality requirements for export markets.

AICCRA institutionalizes training on gender-responsive cost-benefit analysis of climate information services within two Africa-wide capacity development institutions

Between 2021 and 2025, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) developed and piloted a gender-responsive cost–benefit analysis (CBA) methodology for Climate Information Services (CIS) in Africa. Through methodological research, a toolkit, and stakeholder consultations, the approach was tested in Kenya and subsequently integrated into selected training programs at the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR). Course materials were also made available through the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) Regional e-Learning Platform, providing access for use in academic and professional training contexts.

Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023)

1. Integrated resilience programming (IRP) works. The IRP significantly improved household food security, with participating households recording an average 6.6 point increase in Food Consumption Scores (FCS) and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies, and increased resilience capacities, compared with nonparticipants, underscoring the value of multisectoral, layered interventions.

2. High economic returns are achievable in fragile contexts. Overall, the IRP delivered a benefitcost ratio (BCR) of 3.98, meaning every US$1 invested generated nearly US$4 in measurable benefits.

3. Nutrition interventions (treatment of acute malnutrition and blanket supplementary feeding) yield the strongest returns. Treatment of acute malnutrition and preventive nutrition support for women and children produced BCRs ranging from 6:1 to 9:1, validating global evidence on the cost-effectiveness of nutrition investments.

4. Knowledge-based and community-led interventions are transformative. Training and sensitization activities achieved the highest BCR (20:1) for resilience outcomes, highlighting the long-term payoffs of behavior change, empowerment, and knowledge transfer activities.

5. Cereal banks, particularly when combined with Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) through cash transfers, contributed to improved food security and resilience outcomes. The Cereal Bank + FFA Cash Transfers combination achieved balanced gains across key indicators (FCS +9.2, rCSI –3.4, RCS +10.4), highlighting its role in stabilizing seasonal food availability and access. However, despite these outcome improvements, the cost-effectiveness was modest, with BCRs ranging from 0.4 to 0.6—suggesting that while the intervention supports resilience, its financial return per dollar invested may be limited under current implementation models.

6. Bundled interventions outperform stand-alone ones. Layered approaches—particularly FFA Cash Transfers combined with School Feeding—produced the largest FCS gains (+5.7 points; BCR = 2.85), reinforcing WFP’s integrated “three-pronged approach” to resilience-building.

7. Short-term transfers remain essential but less cost-efficient. Lean season food and cash distributions provided vital relief but yielded lower long-term returns (BCR < 1), emphasizing the need to balance immediate humanitarian needs with investments in sustainability. 8. Strategic scaling of high-return interventions is crucial. Scaling nutrition, training, and cereal bank programs, while optimizing the design and sequencing of combined packages, could maximize impact per dollar spent and strengthen resilience dividends. 9. Resilience is a smart investment. The findings demonstrate that resilience programming is not only a humanitarian necessity but also a financially sound strategy—reducing long-term aid dependency, improving livelihoods, and fostering local self-reliance across fragile environments in Chad. 10. Short-term coping behavior responds more slowly than food security and resilience capacity outcomes, highlighting the need for sustained and sequenced support. While IRP interventions generated significant improvements in food consumption and resilience capacity, reductions in severe coping strategies were not observed in the short term. This underscores that behavioral change lags behind stabilization and capacity-building gains, and that resilience impacts should be assessed over longer horizons rather than through immediate reductions in negative coping alone.

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

Cassava seed entrepreneurship is critical for strengthening seed systems and advancing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. This study examines the determinants of smallholder participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship and simulates the effects of targeted policy interventions using survey data from 993 cassava farmers in Benue State. The analysis applies a binary logit framework with counterfactual scenario simulations and production-regime, specific estimations to account for heterogeneity between low- and high-productivity environments, alongside additional robustness checks. The results show that access to credit (dy/dx = 13.2%, p <0.01), adoption of improved cassava varieties (dy/dx = 14.3%, p < 0.01), use of an area-calculation mobile application (dy/dx = 7.1%, p < 0.05), and access to extension services (dy/dx = 5.2%, p < 0.05) significantly increase the likelihood of participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship. Gender-disaggregated analysis indicates that male farmers have a modest but meaningful advantage (β = 0.92, dy/dx = 5.8%), reflecting differential access to productive resources and institutional support. The production-regime analysis reveals important structural differences in participation drivers. In low-productivity environments, participation is primarily constrained by financial capital, with credit access emerging as the dominant determinant. In contrast, in high-productivity environments, participation is more strongly influenced by technological complementarities, particularly adoption of improved varieties, digital decision-support tools, and extension services that enhance productivity and market coordination. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial engagement is context-dependent rather than uniform across farming systems. Policy simulations further indicate that the joint provision of credit and improved varieties could increase participation probabilities by 36.1 percentage points for men, 32.0 percentage points for youth (≤35 years), and 25.8 percentage points for women, demonstrating substantial untapped entrepreneurial potential among women and youth if structural barriers are relaxed. As part of the robustness analysis, conflict exposure, used as a proxy for local political instability, shows a positive and statistically significant association with participation, suggesting that farmers in conflict-affected environments may adopt cassava seed entrepreneurship as a resilience or income-diversification strategy. Consistency across alternative specifications confirms that institutional access, technological adoption, and productive capacity remain more decisive for participation than most demographic characteristics. Overall, the study underscores the need for gender and youth-responsive policies that integrate financial inclusion, technological support, institutional strengthening, context-sensitive interventions as well as attention to productivity regimes and local security conditions, to promote inclusive and resilient cassava seed systems in Nigeria.

IFPRI: Africa strategy: Partnering for evidence-based transformation

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s Africa Strategy focuses on achieving impact through partnerships, research and evidence-building, capacity development, and innovative communication and knowledge sharing in support of Africa’s agenda for agrifood systems transformation. Building on decades of high-impact engagement at continental, regional, national, and subnational levels, IFPRI aims to sharpen and intensify its work in a rapidly transforming Africa. Through deepened partnerships with African institutions, IFPRI plans to help generate high-quality evidence to drive impact across Africa’s fast-changing agrifood systems and economies to support sustainable, inclusive economic growth and open new opportunities for a better future.

SAA’s Extension Model: Scaling Sustainable Farming in Nigeria

In Nigeria, scaling agricultural innovations faces a major enabling environment challenge. This includes weak national extension systems, low extension officer-to-farmer ratio (1:1,800–1:3,000) and ineffective input-output market linkages, limiting technology adoption, and value addition for smallholders. The Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) addressed this through its Value-Chain Based Extension (VCBE) Models, including Commodity Association Trader-Trainers and post-harvest centers, fostering public-private partnerships to build capacity, improve group dynamics, and create aggregation hubs. This innovative extension model has mobilized agricultural produce valued at approximately USD 3.9 million and delivered significant impact for smallholder farmers. The approach has doubled maize yields—from traditional levels of 2,438 kg/ha to 4,823 kg/ha—while enhancing incomes for more than 455,200 farmers. These outcomes are strengthening both food security and economic resilience across participating communities.

The impact of a continuum of care intervention from prevention to treatment on child wasting compared to usual community group activities: A cluster randomized controlled trial in Mali

Background
Child wasting is associated with a high mortality risk and remains a persistent public health challenge.

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the impact of an intervention strengthening the continuum of care of child wasting from prevention, screening, and referral to treatment in Mali.

Methods
A two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted using two study designs to evaluate impact and pathways: i) a longitudinal study of children enrolled at 6 months (n=2,324) with monthly follow-up for 3–6 months to assess wasting prevalence (primary outcome); ii) a longitudinal study of all children 6–23 months admitted to outpatient therapeutic programs (OTP; n=7,104) assessing recovery and adherence. Additional OTP coverage surveys were conducted at the end of the study. In both study arms, nutrition activity support groups (NASG) screened children for wasting and provided caregiver behavior change communication (BCC). The intervention arm additionally received small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS), child-centered BCC, family-led screening, and follow-up on referred wasting cases to support OTP admission and adherence.

Results
The intervention did not impact wasting prevalence but reduced the incidence of wasting (relative risk (RR): 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.99) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.57, 0.89). The intervention significantly increased wasting screening coverage by 37 pp (95%CI: 31, 44) and SAM treatment coverage by 15 pp (95%CI: 0.35, 30). No impacts of the intervention on OTP recovery or adherence were found. NASGs often replaced the monthly home visits with community gatherings to deliver the intervention. NASGs also often distributed SQ-LNS to children they identified with wasting instead of referring them to the OTP.

Conclusions
Strengthening the continuum of care of wasting through community groups reduced the incidence of wasting and SAM and improved screening coverage, which translated into a modest gain in SAM treatment coverage.

Cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda using [near] real-time market data

Countries are increasingly benchmarking food assistance and labour laws on the cost of nationally recommended diets. Benchmarking is made against national annual estimates, which fail to account for sub-national and intra-annual variation in cost, blunting the impact of policies. Using monthly market price data collected by the Government of Rwanda (April 2019-March 2024), we estimate the cost of the country’s proposed food-based dietary guidelines, using a standardised diet costing methodology. We found rural areas experienced greater inflation in diet cost over the study period than urban areas (41% vs 28%), yet the recommended diet was 12.7% higher in urban locations. Diet costs were approximately 6% lower in districts with international border crossings to Tanzania, but 7% more in those with borders with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Fruits and vegetables (110% and 71%) and starchy staples (86% and 83%) contributed most to cost increases in rural and urban locations respectively. Seasonal diet cost fluctuations were also evident with a seasonal amplitude of 5.6% and 6.9% in rural and urban locations, synchronised to Rwanda’s agricultural calendar. 70% of employed Rwandans would find the recommended diet unaffordable, if spending 52% of wages on food. Diet costs varied 4.2-fold across all districts throughout the study period, meaning that uniform national policies to address costs and affordability would be systematically inadequate in high-cost settings and wasteful in low-cost ones. That such spatial–temporal variation exists in a small, relatively market integrated country like Rwanda suggests variation would be at least equally consequential in other low and lower-middle-income countries. High-frequency and sub-national monitoring of prices, diet costs, and affordability provides essential intelligence for policymakers to enable spatially and seasonally targeted interventions, improving both the adequacy and efficiency of food policy.

Myanmar monthly food price report – April 2026

Rice prices increased sharply month-on-month in April 2026 (up 8.9 percent) and remained broadly stable year-on-year, suggesting a continued recovery following earlier declines driven by lower international rice prices and strong domestic supply. However, regional price disparities remain significant across major producing and deficit areas.

Most export crop prices showed relatively limited month-on-month movement, particularly for pulses, reflecting stable regional demand from China and India during the Thingyan holiday period. In contrast, maize prices increased sharply following expectations of the reopening of the Thailand–Myanmar border trade route.

Vegetable prices showed mixed trends in April 2026. Onion, chili, and garlic prices increased modestly month-on-month, partly linked to improving border trade expectations and lower domestic garlic production, while potato prices declined sharply amid increased inflows of imported Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand.

Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher year-on-year, led by mutton, pork, and fish, reflecting continued supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and export demand. Month-on-month changes remained relatively modest, although extreme summer temperatures affected poultry, livestock, and aquaculture production conditions during April.

Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher year-on-year, led by mutton, pork, and fish, reflecting continued supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and export demand. Month-on-month changes remained relatively modest, although extreme summer temperatures affected poultry, livestock, and aquaculture production conditions during April.

Intensification without empowerment? Gendered time burdens in India's livestock sector

This paper provides a nationally representative assessment of changes in women’s work in livestock rearing in rural India using unit-level data from the Time Use Surveys (TUS) 2019 and 2024. By situating the analysis within debates on the feminization of agriculture, the study examines shifts in participation and time allocation in livestock rearing among rural working-age individuals (15–59 years). While women’s participation in economic work increased modestly between 2019 and 2024, this expansion continues to coexist with a persistently high burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving services. Within agriculture, livestock emerges as a relatively more dynamic and gendered domain of work.

Using the 2016 International Classification of Activities for Time-Use Statistics (ICATUS), livestock activities are disaggregated into own use and market-oriented livestock activities. Descriptive evidence shows that women’s participation in livestock activities increased from 11 percent in 2019 to 15 percent in 2024, with a particularly notable rise in market-oriented livestock activities across several states and agroecological zones. Although crop husbandry continues to dominate agricultural employment, both incidence and intensity of participation of women in livestock rearing has visibly increased.

Regression results indicate a positive and significant year effect for total livestock and livestock activities, but not for livestock own-use activities, suggesting that the observed increase is primarily associated with market-oriented engagement rather than subsistence expansion. Education exhibits a strong negative association with livestock time use, especially for women, indicating that livestock remains a fallback activity under constrained employment options. Gelbach decomposition further shows that changes in age composition and educational attainment account for a substantial share of the explained variation, while monthly per capita consumption expenditure has a stronger and more consistently significant association with women’s livestock time use than men’s. Overall, the findings point to incremental change within a persistently gendered structure of rural time allocation.

Varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration for major crops in Ethiopia: Evidence from household surveys and field sample genotyping

Although continuous genetic improvement of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers is a well-known route to increasing agricultural productivity, our understanding of varietal adoption, turnover, and concentration in farmers’ fields is limited. Often, the greatest challenge to our understanding lies in the measurement approach (farmer self-reports versus DNA fingerprinting), as well as in the analysis and interpretation of the available data. To address this issue, we explore variety-level data on four main crops (wheat, maize, teff, and common bean) in Ethiopia. We estimate the area-weighted average varietal age (AWAVA) of each crop using data from a nationally representative sample survey of farm households and a unique genotyping dataset based on seed samples collected from the fields of sampled farm households. We also calculate indices to explore the concentration of varieties in farmers’ fields, which serves to substantiate the varietal age analysis. Overall, results show considerable variation in average varietal age across crops, ranging from 12.5 years for wheat to 28.2 years for common bean. Analysis of area shares of individual varieties for each crop indicates that slower varietal turnover (i.e., higher varietal age) is driven by the continued dominance of older varieties, despite the presence of newer varieties in the market. Slow varietal turnover in the presence of new varieties suggests the need for greater investment in the systems and markets through which seed is distributed to farmers. This includes stronger coordination of research and extension activities, improvement of variety-specific popularization and marketing efforts, and continued experimentation in seed sector development in Ethiopia.

Farming in crisis: Livelihood challenges and resilience in conflict-affected Sudan: Insights from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey

Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy.

This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season.

The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile.

However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges.

Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict.

Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities.

The rise of ganyu in Malawi

A quiet but important transformation is taking place in Malawi’s rural labor markets. Increasingly, rural Malawians are working fewer hours on their own farms and spending more time in ganyu – an informal labor arrangement based on day- or piece‑work, typically requiring very low levels of skill and offering low and uncertain pay. While ganyu has long existed in Malawi, its scale and role in rural livelihoods have changed markedly. It is no longer merely a short‑term coping strategy but has become a central source of employment for a growing share of the rural population.

This shift is especially pronounced among men, young people, and individuals with little land and limited formal education. At the same time, those who rely more heavily on ganyu are finding it increasingly difficult to secure adequate and stable access to food. The rapid expansion of ganyu has important implications for the kind of policies that will advance inclusive development in Malawi.

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups.

The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers.

In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

IFPRI’s research on true cost accounting: Unlocking the true value of food for sustainable agrifood systems

Sustainable agrifood systems must ensure food security and nutrition while balancing economic, social, and environmental objectives. Yet food costs more than the consumer price, due to hidden costs to human health, the environment, and social and economic equality. Estimates suggest that these unaccounted‑for costs exceed US$11 trillion annually, representing nearly 10% of global GDP. Redesigning agrifood systems requires a clear understanding of external costs to inform policies that balance health, economic, social, and environmental goals.

True Cost Accounting (TCA) methods measure and economically value the environmental, health, and social impacts of agrifood systems. By making these externalities visible, TCA supports more informed decision-making for governments, businesses, farmers, financial institutions, donors, and consumers. Without levers like TCA to align agrifood systems with climate, health, and equity agendas, policymakers enact policies drawn from incomplete or overly generalized analyses.

Locally led climate adaptation: Business unusual for agricultural research

"There are increasing calls for the fostering of climate-resilient food, land and water systems that are sustainable, equitable and inclusive. Climate adaptation endeavors, however, often do not position local people’s needs, capacities and preferences at the core of climate action; efforts often bypass the poorest and most vulnerable and in some cases exacerbate extant inequities [1,2]. There is a need for a more radical locally led climate adaptation (LLCA) approach that goes beyond buzzwords and rhetoric to ensure that climate action is genuinely led by those communities who are affected and who are best placed to understand their own priorities and what is relevant within a given context.
Coger et al. (2022) identified eight principles for LLCA. These have been widely endorsed including by investors in climate action such as the World Bank. There are few tools, methodologies and approaches, however, to guide the implementation of LLCA, and a lack of evidence on its efficacy [3]. Operationalization of LLCA is further stymied by rigid policy and funding frameworks that remain embedded in traditional hierarchies of decision-making, agenda setting, power relations and short-term thinking/action. Closing the gap between LLCA rhetoric and reality requires a business unusual agricultural research approach. This poses both a challenge and opportunity for agricultural researchers and other actors involved in LLCA."

Optimizing school meals in Ghana: Integrating new food and nutrient standards with aspects of affordability, cultural acceptability and environmental sustainability

Objectives:
To optimize school food baskets in Ghana to meet newly proposed food and nutrition targets while considering cultural acceptability and cost.

Design:
Modeling study. Data on existing school meal menus was collected from various regions to provide baseline inputs. Linear programming (LP) was used to model school meal baskets that satisfied minimum nutrient and food targets for school meals while meeting cost and acceptability constraints. Five LP models were tested, each varying in budget constraints and acceptability/food-based parameters.

Results:
Baseline school food baskets were significantly deficient in energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, folate, vitamin B12 and vitamin C compared to food and nutrient standards for school meals in Ghana. Optimization resulted in school food baskets that met cost, nutrient and food-based/acceptability targets but with substantial deviations from baseline. Achieving nutritional adequacy within cost limits increased reliance on animal-source foods and led to higher environmental impacts, indicating trade-offs between nutrition, affordability, and environmental sustainability.

Conclusion:
The study underscores LP’s potential for enhancing school meals in Ghana but highlights the need for increased financial investment for reaching dietary goals. Addressing local realities and cultural preferences is essential for implementing effective, sustainable school meal strategies and improving child health.

National and sub-national delivery of balanced energy and protein (BEP) supplements to pregnant and lactating women in LMICs: Lessons from multi-country implementation case studies

The World Health Organization recommends the use of balanced energy protein (BEP) supplements during pregnancy in settings with a ≥ 20% prevalence of underweight women of reproductive age to reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. Several countries are implementing BEP supplementation in varied formats. However, the implementation and monitoring of outcomes remain poor across countries. This qualitative study explores the experiences, opportunities, and challenges related to implementing national and sub-national BEP supplementation programs in nine countries (12 countries originally invited) to inform best practices. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 personnel involved in its implementation in Haiti, India, Malawi, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sri Lanka between October 2024 and March 2025. The interviewees in each country were predominantly implementation experts but also government officials involved in the provision of BEP supplementation. The transcripts were analyzed thematically, focusing on acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, cost, feasibility, and sustainability of outcomes. Results: In non-humanitarian settings (five countries), BEP supplementation was commonly integrated into the governmental health system or social protection programs. However, humanitarian contexts (four countries) often relied on partner-led (e.g., UN organizations) implementation. Clear operational protocols, including behavioral change communication strategies, facilitated the implementation. Community-based organization partnerships strengthened adherence; however, implementation costs, stock shortages, and geographic inequities in coverage varied and were limiting factors in scale-up, primarily in humanitarian contexts. Conclusion: In sum, two distinct implementation pathways emerged: government-led models characterized by policy integration, national ownership, and more stable systems, and humanitarian or donor-led models shaped by crisis response, external dependency, and non-committal challenges. Successful implementation of BEP supplements depends on the presence of effective policies, context-adapted design, integration into health systems, consistent funding, and effective monitoring. There is a need for implementation research to generate evidence on best practices when implementing BEP supplementation programs.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 4

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined since its initial development in the early 1990s, IMPACT version 4 represents the latest iteration of the model, offering an enhanced treatment of complex issues such as climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 4 modeling system integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

A review of methods and tools for youth research in food, land and water systems

Youth participation is essential for fostering innovation in agri-food systems, ensuring food security, strengthening climate resilience and generating employment opportunities for young people. While there is growing advocacy for greater youth involvement in agrifood systems, we need better research methods and tools to understand how best to engage young men and women across all stages of value chains. This paper reviews existing resources that examine youth in agri-food systems, focusing on how current studies and tools assess key dimensions such as agency, access to resources, and the role of formal and informal institutions and structures, including gender and social norms. Using a structured search and screening process, we compiled and analyzed a wide range of publications and methodological tools, with a focus in developing countries. Overall, we found that while youth-related themes are increasingly recognized, substantial gaps remain in how these dimensions and themes are measured, documented and applied in practice. The findings highlight the need for more consistent methodological guidance and more comprehensive tools to support research and program design on youth in agri-food systems.

Combine harvester service providers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a January–February 2026 phone survey of 325 combine harvester service provider (CHSPs), offering insights into the 2025 monsoon season.

Key Findings
Acres harvested declined by 11 percent (7 percent in the Dry Zone, 11 percent in the Delta), with 61 percent of CHSPs reporting lower demand, associated with poor rice price incentives in the Delta and movement restrictions in the Dry Zone.
Nominal service charges fell by a median of 6 percent, concentrated in the Delta where fuel costs declined, while Dry Zone charges remained flat reflecting limited fuel savings and a restricted operating environment.
Most CHSPs (91 percent) extended credit to farmers without interest, and 74 percent provided more financial assistance than the previous year, highlighting their role as an important source of informal credit.
Cash flow problems affected 26 percent of CHSPs, driven by declining revenues and rising costs that may be understated in real terms given Myanmar's persistently high inflation, with many coping by borrowing, selling assets, or drawing on other income.
Emerging fuel supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict pose a significant risk to the 2026 monsoon season, potentially limiting CHSP operations at a time when farmers may also face fertilizer shortages, threatening agricultural production.

Recommended Actions
De-risk credit for mechanization services by expanding farmers' access to affordable formal credit or introducing partial guarantee schemes.
Improve mobility and security for CHSP operations through greater transparency and reductions of checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads.
Support training and retention of machine operators to address shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity.

Under the weight of provision: Gendered mental load among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Invisible mental strain affects women and men, especially in rural areas. The effects of this strain can influence collective and economic decisions, impacting resilience in low-resource agricultural communities. Using qualitative data collected from focus group discussions with smallholder farmers in Western Kenya, we explored gendered strains of women and men, their social and psychological consequences, and the gender empathy gap. We conducted focus group discussions with 56 farmers and found that expectations of the roles of women and men in the household were clear. The “invisible burden” was present in the pressure to be hardworking and to provide financial means for the family as a man; and to care for the family and farm as a woman. The strain led to stress, worry, and deterioration of mental health, contributing to despondency, isolation, household conflict, and even mental breakdowns. Household members coped with the psychological strain in different ways. Men tended to use avoidance mechanisms, isolate themselves, or turn to alcohol consumption. Women mentioned talking to others about the strain. Both women and men also reached out to other people, took some kind of action, made plans or relied on their faith in God. Both women and men showed empathy toward one another; that is, they recognized the strain and the effects on their spouse. However, women appeared to show more empathy than men. Thus, the breadwinner strain borne by men and the family load borne by women was an important factor in rural areas, affecting household relations and decisions, which can ultimately affect household resilience. Given the negative social and psychological consequences of this invisible burden, mental health literacy trainings, gender transformative approaches, community dialogues, and gender-responsive extension services can be employed to help households to better cope with strain.

Evaluation of solar-powered cold storage and evaporative cooling system as off-grid methods for postharvest vegetable storage: Evidence from a laboratory Experiment in Nigeria

This study examined the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool storage and an off-grid, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to analyze the performance of cooling systems. Tomato (United Trading Company (UTC) variety), orange (Dan Benue variety) and carrot (Orange Chantenay) were obtained from the international fruits market in Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The items were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar-powered cold storage, and metal-in-wall evaporative cooling systems. Mass loss, color, hardness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality indicators tested. The study shows that the solar-powered cold storage outperformed all other storage methods across the evaluated parameters; it preserved fruit firmness, significantly reduced the rate of color change, and minimized mass and nutrient losses, outperforming the metal-in-wall evaporative cooling system. For instance, tomato mass losses observed in 24 days were 42.66, 63.79, and 85.45 percent in the solar-powered cold storage, evaporative coolant, and ambient storage, respectively. Economic advantages of the above technologies, however, require careful consideration of investment costs and longer-term durability and benefits.

Exploring good gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned

Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO's DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity.

Livelihood alternatives to labor migration: A choice experiment in Tajikistan

Labor migration is often driven by a need for income, and can also be motivated by a desire for higher earnings. A naïve assumption is therefore that an increase in local livelihood alternatives might reduce outmigration, something which has been found to hold true in some settings, but not in others. This study employs a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 408 rural respondents in Tajikistan—a country heavily reliant on remittances from abroad—to assess whether specific local income-generating opportunities, such as those offered through cash-for-work programs or through the provision of additional farmland, might affect stated preferences regarding migration. The study explores trade-offs between local income generating opportunities (wage employment, access to farmland, and irrigation infrastructure) and migration restrictions, i.e., hypothetical constraints on household members migrating abroad for a given duration. We rely on stated rather than revealed preferences to examine these trade-offs. Our findings lend some support to the idea that households are willing to accept outmigration restrictions in return for improved local income-generation opportunities, either through wage employment or own-farming. Yet, findings are heterogeneous and depend on the households’ current and anticipated reliance on labor migration.

Vertical integration and the modernization of staple food value chains: Evidence from Myanmar’s rice sector

Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernizing agricultural value chains in low- and middle-income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm-level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in modernizing domestic value chains is limited, and tends to focus on foreign direct investment and high-value food products. We study the rice value chain – the most important staple in Southeast Asia – in Myanmar and use unique data from domestic rice mills and farmers to analyze millers’ expansion into other businesses and services. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post-farm levels and highlighting a co-development of modern processing and vertical integration. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post-farm value chain segments, highlighting the co-development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services – especially post-farm – and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms.

Myanmar monthly food price report – March 2026

Rice prices in March 2026 remained lower year-on-year (down 9 percent), although they increased slightly month-on-month, indicating a recovery following earlier declines driven by lower international prices and strong domestic supply. While easing pressure on consumers, these trends continue to raise concerns for paddy producers, who face rising input costs and fuel constraints.

Export crop prices showed relatively limited movement this month, suggesting a pause in momentum after previous gains driven by the revised foreign exchange policy and stronger international market demand.

Vegetable prices declined month-on-month, reflecting increased market supply during the peak harvest season. Prices of garlic, onion, and chili fell as new season’s produce entered the market, outweighing ongoing supply disruptions. In contrast, potato prices continued to increase due to weather-related production constraints,

Animal-sourced food prices continued to rise sharply year-on-year, led by mutton, chicken, and fish, reflecting supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and strong export demand. However, month-on-month changes were relatively modest, indicating short-term price stability.

The conflict in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of the world’s oil exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports pass. These developments are especially concerning for Myanmar’s agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transport, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. In addition, disruptions in fertilizer supply could adversely affect the upcoming monsoon season.

Five misconceptions distorting food policy in Malawi: A joint NPC-IFPRI position paper

Among countries not affected by conflict, Malawi has the lowest GDP per capita, and its economy has been shrinking for much of the past five years. External shocks have undoubtedly strained an already fragile economy, but policy choices have further stifled growth and amplified vulnerabilities. Many of these choices are rooted in persistent misconceptions, that distort decision-making and undermine progress. This position paper identifies and challenges those misconceptions. We focus only on beliefs that are widespread, lead to seriously distorted policy choices, and are genuinely held by well-intentioned actors committed to inclusive development in Malawi. These actors are our primary audience, as those without this underlying objective are unlikely to be swayed. Our list is selective rather than exhaustive, concentrating on misconceptions that are particularly pervasive and influential in the food systems policy space, and for which robust, evidence-based arguments exist.

Linking Malawian smallholders to larger-scale agribusiness enterprises for inclusive development: A conceptual critique of the anchor enterprise model

While smallholder farming has been and remains at the center of agricultural transformation efforts in Malawi, the limited success of smallholder-centered agricultural development strategies has led policymakers to explore alternative approaches. One emerging approach involves larger farms or agribusiness firms partnering with smallholder farming households, in what we will refer to as an anchor enterprise model. Under this model, smallholder farming households contribute land and labor to produce crops or livestock products that serve as inputs for, or are marketed jointly with, the anchor enterprise. In return, the anchor enterprise provides support such as technical assistance, inputs, transport, or storage. This partnership is intended to be commercial and mutually beneficial. While support for such partnerships is growing and the anchor enterprise model is increasingly being used in development programming in Malawi, there is still little clarity on what they involve, what they aim to achieve, and the conditions they need for success. This study seeks to address these questions and assess whether such linkages between larger farms or agrifood processors and smallholder farming households can contribute to sustainable, resilient, and inclusive wealth creation in Malawi. The findings from this study are also summarized in a policy note (Benson, Cockx, and De Weerdt, 2025).

Anchor enterprise partnerships can be valuable development models in specific contexts. In particular, they can help both larger enterprises and smallholders overcome constraints imposed by weaknesses in Malawi’s factor, input, and output markets, enabling both land and labor to be used more productively. However, the viability of the model depends heavily on the nature of the product at its center. Anchor enterprise models are generally not suitable for grain or other generic staple crops. For such products, partnerships are costly and carry high risk since farmers can easily find and sell to other buyers than their anchor enterprise partner if market prices rise above the agreed price for the partnership (side-selling). Similarly, if market prices drop below the agreed price, enterprises may buy elsewhere (side-buying). Rather, these partnerships are most likely to be economically justified for higher value, less widely grown, more specialized, more complex to produce or process, or highly perishable agricultural products. For these products, the risk of default is lower as the reduction in transaction costs provides both parties with strong incentives for maintaining a longer-term commercial relationship.

These incentives are especially important as the legal framework governing commercial partnerships in Malawi's agrifood sector remains underdeveloped. Formal contracts were found to be important but not central to successful anchor enterprise operations. Partnerships that endure are built on a strong economic rationale, clear financial incentives for all parties, and a degree of bilateral dependency.

Anchor enterprise models cannot be profitably and sustainably employed for many types of commercial agricultural production in Malawi. Consequently, only a small portion of farming households can directly participate, and the poorest and most vulnerable are generally less likely to be included. Nonetheless, where such models work well, they can deliver indirect benefits to the broader rural community, including its poorer and more vulnerable members, by stimulating local demand for labor, goods, and services. Complementary interventions aimed at strengthening the capacity of the poorest households to capture these indirect benefits may, however, be necessary for the model to contribute meaningfully to inclusive development.

A model centered around commercial farms or agro-processors requires an enabling environment for such enterprises to operate effectively. This includes macroeconomic stability, an investment climate that facilitates private investment in agribusiness, and trade and exchange rate policies that support formal exports. To be sustainable, anchor enterprise models must be grounded in a strong economic rationale for partnering. Government and development partners can, however, support such partnerships without eroding their commercial foundations by, for example, investing in new institutions for conflict prevention and resolution, providing enterprises with assistance in managing relationships with smallholder partners, organizing financial and business training for farmers to reduce information asymmetries, or supporting organizations that can act as effective third-party intermediaries.

Origins and causes of Sudan’s conflict: Domestic and international perspectives

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its subsidiary paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in April 2023 follows a succession of civil wars that devasted the economically marginalized, socially ostracized, and politically disenfranchised southern and western regions of Sudan, but it has now brought the conflict to the country’s geographic and economic power center. Unlike the decades-long North–South civil wars or the ongoing deadly conflict in Darfur, today’s conflict began in Khartoum and the agriculturally rich heartland of Central Sudan, bringing death and destruction to the central Aj Jazirah and Sennar states, before moving south and west to Darfur and Kordofan. The same historical, economic, political, and ethnic factors that fueled those previous conflicts are at play now, as the belligerent factions seek to control the country’s resources. This time, however, after working together to halt efforts to democratize Sudan, the SAF and RSF turned on each other, each seeking to dominate the kleptocratic state system.

Introduction [in War and resilience: The multifaceted impacts of Sudan's conflict and pathways to recovery]

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood system and broader economic structure. Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, it has escalated into the world’s largest displacement crisis, with nearly 12 million people—nearly one-third of Sudan’s population-forced to flee their homes, including 4.5 million refugees who have sought safety in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Conflict-induced trade dynamics: A gravity framework analysis of Sudan’s agricultural exports

Long before the April 2023 eruption of armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s economy was crippled by conflicts. The country’s agricultural production and productivity, internal trade, exports, and overall macroeconomic performance have all been adversely affected, and disruptions to the agrifood system, food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition will likely remain if the conflict continues.

State failure and elite capture of Sudan’s agrifood system

Since the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023, nearly 12 million people have been displaced, and an estimated 44,000 have been directly killed by the violence (UNHCR 2026; ACLED 2025). Many more are estimated to have suffered from war-related disease and malnutrition (Roberts 2025). The decimation of the capital city of Khartoum—the epicenter of the jubilant civilian uprisings in 2019—epitomizes the country’s short journey from a promising democratic opening to a failed state.

Worsening food security in Sudan amid conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated since April 2023 into a significant crisis, affecting the nation’s stability and security and worsening humanitarian conditions. The conflict has severely degraded the food security of many Sudanese households, with profound effects on their diets, coping strategies, and overall welfare.

Human capital at risk: The impact of conflict on health and education in Sudan

Human capital, including the knowledge, skills, and health of a population, is the foundation for economic growth and development (Lucas Jr. 1988; Mankiw et al. 1992; Pelinescu 2015). Healthcare and education stand out as critical pillars that directly enhance human capital, influencing individual well-being, workforce productivity, and development (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1995; Schultz 2003; Hanushek and Woessman 2012). Access to quality healthcare ensures a healthy and productive population capable of contributing to economic activities, while education equips individuals with the skills and knowledge essential for innovation and global competitiveness. Together, these sectors constitute the backbone of a nation’s resilience and long-term prosperity (Kim and Ahn 2020; Wang and Gu 2024).

Cereal production, markets, and policy in Sudan

Cereal production has long been a cornerstone of Sudan’s food security and economy, especially wheat, sorghum, and millet. Given the importance of these staples, policy related to imports and prices of wheat (and sorghum, to a lesser extent) has major effects on food production and consumption. In particular, before 2023, government interventions in wheat markets involved huge implicit—and sometimes explicit—fiscal costs, including interventions on large food aid inflows, official sales prices, direct controls on commercial imports, and subsidies on wheat milling (D’Silva and Badawi 1988; Faki and Taha 2009; Abdelaziz et al. 2022). These policies have generally benefited urban consumers at the expense of rural producers and have not always been well-targeted to the poor (Resnick 2021; Resnick 2026, Chapter 3 in this volume).

Economywide impact of Sudan’s conflict and pathways to recovery

Massive human displacement and economic devastation have resulted from Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of February 2, 2026, nearly 12 million people were internally displaced in Sudan, and 4.5 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries (UNHCR 2026). Public services, including health, education, and sanitation, have collapsed in many regions, compounding the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the socioeconomic fabric of the country.

Monitoring economic activities: Leveraging satellite and remote-sensing technologies

Understanding disruptions to economic activities in conflict-affected regions such as Sudan is essential for policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and researchers seeking to develop effective response strategies. However, traditional data collection methods, such as official government statistics and household surveys, become unreliable or impractical in these contexts due to security risks, displacement, and institutional breakdowns. In such environments, satellite and remote-sensing technologies provide a powerful alternative, offering near real-time, scalable, and objective insights into economic disturbances, infrastructure damage, population displacement, and environmental degradation. Advances in Earth observation technologies now allow researchers to monitor the economic consequences of conflicts with great accuracy and efficiency, even in regions where on-the-ground data collection is impossible (Hoogeveen et al. 2016; Hoogeveen and Pape 2020; Abay et al. 2023).

Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity amid conflict

Sudan is currently experiencing one of the most severe food security crises globally. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) more than 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—are acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with more than 146,000 people facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) as of February 2026 (IPC 2025). As of September 2025, El-Fasher (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified as experiencing famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026. The crisis has also led to the acute malnutrition of 4.7 million children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls (IPC 2024a).

A Sudanese strategy for postconflict, agriculture-led transformative growth

The intense factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) that erupted in April 2023 has devastated Sudan. This war is a tragic legacy of the kleptocratic regime of General Omar Al-Bashir, which ruled the country from 1989 until it was deposed by the leadership of the two armies in 2019, following a massive popular uprising in December 2018 (see Chapter 2 for details). The presence of a divided military institution in Sudan has been attributed to the coup-proofing strategy of “coup-fearing” autocrats, who were willing to undermine the state’s military effectiveness to extend their own tenure (Powell 2014).