Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared
to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture's role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali

This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.

Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP

This study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia's IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2025

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea/ Price trends: Quarterly comparisons (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023 and Q4 2022) Sweet potato prices in Q4 of 2024 were 20.4 percent higher in all markets compared to Q4 of 2023 (averaging 1.64 PGK/kg in Q4 of 2023, and 1.79 PGK/kg in 2024). However, sweet potato prices in Kokopo were 13 percent lower in 2024 (1.35 PGK/kg) compared to 2023 Q4 price (1.55/PGK/kg) Rice prices have increased slowly (but remained stable) since 2022. Compared to Q4 2023, rice prices in 2024 were 14 percent higher in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby. Vegetable prices, on average, in Q4 of 2024 were 23.6 lower in Goroka compared to Q4 of 2023. Compared to Q4 2022, the price of vegetables, on average, in 2024 were 22.1 percent lower in highland markets. Fruits saw mixed price movements between 2023 and 2024: lemon prices in Q4 2024 were 28.4 percent lower, on average, across all markets.

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Synthesis report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping of Southeast Asian countries formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam joined this association in 1984. ASEAN expanded to 10 countries between 1995 and 1999 by extending memberships to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. These 10 Southeast Asian countries entered into the trade agreement to ensure the free flow of goods, including agricultural products. Agreements related to services and investment were also signed to enhance economic cooperation and to develop an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003 helped liberalize the intra-ASEAN agricultural trade, which grew steadily during the period under review. Further, the dynamics of intra ASEAN trade show that after the food price crisis of 2007/2008, intra-ASEAN agricultural trade increased sharply, which reflects ASEAN’s efforts to create a food security action plan aimed at improving sustainable food trade among ASEAN members.

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.

The case for food system knowledge support system (FS-KSS)

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035) is a key framework aimed at transforming Africa’s agrifood systems to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic development across the continent. Building on the lessons from the Malabo Declaration, the Plan emphasizes the need for sustainable food production, inclusivity, and resilience in the face of climate change and other challenges. However, achieving these ambitious goals requires a robust and integrated support system that can provide accurate, real time data, facilitate evidence-based decision-making, and promote accountability among stakeholders. Without a well-functioning knowledge system, the efforts to transform agrifood systems may be hindered by data gaps, limited analytical capacity, and a lack of coordination among various actors. The effectiveness of food systems in Africa is often hindered by data gaps, inconsistencies, and limited capacity for data analysis. These issues compromise the ability of governments and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, implement sound policies, and monitor progress toward national and continental goals such as food security and climate resilience. This is where the Food System Knowledge Support System (FS-KSS) becomes crucial, as it provides the necessary tools to ensure effective implementation of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan.

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.

Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.

IFPRI's approach to research

The International Food Policy Research Institute provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end malnutrition in low-and middle-income countries and has played a vital role in informing policies, programs, and investments since its founding in 1975. This document provides a brief introduction to IFPRI and sets out how we approach our research, along with the scope of our current work.

Use of fertilizers in agriculture sector of Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s heavily relies on imported mineral fertilizers. Fertilizers, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are crucial for enhancing crop yields, increasing income and supporting farmers’ livelihoods. However, limited access to this input, along with rising global fertilizer prices, has restricted farmers’ ability to fully benefit from them. Particularly due to the result of this, agricultural productivity has been constrained, affecting food security and farmer incomes.

Key challenges
• Fertilizer application rates, particularly for both mineral and organic types, remain below the recommended norms set by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Farmers across the country, especially smallholders, struggle to apply adequate amounts of fertilizers due to high costs and limited access.
• Access to high-quality mineral fertilizers is further hindered by the country’s dependency on imports, which can exacerbate local price volatility.
• Fertilizer use varies across different regions of Tajikistan. In Khatlon and Sughd regions fertilizer use is higher, particularly for cotton and vegetable farming. However, in other regions fertilizer use remains comparatively low, limiting agricultural productivity.
• While fertilizers are essential for improving crop yields, excessive or inefficient use can lead to environmental risks, including soil salinity and degradation. Careful management of fertilizer use is needed to prevent harm to biodiversity and soil ecosystems, particularly in regions with intensive farming, such as those producing cotton.

Recommended actions
• Promote training on organic fertilizer benefits and sustainable practices like composting. Support better manure management to increase organic fertilizer application.
• Abolishing or reducing value added tax and import tariffs for fertilizers could make them more cost-effective and attainable for farmers.
• Introduce targeted subsidies for mineral fertilizers to make fertilizers more affordable and accessible.
• Promote efficient fertilizer use and broader sustainable practices like soil conservation and integrated pest management to ensure long-term productivity.

Agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan: Private sector role

Agricultural advisory services (AAS) may play a crucial role in supporting Tajikistan’s food security and rural development by helping farmers to increase productivity, adopt new technologies, and access to the markets. Despite their significance, AAS remain underdeveloped with limited coverage and accessibility. Strengthening AAS through government support, private sector engagement, and in partnership with NGOs can address the challenges and contribute to sustainable growth of the sector.

Key challenges and developments
• Limited coverage and accessibility: In 2021, around 5 percent of Tajikistan’s farms and 14 percent of arable land benefited from professional AAS, while over 90 percent of farmers need these services.
• Resource constraints: Financial needs and limited number of AAS providers are the main constraints to scaling-up the services to meet nationwide farmers' needs.
• Positive impacts of current initiatives: Despite limited resources, Sarob and Neksigol Mushovir private and non-profit cooperatives through providing AAS to the farmers contributes on yield increases across the country, at the same time reduce an irrigation water use.
• Digital innovation: Neksigol Mushovir’s AgroSpace platform, with mobile applications, e-library resources, and online consultations, has significantly improved access to agricultural knowledge.
• Climate-smart agriculture: Sarob’s initiatives in climate-smart practices, such as zero tillage and water-saving technologies, have reduced inputs use and an increased crops yield.

Recommended actions
• Expand institutional support: Public support to scaling up of the AAS is crucial.
• Enhance public-private partnerships: Encourage collaboration between public institutions, private sector, and NGOs to pool resources and knowledge is vital to expanding AAS to the farmers.
• Enhance digital solutions for AAS: Invest in digital platforms to provide accessible, low-cost advisory services, real-time market information, and climate adaptation tools to the farmers.
• Focus on climate resilience: Scale up climate-smart agricultural practices and provide training in water management, pest control, and sustainable farming techniques to enhance productivity under changing climate conditions.

Agriculture sector reform and sectoral programs in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s agricultural sector, despite its challenging environment and limited natural resources, remains a vital component of the national economy, providing employment and income for a significant portion of the rural population. However, the sector faces critical challenges including inefficient land use, outdated farming practices, inadequate infrastructure, and the lingering influence of Soviet-era agricultural systems. Since the early 1990s, Tajikistan has embarked on a series of agricultural reforms aimed at improving productivity and sustainability. Key reforms include land redistribution, water sector restructuring, and the adoption of policies to modernize the agricultural sector. The “Agriculture Reform Program” (ARP) for 2012-2020 was a major initiative targeting structural changes in land and water management, as well as the reorientation of the Ministry of Agriculture from a central planning body to a facilitator and regulator.

Designing and implementing experiments within local bureaucratic systems: A cautionary tale from an educator incentive program

Collaborating with governments to co-develop pilot programs and integrate them into local administrative systems is increasingly regarded as a key strategy for achieving scalability and sustainability. This study examines a pilot initiative designed in partnership with the Elementary and Secondary Education (E&SE) Department in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, offering important lessons for such collaborations. While the intent to operate within existing bureaucratic frameworks was commendable, it also limited the design and execution of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). This paper explores institutional factors that hindered the RCT's implementation, resulting in missed opportunities to evaluate critical design elements. The pilot centered on promotion-based incentives for educators and had null effects on a variety of educator and student outcomes. However, using unique video-based evidence, it objectively identifies the implementation challenges and describes the insights gained for more effective co-design and integration of future pilot programs within governmental systems.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Trends and inequities in adequacy of micronutrient intakes in rural Bangladesh

Background
Micronutrient deficiencies pose a significant public health challenge, yet limited evidence exists on micronutrient intakes over time in Bangladesh.
Objective
We assessed trends and adequacies in micronutrient intakes and examined the changes in inequities by age group, sex, and expenditure quintile.
Methods
We used panel data from the 2011 and 2018 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (n =21,475 and 21,589 household members aged ≥2y, respectively). Food consumption data were collected using a household dietary recall. Changes in micronutrient intakes were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test. Inequities in outcomes were examined using the Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index.
Results
Micronutrient intakes remained suboptimal across 2011 and 2018, with low adequacy (<0.50) for all nutrients except niacin. While vitamin A intake increased across various demographics, trends for other micronutrient intakes differed by age. Intakes improved for 10 micronutrients among children aged 2-<5y, but increased for only half of examined micronutrients among children aged 5-9y. For adolescents and adults, most micronutrient intakes slightly declined, with greater inadequacies observed among females versus males. Pregnant women experienced sharper declines in adequacy of micronutrient intakes than lactating women. The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was low (around one-third) for all age groups with lower MPA among poorer compared to richer households across age, sex and survey years. Inequity gaps in MPA mostly declined, except for females ≥50y and pregnant women. Conclusions Micronutrient intakes and adequacies remain suboptimal and have decreased marginally over time for many nutrients and MPA across most age groups. Inequities in micronutrient intakes persist by age, sex, and income levels, disproportionately affecting the poor, adults, and women. Our study calls for evidence-based policies and programs that incorporate a range of proven approaches and tailored solutions to effectively tackle persisting inequities and ensure access to healthy diets for all.

Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030

Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l'Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l'Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l'Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program's economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Impact of farm size on the function of landscape-level payments for ecosystem services: An agent-based model study

Reducing pesticide use and restoring biodiversity are among the most pressing environmental challenges. Enhancing natural pest control ecosystem services through the integration of non-crop habitats (NCH) offers promising potential, creating a positive feedback loop by harnessing insect biodiversity to reduce pesticide reliance. Policy support is needed at the landscape level to encourage adoption of this currently underutilized approach, which depends on spatial coordination and collective behavioral change. Farm size, which critically influences farmers' agrochemical inputs, agroecological practices, and interactions with neighboring farms, varies across agricultural landscapes. It is unclear what role farm size plays in landscape-scale agri-environmental incentive programs, which have recently seen growing attention in scientific research and policy implementation. We employ framed field games and agent-based modeling as complementary research tools, exploring how farm size impacts the function of landscape-scale NCH subsidies aimed at encouraging coordinated provision and sharing of natural pest control services to reduce pesticide use. Our model simulation shows that, in landscapes of larger average farm size or lower farm size heterogeneity, NCH subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing pesticide use and increasing NCH efficiency in providing joint production benefits. Our results imply that landscape-scale payments for natural pest control ecosystem services face fewer obstacles as incentive-based mechanisms in landscapes of larger, more homogeneous farms, supporting the implementation of landscape-scale initiatives in such areas to effectively enhance ecosystem services. Our findings contribute to the growing discussion around landscape-level financial incentive programs that depend on spatial coordination, highlighting the importance of farmers' land holding size.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The food sector constitutes the largest global source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable populations. This article provides an extensive review of the available evidence of the employment effects of innovations and policy interventions in agrifood systems and value chains in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review was guided by a two-part hypothesis: (1) food systems currently underperform in terms of their potential for generating decent jobs and income opportunities, and (2) this gap is only growing as expanding food markets and existing agrifood supply chain business models skew gains to the disadvantage of smallholders, agrifood small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and food sector workers.

Leveraging the role of MSMEs for healthier diets and nutrition: Insights from fruit and vegetable value chain studies across five countries

In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024).

Capacity assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Bangladesh: Exploring the capabilities of the SHiFT strategic partners

Strengthening the multidisciplinary capabilities necessary to accelerate food systems transformation has garnered increased interest over the past decade. A capabilities assessment was done with the Strategic Partners of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation in Bangladesh to understand their abilities to facilitate transformative changes towards sustainable healthy diets. Both Strategic Partners, the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) and the Bangladesh National Nutrition Council (BNNC), have long histories and well-established structures for collaboration and coordination with diverse stakeholders to realize the nutrition-focused (BNNC) and the food-related (FPMU) ambitions of the Government of Bangladesh. They are engaged in food and/or nutrition policy development, governance of the sectors, and monitoring progress at both national and sub-national levels. Using a capability assessment tool tailored to capturing food systems transformation capabilities at organizational level, the capabilities to deliver results and adapt and self-renew were the highest scored for FPMU. BNNC scored more on the capabilities to achieve coherence and to relate to support food systems transformation higher.

However, food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets emerged as relatively new concepts in both organizations. It was acknowledged that whereas the current mandates of BNNC and FPMU may address issues relevant for sustainable healthy diets, to date this still lacks adequate translation into the current policy development and planning operations and has no intentional prioritization. Both teams underscored the urgency to invest in human resources and institutional capacity strengthening as well as earmarking finances to pursue food systems transformation agendas. Becoming more articulated and explicit about what comprises food systems change, what are sustainable healthy diets and what could be monitored is crucial to support the Strategic Partners to have tangible actions to track. Moving from food system narratives to specific actions will facilitate understanding of what is, or needs to be, monitored.

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Stakeholder feedback on a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

The intervention implemented evaluated through the Improving Hygiene Practices in Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya study (Ambler, et al., 2024) aimed to address poor hygiene practices in slaughterhouses, which contribute to foodborne illnesses and unsafe meat. Conducted in 140 slaughterhouses across 6 counties in Western Kenya, the intervention focused on training workers, provision of basic hygiene equipment, and the use of monetary incentives to improve compliance with recommended hygiene practices. After the intervention period, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with stakeholders including six County Directors of Veterinary Services (CDVSs), nine sub-county veterinary Officers (SCVOs), one Public Health Officer (PHO), and ten meat inspectors (MIs).

This report summarizes findings from the KIIs regarding perspectives on the intervention, sustainability, challenges with implementation, and provides a basis for recommendations on refining and scaling up or this approach.

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Formative study on slaughterhouse hygiene in Western Kenya: Summary Report

Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya face critical challenges, including inadequate hygiene practices, poor infrastructure, insufficient water supply, and weak enforcement of regulatory standards. These deficiencies contribute to meat contamination and the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, brucellosis, and anthrax, as well as foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella sp. and pathogenic E.coli. Globally, foodborne illnesses result in millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths annually, particularly among children under five. The public health and economic consequences of these risks in low and middle-income countries are significant (Havelaar et al., 2015; Jaffee et al., 2018). A qualitative study, based on interviews of key informants in the slaughter industry in Western Kenya and associated regulatory authorities, was undertaken in 2022 to document the state of slaughterhouse infrastructure and practices, explore barriers to compliance with regulatory standards, and identify practical solutions for improving conditions and enabling safer meat handling practices. This report summarizes the findings of that study and presents recommendations for interventions to improve slaughter hygiene practices.

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Enhancing women’s economic empowerment in rural Nigeria through advocacy trainings

This policy brief shares quantitative results from a project examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s economic outcomes. We share insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun) involving over 5,800 women participants from 450 communities. We causally test whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s access to and investments in livelihood opportunities. While the trainings were designed to train women in the skills needed for engaging in the local policy process in rural communities in Nigeria and to train their husbands on the benefits of women’s participation in community affairs as well as in how to practically support their wives’ participation, we posit that increased efficacy combined with advocacy skills and husbands’ support could additionally have profound economic spillovers. Indeed, we show causal improvements in these outcomes when women are trained and present some emerging policy lessons.

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics.

Impact of a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

Adherence to strict hygiene standards in slaughterhouses is critical for ensuring food safety and protecting workers from zoonotic disease. The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a study to evaluate the impact of low-cost interventions on hygiene practices in slaughterhouses in western Kenya.

Integrating surface water games into community water management toolkits: A reflection from practitioners in Odisha, India

Water is a vital resource for agricultural production, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting livelihoods of communities. However, population growth and climate change coupled with unsustainable water use and management are increasingly pushing the limits of water resources. In many parts of India, water scarcity is already posing a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods due to prolonged droughts and climate variability. Water scarcity is more pronounced in semi-arid and arid dryland regions of India, where the majority of these regions are characterized as high to extreme water stress areas. Effective management and governance of water resources is crucial to sustain productivity of dryland agricultural systems and livelihoods in these regions.

Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India

We explore the impacts of exposing women to female role models and providing skills training on outcomes related to women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets under India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—the largest public works program in the world, which solicits citizen input on which assets to build and where. While the role model treatment exposes women to a video with stories of female role models from neighboring districts who successfully demanded assets, the skills training shows women how to identify individual and group needs for assets, frame their demands, and articulate them to public functionaries. In a randomized controlled trial spanning 94 villages and involving approximately 2,600 women, we find that exposure to role models alone has limited impacts, but when combined with skills training, there are strong positive impacts on women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets. This reveals that even a light-touch training can significantly benefit women’s voice and agency in village decision-making.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

Despite significant improvements in poverty and standard of living over the last two decades, India continues to face challenges, including slow improvements in health and nutrition indicators and in aspects of women’s empowerment and in generating opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, climate-related events are increasing in frequency with associated risks. Women and other marginalized populations are often at greater risk from these events due to their relatively lower access to resources, lower mobility and greater dependence on common property resources. Social protection can be an effective instrument to promote resilience. One such large social protection program with significant potential is India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, or the MGNREGA, one of the largest public works programs in the world.

This report provides insights from four case studies linked to the MGNREGA and implemented under the Indo-German Enhancing Rural Resilience through Appropriate Development Actions, or ERADA project. ERADA was implemented in 8 blocks of 4 large Indian states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The ERADA project had three broad objectives - of enhancing natural capital, green recovery through green enterprises, and convergence of resources and networks - and identified the MGNREGA as a critical social safety net on which to base its activities. While much has been written on the impact of the MGNREGA on “first-order” outcomes such as wages, employment, rural-urban distress migration and other household welfare outcomes, we know considerably less about the use of the assets created under the program, and even less about the potential of these assets to support and sustain value chain activities.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Assessing the gender dimensions in the true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways:
Gender-based environmental and social external costs create substantial economic inefficiencies in the agricultural sector.
The gender wage gap contributes 12.8% to total external costs.
Women's limited access to resources leads to reduced productivity, with female farmers investing 36% less in inputs than their male counterparts.
Workplace harassment, which disproportionately affects women, accounts for 10.8% of total external costs.
Unequal land management practices (women managing smaller plots) and having restricted access to improved agricultural inputs create additional inefficiencies in resource allocation and production outcomes.

Business and public health impacts of a food safety rating program among pork vendors in Vietnam

Pork is the most widely consumed meat in Vietnam (OECD, 2023), where traditional food markets typically lacking refrigeration account for 84% of retail trade (USDA, 2024). Previous research by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and its partners found that over 60% of meat samples collected from such markets were contaminated with Salmonella (Ngo et al., 2023). This situation is typical of food markets in low and middle-income countries, where foodborne illness is estimated to claim 420,000 lives (Havelaar, et al., 2015) and cause a productivity loss of US$95 billion annually (Jaffee, Henson, Unnevehr, Grace, & Cassou, 2019). Adherence to basic food and hand hygiene practices among meat vendors has the potential to reduce contamination cost-effectively, but would require either market incentives or regulatory enforcement, both of which are often absent in traditional markets. Punitive approaches to enforcement of food safety standards can backfire – for example, vendors may evade regulators by moving to informal markets that lack access to even basic water infrastructure. Further, shutting down non-compliant vendors could reduce access to nutritious foods among low-income consumers.

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

Integrating consumer traits is key to increasing uptake of improved crop varieties: Evidence and policy insights from seed sample packs and cooking events in Uganda

 Semi-subsistence farmers in developing countries often play dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops. Consequently, decisions regarding crop selection are influenced by a com bination of household consumption needs and market-oriented considerations.
 In this policy note, we summarize findings from a field experiment suggesting that integrating con sumption-oriented traits such as taste, color, and ease of cooking alongside production advantages is crucial for driving demand for improved crop varieties.
 The field experiment consists of two interventions designed to enhance the adoption of improved maize seed varieties among smallholder farmers in eastern Uganda. The first intervention involves providing farmers with free seed sample packs to plant and directly experience the production related benefits, such as higher yield potential and drought resistance. The second intervention consists of organizing cooking demonstrations and blind tasting sessions to compare maize from improved variety with local varieties, focusing on consumption traits like palatability, texture, and ease of cooking.
 We find that the seed sample packs significantly enhance farmers' perceptions of the seed's production traits, while the cooking demonstrations improve appreciation for its consumption traits. We also find that the cooking demonstration and tasting session increased the use of fresh Bazooka seed, with some indications that this also led to higher maize productivity. On the other hand, farmers who received the sample packs are more likely to reuse/recycle the grain harvested from the sample pack as seed in the subsequent season, essentially crowding out the demand for fresh/purchased seed. We argue that this may be a rational response in the context of positive transaction costs related to the use of improved seed varieties

Do empowerment impacts endure? The medium-term impacts of the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Gender Linkages (ANGeL) Project in Bangladesh

Whether impacts of development interventions are sustainable has attracted much recent interest (examples include Bandiera et al., 2017, Banerjee et al., 2021, Blattman et al., 2020, Carneiro et al., 2021, Grisolia, 2024, and Haushofer and Shapiro, 2018). When interventions involve trained facilitators, for example, it is of interest to know whether effects persist once these facilitators are no longer delivering the message (Ahmed et al, forthcoming). The recognition of women’s empowerment and gender equality as intrinsically important has spawned a growing literature on the impacts of development interventions on women’s empowerment (Quisumbing et al. 2023, Quisumbing et al. 2024) and attitudes towards gender roles (Alderman et al. 2025). Yet, with few exceptions (Alderman et al. 2025) there is little overlap between these two areas of work, in large part because many impact evaluations fail to follow up after the initial evaluation is completed. A synthesis of findings from a portfolio of 11 agricultural development projects in South Asia and Africa suggests that, while projects are able to affect aspects of empowerment such as decisionmaking over resources and control over income, changes in gender norms are more difficult to achieve in the two to three year time span over which impact evaluations are typically conducted(Quisumbing et al. 2024). If women’s empowerment interventions aim ultimately to change gender norms, to detect impacts, they should be measured over a sufficiently long period of time to allow for norm change.

Nature-Positive Solutions Initiative survey report: Colombia

This study is part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions for shifting agrifood systems to more resilient and sustainable pathways" (NATURE+), which aims to promote sustainable agricultural productivity through nature-positive solutions (NPS) by addressing three critical challenges:

Land Degradation: Industrial agriculture, while ensuring large-scale food production, has caused severe environmental harm, including 80% of global deforestation, threats to 86% of endangered species, significant biodiversity loss, and up to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It also depletes water and soil health, reducing crop resilience and lowering farming incomes and nutrition outcomes. To mitigate these impacts, a shift toward resilient farming systems that support smallholder farmers and enhance agriculture's role as a positive force for nature is essential.

Limited Evidence and Knowledge to Support NPS: Awareness of the environmental costs of industrial agriculture has highlighted the need for sustainable farming practices, especially after the 2021 UN Food System Summit and the COVID-19 pandemic. NPS has significant potential, including creating 395 million jobs by 2030 (as per the 2020 World Economic Forum). However, gaps in evidence and tools for decision-making hinder scaling efforts. Research in biodiversity, soil health, and waste management is crucial to develop scalable innovations and support agricultural research for community development.

Lack of Business Models for Public-Private Partnerships: The private sector plays a vital role in scaling impact oriented solutions, requiring supportive policies and incentives to encourage investments in sustainable pathways. Developing business models that combine scientific innovation with ecological, social, and livelihood benefits is necessary to foster collaboration and drive smallholder farming toward nature-positive practices.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Capacity strengthening as a pathway to drive food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets: Reflections from the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT)

Food systems are failing to provide sustainable, healthy diets that promote health, environmental sustainability, affordability, and cultural acceptability, leaving over three billion people unable to access such diets. Following calls for transformation after the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and subsequent international dialogues, there is growing recognition of the need for systemic approaches to accelerate food systems transformation (FST). However, many stakeholders remain uncertain about how to implement effective changes, highlighting the need for sustainable development pathways that integrate health, environmental, and inclusion goals. This paper explores what capacities are needed for driving FST, emphasizing the need to strengthen skills and competencies in individuals, organizations, and societies to achieve transformative goals.

Based on the capacity-strengthening experiences of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Vietnam, the paper examines SHiFT’s capacity-strengthening practice used. Key questions addressed include identifying stakeholders who need transformative capacities, the capacities required for different roles, and strategies to inspire meaningful implementation.

The reflections on capacity-strengthening trajectories for food system actors in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Vietnam underscore the need for tailored, inclusive, and adaptive approaches that address the unique dynamics of each food system. Seven guiding principles emerged: contextualizing within political and economic landscapes; employing adult-based, experiential learning; timing of capacity strengthening interventions; navigating power dynamics; embracing emergence and flexibility; fostering diversity; and stimulating personal agency and leadership. These principles highlight the importance of co-creation, continuous reflection, and iterative adaptation, ensuring capacity-building efforts are relevant, effective, and transformative. By exploring practice-based and case-based insights, this paper contributes to understanding how targeted capacity strengthening can support meaningfully to FST.

Key stakeholders, platforms, and networks in Bangladesh’s food systems transformation process, 2022–2024

In 2022, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) conducted a stakeholder identification and analysis activity to develop its strategy for stakeholder engagement. As part of SHiFT’s Work Package 5, Catalyzing Food Systems Transformation, this analysis was used to prepare a stakeholder engagement strategy for Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Viet Nam, SHiFT’s three countries of work. The stakeholder identification and mapping, as well as a report on the country’s food system transformation process and issues, constitute a database that enables rapid selection of potential stakeholders for engagement, capacity sharing, and collaboration, among other purposes. The stakeholder identification process is repeated, typically on a quarterly basis, to update the database.
This summary report is based on information first collected in 2022 and updated as of December 2024. Building understanding, engagement, and capacity with diverse food system stakeholders will help to foster collaboration and coordination across varied perspectives, and to drive transformative actions across the food system for positive outcomes on the environment, food security and nutrition, and livelihoods and inclusion.
SHiFT’s approach is to engage with and provide technical support to relevant stakeholders, networks, and platforms whose objectives are aligned with the Initiative’s goals. This approach aims to contribute to local and national food systems transformation for sustainable healthy diets, rather than facilitating the formation of new networks or platforms that would require more time to build engagement and capacity, and might not be sustainable. The Initiative’s efforts are also meant to avoid overlapping with those of the country’s government and other development partners. Instead, SHiFT aims to create synergies through coordinated actions to achieve national food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets, as well as broader national goals on food systems.

Nature-Positive Solutions Initiative baseline evaluation survey report: India

The pressing need to achieve sustainable agriculture and mitigate climate change has led to a growing recognition of the importance of nature-based solutions (NBS). Defined as interventions that leverage the protective, restorative, and regulatory functions of ecosystems (Cohen-Shacham et al., 2016), NBS offers a holistic approach to addressing a range of environmental and societal challenges. This framework positions humans as active stewards of ecosystems rather than passive beneficiaries. Industrial agriculture, in prioritizing mass-scale food production, has exacted a heavy toll on both the environment and human well-being. Miralles-Wilhelm and Iseman (2021) report that 52 percent of global agricultural lands suffer from moderate to severe degradation due to unsustainable practices, contributing to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, industrial agriculture drives 80 percent of deforestation, threatens 86 percent of the 28,000 species currently at risk of extinction (through habitat conversion and pollution), and accelerates soil and water degradation. The use of chemical inputs, monocropping, and poor waste management further compromise nutrition, reduce crop resilience, and depress farming incomes. These challenges highlight the urgent need to transition toward resilient, nature positive agricultural systems capable of sustaining smallholder farmers and ensuring that agriculture becomes a net contributor to environmental restoration. In response, the One CGIAR initiative, "Nature-positive solutions for shifting agri-food systems to more resilient and sustainable pathways" (NATURE+), seeks to enhance the adoption of nature-positive solutions (NPS) to promote sustainable agricultural productivity. NATURE+ addresses key systemic barriers in three areas: (1) land degradation and resource depletion, (2) limited evidence and knowledge gaps within the agricultural research for development (AR4D) community, and (3) the lack of viable business models to drive public-private partnerships in sustainable agriculture. While the harmful impacts of industrial agriculture are well documented, the AR4D community lacks robust evidence and tailored tools to support NPS planning. The 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and the COVID-19 pandemic have further underscored the need for systemic transformation. The 2020 World Economic Forum report, "The Future of Nature and Business," estimates that NPS could create 395 million jobs by 2030, but achieving this potential requires substantial investment in evidence-based innovation and decision-support tools for biodiversity enhancement, soil management, waste management, and water conservation.

Baseline analysis for an impact evaluation of a home-grown school feeding program in Osun State, Nigeria to support smallholder farmers

Home-Grown School Feeding Programs (HGSFPs) are becoming important policy instruments to improve food security, nutrition, education, agricultural production, and local economic growth (Adeyanju et al., 2024; Abay et al., 2021; Sitali, 2021; Takeshima et al., 2018; Fernandes et al., 2016; Karisa and Ordho, 2014; WFP, 2013). While the potential of HGFSPs to tackle undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies is well documented (Alderman, Bundy, Gelli, 2024), their role in supporting local value chains and smallholder farmers remains an area of active inquiry. Following international trends and lessons, Nigeria started delivering HGSFP which includes utilizing locally sourced foods instead of imports (Dennis et al., 2021). These programs provide school meals using locally sourced food from smallholder farmers within the same community (Sumberg & Sabates-Wheeler, 2011). In 2004, Nigeria’s National HGSFP was piloted in 12 states, covering all six geopolitical zones. However, the national government abruptly halted the program, with Osun relaunching the program in 2012 using state-level funds. Osun State is currently the only Nigerian state that implements the program—and considered one of the more successful states for implementing it. Despite stoppages of the program, lessons learned from the pilot phase offered valuable operational and policy insights for implementing the National HGSFP in 2016, with the aim of using farm produce locally grown by smallholder farmers to provide children with nutritious mid-day meals on every school day (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Prioritizing agri-food system investments under climatic and world price risks

With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact.

Targeting in development projects in Egypt: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned

Effective targeting strategies are vital for almost all development programs. Universal approaches which provide aid to all individuals regardless of need are not always feasible given limited budgets and varying development priorities. Conversely, targeting directs resources to those in greatest need, ensures efficient allocation while upholding principles of social justice, equality, and the right to assistance.

This policy note summarizes the outcomes of a workshop held in Cairo on October 20, 2023, which brought together researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers. The high-level dialogue was part of the “Bridging Evidence and Policy” (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD). The BEP series serves as a platform for knowledge exchange and collaborative learning among donors, local and international implementers, and government representatives, with a focus on improving targeting in development projects. This note highlights the key discussions, offering insights into best practices and recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of program targeting.

Agroecological insights for Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India: a contextual analysis for sustainable transformation

This report examines the agroecological, environmental, economic and social dimensions of Mandla district in Madhya Pradesh, India. Agroecological dimensions include recycling, input reduction, soil health, animal health, biodiversity, synergy, economic diversification, co-creation of knowledge, social values and diets, fairness, connectivity, land and natural resource governance, and participation. The report also highlights the challenges and opportunities for sustainable agroecological transformation.

Mandla, a tribal dominated district faces challenges such as land degradation, poor soil conditions, poor land productivity, biodiversity loss, and socio-economic disparities. To address these challenges, CGIAR initiative on Agroecology established Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) in Mandla district. The initiative identified key challenges, captured the vision of local communities, assessed existing farming practices, and developed new agroecological practices to address some of the challenges.

Local communities recycle resources such as crop residues, animal manure and invasive plant species to prepare compost, farmyard manure and biochar to a limited extent. There is significant increase in synthetic fertilizer use in the last few decades, however some farmers are applying some amount of locally prepared compost, and operating at low input-output conditions, leaving scope of improvement in production with input reduction. The district, predominantly characterized by black cotton soil, faces challenges like soil erosion, low organic content and nutrient deficiencies. Conservation practices such as green manuring, mulching, bunding, silt application, bio-fertilizer, compost application and crop rotation are practiced sporadically to maintain soil health. Cattle and livestock are integral to farming system. Department of Animal Husbandry and local animal health workers are primarily involved in maintaining animal health. Penning, timing open grazing, prohibition of grazing in some areas, and cattle shed flooring are recent introduction for sustainable feeding regimes. The district is rich in natural biodiversity with wide range of flora and fauna, however due to increasing chemical fertilizer use and unsustainable farming practices has led biodiversity loss. Synergy between various faming system, including crop-livestock, agroforestry, NTFP in the landscape need improvement through targeted interventions. Local communities depend on agriculture, NonTimber Forest Products (NTFP), and fisheries for livelihood, contributing to economic diversification, however dwindling natural resources poses risks to the community livelihood. Farmer to farmer interactions, traditional fairs, informal gatherings, seed festivals, farmers field schools, and formal institutions such as NGO’s, government institutions facilitate co-creation of knowledge. Local communities prioritize diverse, nutritious and traditional diets but shrinking production poses a serious threat to dietary diversity. Seasonal festivals and community gatherings also play a key role in maintaining social values and diets.

Limited access to resources, market information, transportation, price disparities and monopoly markets are some of the value chain challenges faced by local communities. Community practices such as wage fixing, labour pooling and labour exchange help maintain fairness. However, Connectivity among various food system and value chain actors is weak and need strengthening. Land and natural resource governance is managed by district administration, state forest department, and local communities including gram sabhas and panchayat committees, which usually adhere to traditional tribal practices. Participation of community organizations such as NGO’s, tribal knowledge networks, state agricultural department, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, department of rural development, Farmers producers’ organization, self-help groups, and Joint Forest Management Committee is crucial for agroecological transition.

The assessment reveals that while agroecological practices are being practiced in Mandla, they are fragmented and implemented at smaller scale but shows potential for scaling up. National and state policies, including Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, National Rural Livelihood Mission, Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana, and local NGO’s can play a pivotal role in agroecological transition. Large scale adoption of agroecology can be achieved by establishing multistakeholder platform, farmers networks and knowledge sharing platforms, access to markets and value chains, capacity building programs, infrastructure and policy support, nature-based solutions, financial mechanisms and incentives, participatory research and trail establishment, inclusive governance structures.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses

The literature on Multistakeholder Processes (MSPs) includes several studies that seek to specify the conditions under which MSPs perform well and deliver tangible governance improvements that would otherwise not happen. This is important research as MSPs are gaining popularity as an alternative to more traditional governance strategies, such as centralized, government-led activities. MSPs are often proposed in institutional settings where formal governance institutions are perceived to be ineffective or inequitable. In principle, studies that explain variation in MSP outcomes have the potential to inform MSP organizers and their decisions about how to organize their future MSPs in ways that save resources and improve outcomes. However, the existing MSP research programs demonstrate at least three limitations: First, the literature is characterized by the production of long lists of potential determinants of MSP performance, which makes it challenging for researchers to offer practical advice as to which of these factors is most important for MSP organizers to address first, and under which contextual conditions. Second, there is little agreement among scholars about what the core elements of a well-functioning MSP are, which elements affect mostly the emergence vis-à-vis effectiveness, and it is rare that studies specify which conditions or factors are essential and which may be helpful but not critical ingredients of success. Third, there is a dearth of theory-driven research that uses causal inference methods to test the theoretical propositions, which means that it is difficult to assess the quality of evidence in literature’s existing, mostly descriptive analyses. To advance knowledge about the emergence and flourishing of MSPs, and move beyond the production of long lists of associative success factors, there is an urgent need for researchers to come together in a community of practice to address the noted shortcomings. The Community of Practice will also promote the development of new and innovative ways of conducting MSP work, which will enable researchers to improve outcomes in terms of both cost-effectiveness and equity. In this paper, we review and synthesize the leading hypotheses on MSP emergence and effectiveness, develop a theoretical framework that captures the leading hypotheses, and discuss the viability of employing causal inference methods to test new hypotheses related to the emergence and flourishing of MSPs. We conclude by outlining the contours of a community of practice and how it can help advance MSP scholarship.

Cointegration analysis of sesame prices in Ethiopian commodity exchange warehouses

This study examines the cointegration of sesame market prices in eight Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) warehouses and its implications for improving the functioning of sesame markets. We analyzed 489 weekly market price data points for each of the eight ECX warehouses, covering the period from end of 2014 to mid-2024. We estimate the Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short- and long-term spatial price adjustments across warehouses. Of the eight warehouses, six showed significant spatial integration. The VECM results showed effective price transmission and strong short- and longterm market relationships. Short-term dynamics particularly revealed complex interactions. These findings highlight the varying impacts of price fluctuations between warehouses and the need to understand these interactions for better strategic decision making, resource allocation, and pricing strategy refinement. Furthermore, accelerating the speed of price pass through is vital to improve the livelihoods of sesame farmers in Ethiopia.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

Consumer response to food safety risk information

Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Migration and women’s voice and agency in Senegal: Introducing a new survey

Millions of poor households around the world rely on migration to improve their economic circumstances and, increasingly, for resilience in the face of a changing climate. In vulnerable contexts, slow-onset climate impacts like water scarcity, rising temperatures, and more variable weather conditions are diminishing local economic opportunities and increasing food insecurity. Such climate impacts are projected to accelerate migration patterns, particularly out-migration from rural areas (Rigaud et al., 2018; SVR, 2023). While news reports on climate migration often emphasize communities leaving an area en masse due to a natural disaster, climate migration due to slow-onset climate shifts, which gradually lower crop yields and hinder agricultural livelihoods, more commonly implies a male household member migrating within a country, often seasonally, in order to send remittances back to his family.

Advancing climate-smart financial solutions for smallholder farmers: Lessons from the CGIAR Climate Resilience Initiative

Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries face climate-related risks that increase their income volatility and compromise their well-being. The CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) has developed and implemented a suite of innovative instruments aimed at transforming the climate adaptation capacity of smallholder farmers. This brief examines the potential of these bundled financial solutions in enhancing smallholder farmers' resilience to climate risks and documents ClimBeR's experience in implementing and scaling these instruments.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Impact of farm size on the function of landscape-level payments for ecosystem services: An agent-based model study

Reducing pesticide use and restoring biodiversity are among the most pressing environmental challenges. Enhancing natural pest control ecosystem services through the integration of non-crop habitats (NCH) offers promising potential, creating a positive feedback loop by harnessing insect biodiversity to reduce pesticide reliance. Policy support is needed at the landscape level to encourage adoption of this currently underutilized approach, which depends on spatial coordination and collective behavioral change. Farm size, which critically influences farmers' agrochemical inputs, agroecological practices, and interactions with neighboring farms, varies across agricultural landscapes. It is unclear what role farm size plays in landscape-scale agri-environmental incentive programs, which have recently seen growing attention in scientific research and policy implementation. We employ framed field games and agent-based modeling as complementary research tools, exploring how farm size impacts the function of landscape-scale NCH subsidies aimed at encouraging coordinated provision and sharing of natural pest control services to reduce pesticide use. Our model simulation shows that, in landscapes of larger average farm size or lower farm size heterogeneity, NCH subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing pesticide use and increasing NCH efficiency in providing joint production benefits. Our results imply that landscape-scale payments for natural pest control ecosystem services face fewer obstacles as incentive-based mechanisms in landscapes of larger, more homogeneous farms, supporting the implementation of landscape-scale initiatives in such areas to effectively enhance ecosystem services. Our findings contribute to the growing discussion around landscape-level financial incentive programs that depend on spatial coordination, highlighting the importance of farmers’ land holding size.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

Program pathways for sustainable, nutrition sensitive school meals: An updated framework

Global burden of disease analyses estimate that 20% of deaths are due to unhealthy diets (Afshin et al., 2019). Micronutrient deficiencies impair children’s physical and mental development (Bailey et al., 2015). The prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents increased from less than 1% in 1975 to 6% for girls and 8% for boys in 2016 (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), 2017). The modernization of food systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has led to rapid shifts to unhealthy diets and reductions in physical activity that have contributed to the global increase in rates of overweight and obesity (Popkin et al., 2020). Moreover, current dietary and population trends will exacerbate risks to people and the planet (Willett et al., 2019). Attention to nutrition during all stages of child and adolescent development is necessary to ensure that children can thrive over the 8,000-day period spanning infancy to adulthood, and to protect investments made earlier in the life cycle (Black et al., 2013). School feeding programs, or school meals, is a widely implemented intervention with documented impacts across social protection, education, health and nutrition (Alderman et al., 2024). Globally, programs reach about 368 million children for a total investment of about $70 billion a year (World Food Programme, 2020).

Would you rather? Household choice between cash transfers or an economic inclusion program

We study households’ choice between continued cash transfers and a new economic inclusion program—two global prevalent social protection programs—offered by the Egyptian government. Lower-than-expected early adoption of the new program is correlated with differing perceptions on its design. We randomize official messaging to households describing the new program’s (i) consumption support duration and (ii) income-earning potential. Both treatments increase respondents’ likelihood of recommending the new program. A theoretical model estimated using households’ perceptions of program design predicts interest in the new program, and how it diminishes with increasing effort costs, asset loss probability, risk aversion and loss aversion.

Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review

This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector.

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Drivers of agrifood system transformation in Odisha

Globally, agrifood systems (AFS) are experiencing rapid transformation driven by a range of factors. This transformation process is also observed across several states of India, including Odisha. This study develops a conceptual framework to examine the key drivers of AFS transformation in Odisha. Analytical tools, including trend analysis, the Simpson Index, and the Just-Pope Yield function, were used to assess the impact of various determinants of changes in the state’s AFS. The report presents an analysis and breakdown of growth trends in the agrifood system over the last two decades, identifies constraints and opportunities for future growth, and evaluates the coherence of government agricultural policies, offering direction for future policies to manage and motivate AFS transformation in Odisha. Odisha’s AFS is characterized by diverse stakeholders, with smallholder farmers facing significant challenges, particularly from climate-induced shocks and the volatility in agricultural gross value added (GVA). Among farming households, wage income now surpasses earnings from traditional agricultural activities, such as crop cultivation and livestock production. Several demographic and economic factors, including population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes, have profoundly influenced the structure and operations of the AFS, as evidenced by increasing demand for higher-value food products, including processed foods. The adoption of innovative technologies, such as Bt cotton and climate-resilient crop varieties, has enhanced farm productivity and profitability, driving crop diversification. Increased use of purchased farm inputs, such as high-yielding variety seeds, inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery, has further shaped Odisha’s agrifood landscape. Government policies, including higher annual budget allocations for irrigation infrastructure, climate-resilient technologies, subsidized credit and insurance, and farmer welfare programs, have been instrumental in shaping Odisha’s AFS. However, despite strong growth, the fisheries sector remains underfunded compared to other subsectors. Improved rural infrastructure—such as expanded road and irrigation networks, grain and cold storage facilities, mobile connectivity, and improved market access—has contributed positively to AFS transformation in the state. Additionally, rural organizations, including farmer producer organizations (FPO), self-help groups (SHG), Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) and agricultural extension centers, have played a crucial role in advancing the state agricultural initiatives, such as Shree Anna Abhiyan, the special programme for promotion of millets in tribal areas of Odisha. The increasing number of hotels and restaurants, coupled with rising investments in the agrifood industry, underscores the expanding role of the agro-processing sector in Odisha’s economy. To revitalize rural economies, efforts should focus on boosting rural non-farm sectors, enhancing farm productivity, and strengthening infrastructure, particularly logistics and cold chain facilities. Investments in agrifood processing, promoting digital marketing, and fostering climate-resilient technologies are also important. Small farmers need support through strengthened FPOs, better access to quality seeds and mechanization, especially women farmers. Policies should be modified to promote increased crop and enterprise diversification, fishery sector growth, and organic farming. Agrifood parks and research in processing technologies can increase value addition and promote entrepreneurship within the AFS. Finally, solar energy integration will ensure sustainability and economic growth across agrifood value chains.

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds.
SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Food avoidance among breastfeeding mothers in Myanmar and its impacts on maternal dietary quality

Key Findings
• This study designed and analyzed two new surveys in Myanmar. The first one is the fifth Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) round conducted from April to June 2023, in which 12,953 respondents were surveyed, including 5,512 women of reproductive age (15-49). The second is the Rural Urban Food Security Survey conducted in 2020, in which respondents were women who were pregnant in round 1 (June-July 2020) in Yangon and participated in at least five of those six rounds.
• Forty percent of all Myanmar women aged 15-49 believe that breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one healthy food, with vegetables the most widely cited food to be avoided, followed by fruits, fish, meat and beans/nuts.
• Beliefs were prevalent throughout Myanmar’s diverse regions and across both genders, but more common in majority Buddhist regions (and less common in majority Christian regions).
• Beliefs in food avoidance during breastfeeding were less prevalent among women with more formal education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers.
• Mothers in the Yangon panel saw minimum dietary diversity of women (MDD-W) fall by 46 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, stemming from significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups.
• MDD-W recovered somewhat over the second to fifth months after birth but was still significantly lower up to the sixth month after birth.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Three: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Round 3 provides nationally and sub-nationally representative data on agricultural performance, integrating insights from 4,892 farming households. Conducted between January and March 2023, this survey leverages phone-based data collection to address logistical challenges posed by Myanmar's remote and conflict-affected regions. MAPS modules encompass critical agricultural indicators, including crop production, marketing, input usage, farm assets, and services. The survey design integrates rigorous sampling and weighting strategies to ensure representation across demographic and geographical strata. Findings highlight variations in agricultural practices between seasons and years, alongside challenges in household retention due to conflict and infrastructure limitations. Despite attrition and inherent limitations of phone surveys, MAPS successfully enumerated 271 out of 324 townships, contributing vital data for understanding agricultural dynamics in Myanmar.