Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

Nudging farmers toward disease-free shrimp technology with financial incentives: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks.

Women’s empowerment and child nutrition in the Asia – Pacific region: Evidence from Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste

Adverse nutritional outcomes for children under five remain a significant challenge around the world, and there is growing evidence that women’s empowerment is associated with better children’s nutritional outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the association between women’s empowerment and the probability of stunting, wasting, underweight status, and achieving dietary diversity for children under five using a cross-country sample of Demographic and Health Survey data from three countries in the Asia – Pacific region: Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. We construct the Survey-based Women’s Empowerment (SWPER) index as well as a slightly modified SWPER index using women’s reported experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) rather than attitudes toward domestic violence (employed in the original index). Our findings suggest that women’s empowerment as captured by the SWPER index is associated with a reduced incidence of stunting, wasting and underweight status and a higher probability that children achieve MDD, though this relationship is only weakly observed in Timor-Leste. In general, the index estimated using experience of IPV shows a clearer association with nutritional outcomes, vis-a-vis the index estimated using attitudes toward IPV.

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023).

Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Digital agricultural technology in Egypt: Insights from app developers

Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Gender roles in South Asian food systems

Food environments and behavioral drivers of food choice in South Asia

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers.

This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

Farming households' adaptation to climatic shocks in South Asia: A food systems perspective

Overview - Agrifood systems transformation in South Asia: An agenda for impact and learning at scale

Monitoring the impact of recent price volatility on food group consumption in Rwanda

This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks.

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

More land, more diverse diets? Exploring production and consumption trade-offs in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

When trade saves natural resources: Evidence from cereals trade in SADC

Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change. While global temperatures have risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, Africa has registered a 0.3°C increase (WMO, 2022). Beyond rising temperatures, Africa faces various related challenges, including rising sea levels, unpredictable rainfall leading to both droughts and severe storms, and increased threats from plant pests and animal diseases. As a result, the continent is expected to see a significant decline in arable land, further compromising its agricultural future. Specifically, southern Africa is highly climate vulnerable. Water scarcity is critical for food security, yet trade can help reallocate cereals from water-rich to water-scarce areas.

Indeed one often-overlooked aspect in the discussion about trade and climate change is how trade can actually help combat climate change. Indeed, when production is shifted from places that have limited environmental resources to those that are rich in them, the ecological footprint of economic activities can be lessened. For instance, international and regional trade have the potential to conserve water on both global and regional scales by exporting water-intensive goods from regions that have high water efficiency or abundant water resources to those with less availability (Fracasso 2014), yielding a much more efficient allocation of water resources around the world. SADC’s own regional water policy recognizes comparative advantage in water as a basis for trade integration (SADC 2005).

This policy note reviews virtual water trade in the SADC region and tests whether trade flows reflect countries’ comparative advantage in water endowment, with a focus on cereals. It first presents an overview of virtual water trade flows in the region and uses an econometric model to test the link between water endowments and the water content of trade flows. We conclude with a discussion and some policy implications.

IFPRI strategy 2026-2030: Food policy research for a changing world

IFPRI’s Strategy for 2026–2030 reaffirms the Institute’s commitment to providing research-based policy solutions. IFPRI works with partners to use the power of policy to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods, contribute to empowerment, and promote sustainability and climate resilience, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This new strategy responds to the many challenges and opportunities emerging today, from climate change to growing inequities to digital technologies and more. It combines a proven four-pronged research and engagement approach with five research themes that reflect a systems understanding of food policies—from farm to consumer. IFPRI’s research is designed to support impact at scale through country- and region-led policies that will help to sustainably end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies.

Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey.

The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Nutrition and dietary quality in Sri Lanka: Insights from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

Key findings and policy implications
• Dietary quality in Sri Lanka – defined in terms of consumption levels of different healthy food groups – falls well short of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health’s 2021 Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) targets, with clear imbalances across food groups.
• Heavy dependence on starchy staples. Starchy foods dense in calories but sparse in nutrients provide over 60% of total energy consumption, highlighting a strong over-consumption of rice.
• Low consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Intakes of fruits, dark green leafy vegetables (DGLVs), and legumes are at only about one-third of the recommended levels.
• Some households report zero consumption of healthy food groups. More than 30% of households report zero consumption of dairy foods in the past 7 days, while 15% report zero consumption of dark green leafy vegetables, and 5% zero fruit, indicating that important foods are absent from many household diets.
• Multidimensional dietary deprivation. Nearly all Sri Lankan households are deprived in at least one food group. A typical deprived household falls below the reference threshold in six to seven of eight food groups and consumes only about 37% of the recommended amounts for the foods in which consumption is lower than recommended.
• Significant dietary inequality across sectors. Dietary deprivation is most acute in the estate sector, while rural and urban areas fare moderately better.
• There is a clear need to promote healthy dietary diversification, especially higher consumption of fruits, legumes, vegetables and dairy, while moderating excess consumption of starchy staples.
• Institutionalize regular monitoring of diet deprivation, using the Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index and other dietary indicators to guide targeted nutrition interventions.
• Support further research on the drivers of dietary patterns in Sri Lanka to better understand its determinants and differences between sectors.

From pledges to action: NDC 3.0 for poverty reduction and climate justice in Nepal

Located in the heart of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, Nepal plays a vital geopolitical and ecological role in South Asia’s climate landscape. Although the country contributes less than 0.03 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions (MoFE 2020) and has extensive forest cover of 46 percent (MoFE 2025), it faces disproportionate risks from climate-induced disasters, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), erratic monsoons, and prolonged droughts. The HKH region spans eight countries and hosts 10 major river basins and more than 87,000 square kilometers of glaciers, delivering water and ecosystem services to more than 1.9 billion people downstream (ICIMOD 2025a). Within this complex hydrological system, Nepal's rivers—including the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali—not only sustain local livelihoods but also feed millions in India’s Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and even parts of China.

Climate justice is imperative in this context: Nepal’s low emissions profile stands in stark contrast to its high vulnerability (CVF 2024), requiring urgent attention to equity, adaptation finance, and inclusive development pathways. This policy note discusses Nepal’s role in climate justice diplomacy, examines the regional and country-level context of climate risk, and assesses Nepal’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to reframe climate action through a justice-centered lens.

Accessing Aswesuma: Key findings on Sri Lanka’s new social protection program from the bright 2024-25 national survey

• We use the nationally representative BRIGHT 2024-25 survey to document Aswesuma access at the national and subnational level, and among poor and food-insecure households
• At the time of the BRIGHT 2024-2025 survey, the Aswesuma program covered 29.1% of the Sri Lankan population compared to just 18.8% of the population under Samurdhi in 2016: a 10.3 percentage point improvement. However, at the time of the survey, the Aswesuma program has still not reached its target of 35% national population coverage.
• Encouragingly, the largest expansion of cash transfer access was in upland (Estate) districts, who had limited access to cash transfers under the previous Samurdhi program
• Aswesuma access among poor populations was highest in the Estate sector (56%), followed by the rural (46%) and urban populations (44%)
• Aswesuma transfers are unlikely to reduce employment or other income-generating activities among the poor, as Aswesuma cash transfers only represent 19% of the expenditures of the poorest 20% of households, and just 10% for the next poorest group.
• While Aswesuma transfers may protect households against low calorie intake (hunger), Aswesuma households still have low-quality diets, under-consuming fruits, vegetables, dairy, and legumes in particular
• Nutritional knowledge is also much poorer among Aswesuma beneficiaries than the rest of the Sri Lankan population, particularly knowledge of key micronutrient-rich foods
• These results imply the need for a wide range of policy-oriented research and follow-up surveys on drivers of access to Aswesuma, but also impacts of Aswesuma on key welfare indicators
• There is also a need to explore and improve multisectoral coordination between Aswesuma and other programs on child nutrition and development, as well as women’s empowerment.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation.

Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050.

Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages.

Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy.

Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders.

In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework.

In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population:
• A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods,
• Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains,
• A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and
• A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Food insecurity in post-crisis Sri Lanka: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess food insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT National Household Survey data for 2024-2025, which collected data on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by the FAO.
• 32.8% of households in Sri Lanka experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in the 12 months prior to the survey, with 29.6% classified as moderately and 3.2% classified as severely food insecure. In contrast, food insecurity was just 12% in the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES), such that food insecurity has almost tripled since the 2022 economic crisis.
• A very high 54.5% of Estate households (households that reside in housing on an estate/plantation) experienced food insecurity (43.2% moderate, and 11.4% severe), compared to 35.3% of urban and 31.8% of rural households. Eastern (39.1%), Uva (38.5%), and Southern (38.1%) provinces recorded the highest food insecurity rates.
• Dry-zone households show slightly higher moderate and severe insecurity (34.6%) than inter-mediate (31.1%) and wet zones (24.6%).
• Households dependent on informal employment are more than twice as likely to report food in-security (41% moderate, 5% severe) compared to formal employment households (18% moderate, 1% severe).
• Fishing households are the most food insecure across all livelihoods with 58% experiencing moderate or severe insecurity, including 10% reporting severe food insecurity. Households de-pendent on construction (41%), agriculture (38%), textiles/artisans (35%), manufacturing (29%), food and beverage preparation (27%) and services (23%) also reported high food insecurity.
• Splitting by wealth quintiles, the poorest 20% of households in Sri Lanka have a food insecurity prevalence of 45% including 10% who are severely food insecure. Food insecurity declines as wealth increases but is still high for the second (34%) and middle quintiles (25%).
• The FIES-based indicator reports much higher food insecurity in 2024 (32.8%) than the WFP’s alternative CARI method of estimating food insecurity (16%).
• FIES-based measures can support more frequent monitoring of food insecurity in Sri Lanka via phone surveys and help assess the impacts of programs such as Aswesuma.

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025.
• Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks.
• The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone.
• Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers.
• Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income.
• Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA).
• Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country.
• Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent.
• Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks.
• Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels..
• Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025
• Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province.
• Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%).
• In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks.
• Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile.
• Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity.
• Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents.
• Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors
• Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices.
• More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Key Findings
• Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water.
• Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity.
• Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households.
• 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households.
• Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones.
• Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households.
• Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Impact of conflict on key agro-industries in Khartoum State, Sudan: Wheat flour milling, oil processing, and packaging

This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state.

The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector.

Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries.

Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains.

Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors.

Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector.

A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector.

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

Multistakeholder platforms in transboundary waters: What do we know, and where should we go?

This policy brief synthesizes recent evidence on multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in shared river basins and presents practical guidance for river basin organizations, development partners, and policymakers. It compares established basin-level MSP approaches across three basins (Nile, Zambezi, and Mekong) and describes how stakeholders in the Incomati and Maputo River Basins—shared across the Republic of South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique—built on these approaches to design their own MSP. This brief translates comparative evidence and field experience into a practical toolkit for advancing MSPs in shared basins.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique - Groundtruthing data collection and stakeholder engagement report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Zambezia in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making.

SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4)Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU).

This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict all activities carried out during the data collection process in the several districts of Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces which are the target regions of the project. The report also includes the methodology approach used since the interaction and involvement of local stakeholders. At the last sections, the report includes the main findings from the data collection process, challenges and constraints, lessons learnt and the next steps.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Kenya Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2025

Rice prices in September 2025 declined nationally, falling by 8 percent year-on-year and 5 percent compared to the previous month. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest. Prices either stabilized or declined across most states and regions in the country. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram rising this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year – e.g. pork rose by 55 percent – due to rising production costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, quality concerns, import restrictions, and disruptions in border trade, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy.

This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation.

The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing.

The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms.

The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.

Experiential learning for groundwater governance in India study data

This data article presents a dataset developed to support a rigorous impact assessment of an experiential learning intervention aimed at enhancing groundwater governance and agricultural water management in rural Indian communities. The intervention combined collective action games, participatory planning tools, and community debriefings to promote behavioral shifts toward sustainable groundwater and surface water management. These tools are designed to support informed decision-making, foster collective action, and strengthen governance of water as a common resource. The impact evaluation follows a randomized control trial design, incorporating baseline and follow-up data from both treatment and control habitations. The dataset encompasses behavioral, social, and institutional variables collected through individual surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The intervention and data collection took place in four districts across three Indian states, targeting communities heavily dependent on groundwater. Baseline data were gathered between November 2021 and February 2022, prior to intervention implementation, with follow-up data collected from January to June 2023. The data was collected by local trained enumerators to test the scalability of the approach. Participants were selected through stratified random sampling from a purposively defined sample frame, reflecting groundwater reliance and socioeconomic diversity. The resulting dataset comprises anonymized, structured files detailing demographic, social, agricultural, and water governance information across all study groups. The dataset’s multi-layered structure and detailed documentation enable a wide range of reuse opportunities, including replication of previous analyses, in-depth exploration of behavioral and institutional dynamics, and the advancement of novel methodological approaches in water governance research. It supports diverse research needs spanning cross-regional comparisons and policy evaluations.

A good global investment for the European Commission: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits E.U. citizens

CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the E.U. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on E.U. farms, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for E.U. consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten E.U. farm livelihoods. This note quantifies the benefits to farmers, exporters and consumers.

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Spatial analysis shows moderate yet significantly more vigorous crops in AICCRA communities compared to control communities

In southern Ghana, communities with multiple stakeholder CSA field demonstrations (CSA hubs) show significantly more vigorous crops based on satellite imagery from 2021 to 2025, compared to control communities.

Integrated pest management

The use of pesticides in agriculture has had mixed consequences. While pesticides have significantly increased agricultural productivity and food security by reducing yield losses to harmful organisms [1], their excessive use has led to severe environmental consequences. Inherently, pesticides are designed to protect plants from pests. However, their effects extend far beyond the targeted organisms. Pesticides occasionally contaminate soil [2], [3], [4], water [5], [6], and air [7], leading to widespread environmental pollution, reducing biodiversity and causing potential health risk to humans [8]. This happens through volatilization [9], spray drift [10], runoff from fields [11], and improper product management [12] such as improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage [12]. The chemicals used in pesticides can persist in the environment, causing long-term harm to ecosystems [13]. They do not stay confined to the areas where they are applied; they can spread through air and water, affecting distant ecosystems and non-target species.

Waste to animal feed

Currently, Food Waste (FW) is a pressing global issue with significant environmental, social, and economic implications. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), approximately one-third of all food produced for human consumption ― almost 1.3 billion tons globally ― is lost or wasted each year . This wastage occurs throughout the food system, from farm to fork. However, FW in high-income countries mainly originates from food consumption whereas in low-income countries it comes from food production and food processing [1]. This reflects differences in consumers' habits and behavior and in the technological underpinnings of local food systems. Regardless of which part of the food system FW originates from, it has serious consequences for food security [2], resource conservation [3], and climate change [4]. FW contributes to greenhouse gas emissions through various processes. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, are emitted when FW is landfilled [5]. The total global amount of FW generates 3.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide emission annually [6]. Landfilling also contributes to the formation of leachate, a toxic liquid that can contaminate groundwater and surface water.

Agro-silvo-pastoralism

Agro-silvo-pastoralism is an agricultural practice combining crop cultivation (agro), forestry (silvo), and animal husbandry (pastoralism) within the same system. It is an integrated approach to land management, applicable to a wide range of ecological conditions [1] that aims to create a harmonious interconnection between its components, thereby maximizing overall system productivity, promoting production diversification and biodiversity, and ensuring sustainability [2]. Agro-silvo-pastoralism systems were already known during the Roman Empire; such systems are mentioned in works like "De Agri Cultura" by Cato (second century B.C.), "Naturalis Historia" by Pliny the Elder (first century B.C.), and "De Re Rustica" by Varro (37 B.C.) [3]. Archeological studies prove that the practice is rooted in the Bronze Age [4], [5]. In recent years, the interest in agro-silvo-pastoralism has been renewed because of its potential to sustain rural farming in marginal areas and to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change [6]. In Brazil, for example, areas under agro-silvo-pastoralism amount to 17 million hectares, with a potential to reach three times that number.

Intercropping

Over the last decades, crop yields in conventional farming and monocropping systems have increased globally, benefiting from advancements in plant breeding and from higher use of inputs, specifically water, fertilizers, and pesticides. However, the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of such high-input/high-output systems is questionable, and this requires revisiting the conventional farming and monocropping systems paradigm. Moreover, conventional agriculture and monocropping significantly impact biodiversity by reducing habitat diversity and increasing environmental degradation. Monocropping promotes genetic uniformity, leading to the decline of traditional crop varieties. Intensive agricultural practices, such as the extensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, result in habitat fragmentation, soil degradation, and loss of soil microbial diversity, which are detrimental to various plants and wild animals.

Minimum tillage

Soil tillage represents a key agricultural management practice for crop production, serving multiple purposes. Primarily, it is used to control weeds and increase the soil organic matter mineralization rates, making nutrients more available to plants. Other potential benefits are improved soil aeration and water filtration. However, extensive use of tillage has proven unsustainable for soil maintenance and climate regulation. Deep plowing and other cultivation practices lead to soil degradation by increasing susceptibility to erosion [1], soil runoff [2], and by reducing microbial diversity and activity [3]. Minimum tillage and no-tillage (also known as zero-tillage) address these problems by reducing soil cultivation to a minimum, or entirely avoiding it, thus promoting less disruptive and potentially more sustainable agricultural management. Specifically, no-tillage eliminates traditional plowing practices with the use of direct seeding. To be effective, direct seeding is preceded by other land preparation practices, including chemical or mechanical weed control (e.g., slashing), removal of the previous crop residues, or cover crops to create a mulch layer. Crop residues are retained entirely, or at a suitable level to ensure complete soil coverage. Seeding is then done directly through the mulch layer or through narrow slits for seed placement. Occasionally, direct seeding can be done just before harvesting the previous crop. This practice, known as relay cropping, is used to reduce weed emergence during the period the land would otherwise lie fallow. Finally, direct seeding can be also done jointly with fertilizer and amendment applications. Minimum tillage is also promoted as a method to reduce air pollution, for instance in India, where previously farmers used to burn rice straw but now apply direct seeding on cut crop residues which are spread as mulch.

Farming with alternative pollinators

The relationship between plants and pollinators is widely recognized as one of the most significant forms of ecological interactions [1]. Without pollinators, numerous plant species could not reproduce. Additionally, many animals rely on plants for essential resources such as pollen and nectar. This relationship is remarkably frequent in nature, with an estimated 87% of flowering plants pollinating through animal interaction [2]. Consequently, pollinators are also essential for humanity, especially for their contribution to food security since they are necessary to produce various crop commodities [3]. The production of medicines, biofuels, and construction materials relies, to some extent, on the pollination carried out by animals. Finally, the livelihood of many people is based on beekeeping and honey gathering, which are ancient activities yet still important in many rural communities [3]. Pollination is a recognized ecosystem service, and its economic value has been assessed numerous times [4], [5], [6]. However, we witness a rapid biodiversity decline in terms of wild pollinators, which is caused by human activities [7]. Among the factors leading to this decline, the intensive and improper use of agrochemicals is arguably the most severe [8]. For instance, the practice of seed coating with systemic pesticides (such as Imidacloprid) affects the nectar and pollen, causing a potential threat to pollinators [9], [10]. Habitat fragmentation, loss, and degradation are also important drivers of the decline of wild pollinators. These can be caused by urbanization, removal of “waste places” like hedgerows and field margins, and (over)grazing and early cutting of hay meadows [8]. Climate change is an additional risk, interrupting the timely synchronization of plant-pollinator interactions

Micro-irrigation

Irrigation is an essential practice in many agricultural production systems. It is also one of the oldest interventions to nature implemented by humankind, since its origins trace back to almost 6000 BC [1]. Currently, agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater withdrawals globally, with irrigation being the primary driver. As shown in Figure 1, irrigation is closely linked to an increase in crop yields. On average at the global level, yields achieved under irrigation are almost double relative to rainfed yields, with potential for even greater yield increase in arid areas. Since water is a scarce resource, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, satisfying the increased demand for irrigation water in agriculture has become a pressing global challenge, exacerbated by climate and demographic change, which will require an increased supply of food for a growing human population [2]. The high demand for irrigation water to support food production is linked to several types of nature losses, the most important of which is the risk of water resources depletion [3] and the subsequent negative impacts on water-related biodiversity and ecosystem services. Figure 2 illustrates the consumption rate of renewable water resources, highlighting how arid and semi-arid regions frequently surpass the natural replenishment rate of their water resources. Furthermore, irrigation can cause soil degradation by inducing changes in soil structure and increasing the risk of erosion [4]. Flood irrigation, in particular, can contribute to soil erosion by physically moving the soil parts. In arid and semi-arid regions, high evaporation rates of irrigation water from the soil surface can cause problems of salinization over time. In regions where irrigated agriculture is prevalent, these environmental risks significantly increase with water overconsumption or inefficient water use.

Organic ferilizers

Fertilization is a crucial aspect of soil management aimed at regulating the nutrient cycle and availability and supporting plant growth and increasing productivity. It involves the application of nutrients, either to the soil [1] or to plant foliage [2] to replenish optimal content in the soil and, ultimately, in the plants. Fertilization has always been an integral part of agricultural production, and its origins can be traced back to around 8000 BCE [3]. Over time the use of fertilizers has evolved, and application rates have significantly increased thanks to industrial processes [4] that enabled the production of low-priced and accessible synthetic fertilizers. Figure 1 shows the extent of the worldwide use of nitrogen-based fertilizers, the most typical nutrient applied in agriculture as it is often a yield-limiting nutrient.

Mechanical soil and water conservation

In semi-arid areas, where water scarcity and poor soil condition pose significant threats to agricultural production and to the livelihood of individual smallholders and communities, water and soil management are critical for food/water security. Limited renewable freshwater and erratic rainfall patterns in those areas restrict the reliance on irrigation, making water conservation strategies more pressing and necessary [1]. Moreover, implementing advanced irrigation systems may be challenging due to limited resources and a lack of technical expertise [2]. For smallholder farmers, the adoption of irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, is limited by further constraints such as high costs, limited access to finance, lack of technical support, and may not be suitable for all local conditions and cropping systems [3]. Under these constraints, promoting water and soil conservation strategies practices as part of a broader water management package to increase agricultural productivity at the farm level becomes crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural production.

Biocontrol

Worldwide, the estimated pesticide use in agriculture is 2.7 million tons (Mt) of active ingredients (FAOSTAT). Despite their accessibility and efficacy, chemical pesticides raise numerous environmental concerns. Chemical pesticides can pollute ecosystems by contaminating soil, air, and freshwater through various pathways, including volatilization [1], spray drift [2], runoff from fields [3], and improper product management [4], like improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage. This contamination can have detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems [5], harm animals [6], and pose risks to human health through contaminated drinking water sources [7]. The second major concern is the undesired impacts on biodiversity: The use of chemical pesticides is frequently linked to a decrease in populations of non-target species [8], [9], [10], and can also lead to the development of resistance by target species [11], [12], further unbalancing the equilibrium of species populations. Moreover, resistance to pesticides induces the use of alternative and often more potent chemical products, further perpetuating the cycle of environmental harm.

Crop rotation

Crop rotation is a critical agricultural practice employed to mitigate the adverse effects associated with monoculture systems. Monoculture, which refers to the cultivation of a single crop over a whole farm or area [1], has seen a constant spread worldwide since its early instances, such as the Caribbean sugarcane plantation in the 18th Century [2]. Among the many reasons concurring in the diffusion of monoculture, increased profitability through economies of scale is probably the main driver. Concentration on one crop allows for more efficient planting and harvesting, lower investment in diverse and costly equipment, reduced need for a workforce with specialized knowledge, and a comprehensive understanding of specific value chains and available markets

Green manure

Soil management is a critical aspect of crop production for its impact on environmental and economic sustainability. Ordinarily, in annual cropping systems, land lays fallow in the period that follows the harvest of one crop and precedes the sowing of the next. This period of non-cultivation helps reconstitute the soil fertility and water reserves [1], [2]. However, improperly maintaining the land fallow is shown to deplete soil quality and harm the environment. Without vegetation cover, the soil is more exposed to erosion [3], surface runoff [4], and degradation of its organic content [4]. Erosion and surface runoff not only reduce soil fertility, leading to an inefficient use of resources [3], but also pose a potential threat of freshwater contamination with nitrates and other agricultural by-products [5]. The degradation of soil organic matter has severe impacts when not reconstituted and preserved. The soil's capacity to hold water [3] and nutrients decreases, making control of those critical inputs complex for farmers. Climate regulation is also affected: soil organic matter stores carbon within the soil ecosystem, but its degradation releases it into the atmosphere, exacerbating greenhouse gas levels [6]

Multipurpose trees

Industrialized food systems and commercial forestry, characterized by monoculture practices, have contributed to significant land degradation [1], biodiversity loss [2], and increase in greenhouse gas emissions [3]. As opposed to the detrimental trends caused by monoculture, agroforestry, and growing multipurpose trees in particular, stands out as a production system that provides multiple benefits [4]. Multipurpose trees are frequently distinctive components of agroforestry systems, although they are rare in commercial forestry and conventional agriculture. The conservation ― or cultivation ― of multipurpose trees is often economically motivated in a multiple-output land-use system, but it can also be driven by ecological and environmental reasons. They are deliberately kept and managed for more than one preferred use, product, or service. They provide food, fodder, fuel, and medicine, while also contributing to soil fertility, water conservation, and biodiversity enhancement1

Sustainable manure management

Manure is any excrement and urine of farmed animals and is considered a resource or waste, depending on where and how much is produced, and how it is used. It is an essential source of nutrients for plants, and it has been used for fertilizing soil and enhancing crop production since the advent of agriculture [1]. It reduces the reliance on chemical fertilizers in situations where they can be hard to find (or to afford) and in contexts like organic agriculture, where chemical fertilizers are avoided for ethical or policy reasons. Manure production worldwide is increasing [2] due to the growing demand for meat and animal-based products [3]. This trend raises concerns about the potential threat to ecosystems posed by manure, since several factors can contribute to environmental pollution hazards [4]. Manure contains high levels of nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. When manure is applied to soil in excessive amounts, or during periods of heavy rainfall, these nutrients can enter nearby water bodies through the processes of leaching and runoff [5]. High levels of nitrates in water bodies can lead to excessive and rapid growth of algae, causing oxygen depletion and eutrophication [6]. This process can lead to the death of fish and other aquatic organisms that depend on oxygen to survive, ultimately resulting in habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity [7]. In fact, untreated manure spread onto soils is generally considered the principal cause of eutrophication [8], [9] and of nitrate freshwater pollution from agricultural sources [10]

Integrated nutrient management

Soil fertilization is a fundamental practice for increasing crop yields and ensuring sustainable agricultural production. As shown in Figure 1, the use of fertilizers has been growing over the years, reflecting the importance of fertilization in all agricultural systems. However, several environmental issues and potential health risks arise from incorrect approaches to fertilization in both high-income and low-income countries.

Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania

This study investigates the impact of temporary subsidies for nutrient-dense foods on the diets of low-income households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Vouchers for eggs, milk, and unflavored yogurt were provided to randomly selected households over a three-month period. The subsidies significantly increased the consumption of the targeted healthy foods while discounts were offered. These effects persisted up to 9 months after the end of the subsidy period and were accompanied by a shift in preferences for the targeted foods. Consumption of unhealthy complements, specifically sugar added to yogurt and milk, increased during the subsidy period. Finally, while poorer households initially benefited most, sustained impacts were greater among wealthier households. In sum, the findings demonstrate that subsidies for healthy foods can lead to sustained improvements in diets, while suggesting a role for accompanying interventions such as nutrition education to maximize net health benefits, and pointing to the need for ongoing support to the most vulnerable.

Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Nearly one quarter of all Sri Lankans are multidimensionally poor, and nearly one half are multidimensionally vulnerable.
The multidimensionally poor are deprived in 45% of the weighted poverty indicators, while the multidimensionally vulnerable are deprived in 37% of the weighted vulnerability indicators.
Estate areas have the highest rates of multidimensional poverty (63%) and vulnerability (83%), but most of the multidimensionally poor (77%) and vulnerable (79%) live in rural areas because nearly 8 out of 10 Sri Lankans live there.
Central province has the highest multidimensional poverty rate (38%), while Northern (75%), Eastern (65%), and Uva (60%) provinces have the highest multidimensional vulnerability rates.
Western province has one of the lowest multidimensional poverty rates (17%) and the lowest multidimensional vulnerability rates (35%).
The main sources of multidimensional poverty are health deprivations and standard of living (assets and basic services) deprivations.
The main sources of multidimensional vulnerability are shocks, unproductive debt, poor health, and inadequate schooling.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka:
The government of Sri Lanka should consider using multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures to re-assess district-level poverty for the first-stage allocation of Aswesuma resources.
Refinements and/or extensions of these multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures could prove useful for assessing potential policy levers for reducing current poverty and the vulnerability of households to future poverty.

Rebuilding trust in local leadership in conflict-affected settings: The impact of community-based cash transfers

Trust in local leadership is critical for effective delivery of public goods and services -especially in conflict-affected and post-conflict settings, where local institutions and markets remain weak, and peacebuilding and recovery efforts are crucial. Thus, identifying avenues and instruments for rebuilding trust in local leadership remains important. Building on a recent and large-scale armed conflict in Ethiopia, we study the impact of a randomized community-based cash transfer on trust in local leadership. The randomized cash transfer was introduced after the war in Ethiopia and its implementation involved local community leaders, some of whom may have participated in the conflict. We find that exposure to armed conflict is associated with a significant
deterioration in trust in local leaders, while the community-based cash transfer recovers some of the deteriorated trust. We provide suggestive evidence that the impacts of cash transfer are driven not only by those who received the cash transfer but also by non-beneficiary households in communities where the cash transfer is implemented. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effect is largely driven by poor households and households which do not benefit from government safety net programs. These results have important implications for policy design in rebuilding trust in local leadership in post-conflict and fragile settings.

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. These challenges are further exacerbated for women and youth because of persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within the agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study aims to assess the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture-based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

A 2020-21 Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan with a Related Water Resources Module

This paper presents the methodological framework and data sources for developing a national-level Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and its integrated hydrological component for Pakistan. The foundation of this data paper builds on the methodology of national SAMs developed by IFPRI, while disaggregating several accounts relevant to water and food policies. The aim is to provide a systematic guide to the methodology and data requirements necessary for constructing a national SAM for Pakistan and to present key results from this exercise. The SAM is updated from the 2013–14 base, following the structure of the Nexus SAMs developed by IFPRI under the CGIAR’s Policy Innovation Science Program, with several modifications in the estimation of accounts to better capture Pakistan’s water–food–economy interlinkages. On the hydrology side, the data has been comprehensively updated using multiple national and provincial sources, including the recent Punjab Tube-Well Census, surface water flow and runoff data, canal-level inflows and evaporation, zonal-level rainfall and water storage records, and spatial datasets on area and crop production across provinces. Together, these datasets strengthen the integration of hydrological and economic systems, providing a robust foundation for evidence-based water and agricultural policy analysis in Pakistan.

Policy implementation is operational

This paper argues that policy implementation must be understood as a fundamentally operational process, not merely the execution of policy intent. It proposes a framework centered on four core dimensions of implementation: activation cost, option value, kinetics, and negotiation. Drawing on the case of the World Food Programme’s 2008 Cash and Voucher Policy, the paper shows that implementing a policy requires building physical and institutional systems, creating delivery capacity, managing uncertainty, and preserving strategic flexibility. The case is not about cash transfers as such, but about what it took—organizationally, technically, and politically—for the World Food Programme to move from a policy decision to sustained, system wide operational capability and delivery. The paper concludes that successful policy implementation depends on treating implementation itself as the central frontier of policy action—requiring investment, learning, negotiation, and time. Several implications emerge for researchers, practitioners, and investors seeking to close the gap between policy on paper and policy in action.

Advanced spatial analytics for policy support: Use cases from One CGIAR

The CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (“Policy Program”) is committed to driving transformation across Food, Land, and Water (FLW) systems. Identifying viable policies and investment options through Foresight and Prioritization exercises (Area of Work 1) is key to reaching this goal. However, prioritizing interventions that are relevant to local needs and conditions, while addressing global drivers and megatrends that affect FLW systems across different scales remains a challenge. This report seeks to address this challenge. It demonstrates how spatial analytics, a fast-evolving field that sits at the intersection of economics, public policy, geography, and data science, can provide actionable policy insights. It also aims to equip policymakers and partners with advanced and accessible spatial analytical tools to design and implement tailored policies, investments and programs. The report starts by providing a unified framework that brings together diverse spatial analytics approaches to support policy. It reviews the evolution of spatial analytics, spanning geographic information systems (GIS), spatial economics, and economic models with spatially explicit inputs and outputs. It also introduces a taxonomy of building blocks to illustrate how different spatial tools and methods can address various policy questions. This report draws on 11 use cases from across CGIAR centers in which spatial analytics have been applied to inform policies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It demonstrates how spatial analytics can identify priority intervention areas and appropriate actions at the local level while accounting for global drivers. Key challenges in scaling spatial analytics for policy application are also identified, including data gaps, methodological complexities, and computational constraints. The report concludes by outlining future directions to fully leverage spatial analytics for policy support. This report aims to advance the integration of spatial analytics across disciplines and scales, enabling the translation of local spatial patterns into regional and global policy frameworks. The curated use cases show that spatial analytics is no longer a niche technical exercise, but an operational tool that facilitates FLW systems transformation towards desirable futures. By systematically linking spatial heterogeneity to multi-scale policy needs, spatial analytics can generate actionable and scalable insights for policy development and implementation

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Climate-smart agriculture for sustainable agriculture in Bhutan: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture technologies in Nepal: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. CSUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottom-up applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture in Bangladesh: Adoption, policy barriers and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Healthy diets and the role of micro, small, and medium enterprises: Examining Ethiopia’s food environment

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the food environment in many low- and middle-income countries. But there is little systematic knowledge about the opportunities they have and constraints they face in trying to grow their businesses. To contribute to building this knowledge base, we draw upon linked household–enterprise surveys collected in two districts in Ethiopia in 2023. To learn about the constraints faced by these enterprises, we examine differences in organizational characteristics and business practices by outlet type, location, and manager gender and education among MSMEs that sell food. The results suggest that while there are clear availability constraints for specific types of foods, there are some strategies that could help MSMEs that retail healthy foods increase sales. If policymakers or others are interested in supporting sales through the food environment, interventions such as business training, service access, and capacity building on nutrition would best fit their needs.

Cash transfers and inflation: An overview of the evidence

Cash transfer programs are a leading form of social assistance, reaching up to 21 percent of the population in at least 68 low- and middle-income countries (World Bank 2025). Between 1980 and 2023, a total of 1.4 million papers were produced on the matter (Gentilini 2024) and more have been published since. While the design and impact of these and related programs have been closely studied (Banerjee et al. 2024), much less is known about whether or not cash transfer programs cause increases in the market price of good and services—that is, inflation. By reducing the purchasing power of money, program-driven inflation can diminish the positive impacts of cash transfers for recipients and create a negative spillover for nonrecipients, thus undermining program aims of improving social welfare. Recent literature on cash transfers and inflation is limited and often described as dichotomous: on one side, Egger et al. (2022) and other studies find little to no effect, while, on the other side, Filmer et al. (2023) find sizable and alarming inflationary effects on selected commodities. However, a closer look at these and other papers reveals that their results are less contradictory than they first appear. Rather, the whole body of the current literature is congruous with the hypothesis that cash transfers have minimal average effects on prices for most market goods; but these transfers can cause inflation where they significantly increase market demand for goods for which supply is relatively inelastic. This review proceeds as follows. We first present a simple conceptual model that illustrates the theoretical basis for this hypothesis, followed by an overview of the studies included in the review and their key differences. The next section presents a synthesis of the main findings in the existing empirical evidence. We then look at related research just outside the purview of this review. The conclusion discusses key takeaways.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.