Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

The emerging one-stop shop in agricultural value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include:
1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016.
2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013.
3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains.
4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services.
5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions.
6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers.
7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge.
8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers.
9. Policy Implications:
• The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns.
• The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit.
• The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides.
• Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

Report on capacity strengthening training on best practices in outcome assessment, data interpretation and agricultural policy analysis

The Capacity Strengthening Workshop on Best Practices in Impact Evaluation, Data Interpretation, and Agricultural Policy Analysis (Phase 1) was conducted on April 22-23, 2025, aiming to build the foundational skills of fieldbased government officials in using agricultural data for informed decision-making. To strengthen its initiative on developing the Inclusive Agriculture Transformation (IAT) indicator, IFPRI has proposed a three-phased capacity-building program for key departmental staff. The objective is to enhance their understanding of the importance of data and its systematic maintenance. This initial phase focused on enhancing participants' understanding of various agricultural datasets and equipping them with basic skills in data interpretation and visualization. The workshop was inaugurated by Dr. Arabinda Kumar Padhee, Principal Secretary to Government, Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment, Government of Odisha. The workshop was designed as part of a comprehensive capacity-building initiative to support the Inclusive Agriculture Transformation (IAT) framework, promoting evidence-based policy formulation and implementation.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

Agricultural mechanization policy in Bangladesh: An assessment of the phase III support program and recommendations for reform

This report assesses Bangladesh's Phase III agricultural mechanization support program (2020–2024), examining the distribution, impacts, and governance of subsidies for agricultural machines—particularly combine harvesters (CHs). We analyze program effectiveness and identify critical imple mentation gaps using mixed-methods research combining administrative data analysis; a representative survey of 979 Machinery Service Providers (MSPs), including 400 CH MSPs sampled across 10 districts representing Bangladesh’s major agroecological zones and mechanization intensity; panel data from over 2,000 nationally representative Boro rice–producing households; and 128 qualitative interviews to analyze program effectiveness and pinpoint critical implementation gaps.

Protocol for management of weedy rice (Red Rice) in biofortified rice production systems

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest August 2025

The sixth edition of the Abstract Digest underscores a complex and evolving nutrition landscape in South Asia, characterized by the persisting "triple burden" of malnutrition – undernutrition, overweight and obesity, and anemia. The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown to 2030 provides an overarching global and regional assessment of reproductive, maternal, child, and adolescent health and nutrition, with an emphasis on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in South Asia.

Broadly, the featured articles examine the importance of preconception care and interventions to improve maternal and child health, alongside analyses of antenatal care service utilization and its associated factors. Studies also examine the prevalence and determinants of various forms of malnutrition, and assess the effectiveness and cost-benefit of nutrition programs and interventions, focusing on India and Bangladesh. A few articles focus on adolescent nutrition, highlighting the rising rates of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in countries like Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as opportunities to improve maternal, infant, young child, and adolescent nutrition service delivery in Bangladesh, India, and beyond. Several articles delve into the influence of food environments on dietary quality and health in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, as well as the broader context of health systems and policy implementation in LMICs. Many of the studies in this edition call for future research on rigorous evaluations of scalable interventions in real-world settings.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies, and information on relevant events. If you were forwarded this Abstract Digest, we invite you to subscribe!

Happy reading!

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are important development goals for their intrinsic value as well as for achieving other important wellbeing outcomes, such as improved health, nutrition, and food security. Agricultural research for development plays an important role in understanding gender relations, dynamics, and inequalities and in identifying effective strategies and interventions to achieve these goals. The Feed the Future Innovation Labs (ILs) were initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and led by U.S. universities, in partnership with international and national research institutes, with the aim to achieve poverty reduction, food security, nutrition, and resilience objectives. The ILs also aimed to facilitate women’s empowerment and address gender inequality in agri-food systems (AFS).

This study aims to document, categorize, and identify learnings from gender-related research produced by the ILs through an extensive desk review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with gender focal points, researchers, and directors at the ILs. While recognizing the importance of capacity building for gender-related research, we only look at research products and do not review capacity building or other training materials for gender-related research produced by the ILs. As this study is focused on understanding gender-related learnings, we also do not include gender-blind research products produced by the ILs. Based on the final set of research outputs that have at least some focus on gender, we then analyze the gender-related research findings using the reach, benefit, empower, and transform framework. In addition, we also explore the factors that enabled ILs to prioritize and produce gender-related research and learnings.

We draw lessons about the types of research studies that have been carried out under the ILs and the insights that can be gleaned from these studies for designing agricultural innovations and interventions and understanding what works to address gender inequalities in agrifood systems. Much of this work was gender focused and diagnostic or formative. Fewer research studies employed causal methods to understand how interventions are influencing gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Only a subset of research focused on specific innovations or interventions, which suggests more research is needed in this area, particularly as new innovations are being tested and scaled, as was the objective of many of the ILs. We highlight areas where additional research is needed to inform investments and interventions going forward, such as an increase in integrating gender-informed approaches in research across disciplines, gender-related research that employs causal methods, and in understanding the impacts of interventions that are gender-transformative. Finally, we identify key enabling factors that helped ILs prioritize gender integration, such as institutional leadership’s support for gender integration, sufficient time and budgets earmarked for gender work and staff, and ensuring staff responsible for gender-related research have requisite skills, expertise, and communication skills to work across interdisciplinary teams. Current and future agricultural research for development projects should prioritize gender-related research across their portfolios to strengthen attention to understanding how innovations and interventions can influence gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Do estimates of women’s control over income and decisionmaking vary across nationally representative survey programs?

Empowering women is an explicit aim of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 and underpins 12 of the 17 SDGs. It is also a key objective of other pan-national agreements, such as the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme. Tracking global progress toward these goals requires being able to measure empowerment in ways that are consistent and comparable—both within and across countries. However, empowerment is a complex concept, hard to quantify, and even harder to standardize across contexts. Two large survey programs—Feed the Future and the Demographic Health Surveys—ask women about two aspects of empowerment, their control over income and input into decisionmaking. Each program uses a different set of questions administered to different sub-populations of women. We use data from 12 countries to show that large within-country inter-survey differences persist even after efforts to harmonize questions and samples. Where available, we compare the FTF and DHS with the Living Standards and Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We present several hypotheses related to survey structure and survey administration to explain these inter-survey differences. We then either test for or rule out the role of these competing theories in driving differences in levels and in associations with commonly used characteristics. Standardizing survey measures of decision making and control over income and how they are administered is important to track progress toward the SDGs; meanwhile, caution should be exercised in comparing seemingly similar survey items across survey programs.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Sierra Leone: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Sierra Leone Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

Banking systems, capital markets, and financing the transformation of food systems: The role of macroeconomics, regulations, and incentives

Improving food systems requires significant expenditures and investments from both the public and private sector. In the case of public outlays, the decisions are taken by the government or by multilateral international organizations (with governments as their owners), while, obviously, private expenditures and investments depend on choices by the private sector. These private financial flows are guided by the decisions of consumers, producers, banking system institutions, and operators in capital markets. Public policy cannot dictate directly how those private actors act (for instance, governments cannot mandate that consumers must eat healthy diets), but it can influence those decisions through adequate macroeconomic, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. This discussion paper will focus briefly on some ideas about how those frameworks can reorient and expand current levels of funding towards food systems transformation, focusing particularly on banking systems and capital markets. First, it briefly analyzes the levels of financial flows in the banking system and capital markets. Then it looks at the role of macroeconomic policy in influencing the operations of food systems, followed by suggestions about other regulatory and incentive frameworks to create healthy, equitable, sustainable and climate-resilient food systems.

Kisan credit card and smallholder farmers’ economic performance in eastern India: A panel data analysis

Farmers in India continue to be deprived of adequate and timely institutional credit. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in 1998, sought to address this issue by providing credit support under a single window with simplified procedure. Using a panel data of 2,586 farming households from five states in Eastern India, namely, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal in 2018 and 2023, we examine the determinants of access to KCC and its credit limit. We also analyze the impact of KCC on farmers’ input usage, dependence on moneylenders and farm income using propensity score weighted fixed effects model which controls for selection bias and unobservable time-invariant heterogeneities. We find that farmers’ participation in agricultural training, demonstrations and development programs encourage farmers to adopt KCC. Furthermore, KCC access increases farmers’ input usage and reduces their dependence on money lenders. This evidence comes from an economically challenged region whose economy significantly depends on agriculture. The findings of the study raise concerns over the limited penetration of the scheme among smaller-scale farmers and provide key insights into the underlying issues hindering the efficacious functioning of the scheme.

Advancing forest-based carbon trading in Nepal: Policy challenges and agroforestry opportunities

Nepal remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters. Although several national policy documents have emphasized the urgency of mitigation and adaptation, climate action remains fragmented and significantly underfunded. Nepal’s unique geography—spanning the Himalayas, mid-hills, and Tarai plains—together with recent decentralization reforms offers a favorable context for implementing localized, context-specific solutions to climate threats. However, the lack of consistent policy frameworks, weak institutional mechanisms, limited investment, and fragmented governance across all levels of government continue to impede progress.

In this policy note, we use carbon trading in the forestry sector as a case study to illustrate broader policy challenges and opportunities in Nepal and other Global South countries. Trading is a market-based mechanism that incentivizes the offset of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through credits for CO2 sequestration.. Nepal has adopted this approach in line with international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. As one of the major strategies, the country has sought to capitalize on its forest resources to generate carbon credits and attract international climate finance.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative's approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

Developing a regional cooperation strategy for scaling up climate-smart agriculture in South Asia

Climate change being a global environmental problem, a cooperative approach involving all the sovereign countries is required to achieve an optimal solution. Caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons, climate change has global effects that are independent of the geographical sources of these emissions. However, the adverse impacts of global warming and extreme weather events associated with climate change are not uniformly distributed, as vulnerable populations in less-developed countries bear the brunt of the damage. Some of these climate-vulnerable nations contribute less than 1 per cent of global GHG emissions, including Bhutan (0.0057%), Sri Lanka (0.072%), Nepal (0.105%), and Bangladesh (0.522%) in South Asia.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users.

The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity.

With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation.

A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management.

Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets.

A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes.

The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food. We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as integrated parts of dynamic food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems.

Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run.

Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation.

Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges.

Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice.

Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing.

Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions.

Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change.

Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist.

Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise.

Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today.

Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain.

Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain.

Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future.

To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups.

The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports.

Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land.

Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow.

Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

Global food demand is projected to increase as incomes rise, and diets will continue shifting toward more nutrient-dense foods, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

IMPACT model projections indicate that global production for all agricultural commodities will increase by over 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, driven by innovation and productivity growth, but resource constraints and climate change pose challenges. As with demand, production is projected to grow fastest in LMICs.

In the coming decades, food demand is projected to outpace production in most LMIC regions. As a result, most of these regions, with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), are expected to increase their reliance on imports.

Increases in production and trade are expected to enhance food availability, but most LMIC regions are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2.1 on ending hunger by 2030.

Strengthening model integration and incorporating socioeconomic disaggregation will enhance IMPACT’s ability to provide more comprehensive insights for decision-making to address these challenges.

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models.

More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt.

In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events.

Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households.

Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024.

El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region.

El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance.

Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds.

As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

Rapid growth in the livestock and fisheries subsectors, driven by increasing demand, has advanced the frontiers of agricultural growth in India.

Irrigation plays the dual role of enhancing both productivity and resilience in agriculture, but increasing reliance on groundwater for irrigation and the consequent decline in groundwater levels impede the sustainable transformation of India’s agrifood production systems.

Although climate change is a significant challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, implementation of climate-smart interventions can significantly improve agricultural productivity and resilience.

Changing dietary patterns reinforce the need to reshape agricultural policies to promote diversification of agriculture in favor of nutrient-dense foods, including animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables.

Diversification may contribute to the enhanced sustainability of natural resources, mitigate risk, and augment farm income, thereby addressing nutrition insecurity and reducing farm poverty.

Enhancing self-sufficiency in specific commodities, such as edible oils and pulses, requires technological advancements and safeguards against low-cost imports.

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods.

Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities.

The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level.

Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change.

Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people.

Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase.

Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

Many food systems-related databases, tools, and dashboards are available, but to ensure these tools are helpful for decision-makers, they must be harmonized and their sophistication increased to capture trade-offs and synergies.

The Food Systems Countdown Initiative holds great potential to address this need, but its success will depend on several factors, such as filling national and subnational data gaps, ensuring countries formalize their commitments, translating global ambitions into national contexts, and integrating sectoral policies and programs.

A new generation of food systems indicators must capture multifaceted interactions, trade-offs, and synergies by integrating observations, models, and complex system analyses with clear metadata for appropriate use.

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

The global energy transition currently in process involves increases in variable renewable energy generation and ongoing electrification of transport and industrial processes, leading to the possibility of absolute declines in the use of coal and petroleum before 2030.

This transition creates both opportunities and risks for agrifood systems.

Trade will be an important impact channel for net exporters and net importers of fossil fuels, with impacts spilling into the agrifood sector.

Improvements in energy technology, particularly solar generation, have broad applications with potentially large implications for agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of wheat?

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South.

Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant.

Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein.

Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits.

Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

Urbanization and income growth lead to more diverse diets and increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) in lower-income countries, while in some higher-income countries, consumer preferences may slowly be shifting away from ASF.

A significant shift in diets is projected for lower-income countries, with the demand for ASF expected to increase by 20 percent in absolute kcal/person/day terms under conditions of baseline socioeconomic trends to 2050.

Projected shifts in ASF consumption will disrupt local-to-global food production and distribution, but most attention has focused on its implications for nutrition and health, climate, and the environment, with less attention to socioeconomic and livelihood impacts.

Strategies proposed for addressing the complex and multidimensional future impacts of changes in ASF demand, production, and distribution need further exploration.

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

The total amount of cropland across the globe is likely to expand over the next three decades due to rising demand for food along with feed for livestock.

Pasture will likely be stable or contract as livestock production continues to shift away from grazing and toward intensive use of feed and transported fodder.

Climate change will increase the overall challenge and drive additional cropland expansion by generally reducing potential yields, although some crops and locations will benefit (typically higher latitudes and, to a lesser extent, higher elevations).

Natural land will be displaced by cropland in some areas. In particular, forests in the tropics are at greater risk of conversion than in other regions. Beyond cropland incursion, the types, mixes, and footprints of natural vegetation may be affected by climate change.

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a).

Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries.

Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge.

Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty.

More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food systems?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation.

Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment.

Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment.

Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition.

While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

Root, tuber, and banana (RT&B) crops are vital for food and nutrition security, providing quick calories, buffering against food crises, and offering opportunities for gender empowerment, particularly in seed systems. Their resilience to adverse weather and their sustainable integration into diverse farming systems enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impact.

Production and consumption of fresh and processed RT&B crops are projected to increase by 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, by 2050 in developing countries. Total RT&B production could reach almost 1.4 billion tons, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) emerging as the world’s leading supplier of RT&B crops.

RT&Bs are mostly nontraded crops, although opportunities exist in some areas, such as intraregional exports of bananas from some SSA countries and cross-border trade of fresh potatoes between countries in Africa and Asia.

Improving foresight research on biotic and abiotic stresses, trade, labor, and the efficiency of processing capacity and reducing postharvest losses in RT&B crops could contribute to stabilizing their supply in the developing world, lowering import reliance, and creating local economic opportunities.

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

Food assistance has evolved to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, reflecting the broader scope of interventions beyond traditional food aid.

Localized and cash-based assistance is growing in importance, but externally sourced, in-kind assistance remains crucial in areas where markets and food systems are disrupted and thus unable to ensure timely and stable access to nutritious food.

Future food assistance needs will increasingly reflect changing geographies, growing urban food insecurity, and heightened market volatility, requiring adaptive, anticipatory, and multilayered strategies.

Significant gaps remain in understanding how to sustainably transition from international food assistance to locally driven, resilient food systems that address long-term nutritional adequacy and adapt to compounding crises.

Foresight research can help highlight the intersection of climate change, conflict, and economic volatility as key drivers of future food assistance needs, and the nature of innovations to boost efficiency and impact.

Expanded use of digital tools and integration of food assistance into social protection systems offer promising pathways toward enhanced efficiency and impact. Further research is needed to ensure that innovations reach the most vulnerable in low-resource settings and that integrated systems are sustainable.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion.

Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate.

To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency.

Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

Addressing the dual challenge of limited resources and a large population, China must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and environmental sustainability.

The shift toward a more nutritionally balanced diet by 2050 will not only improve public health but also significantly alter the demand patterns for various food commodities, increasing the need for strategic adjustments in agricultural production.

Technological innovation in agriculture presents a critical solution to overcoming constraints of land and water, highlighting the importance of continued investment in research and development for sustainable growth.

Future agricultural transformations will likely involve a move away from traditional small-scale farming toward more efficient and cooperative agricultural models, driven by rural demographic changes and the growth of socialized service organizations.

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data).

These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns.

ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact.

The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined.

Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-processed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber.

Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010.

Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient deficiencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high-income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals.

Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutritional indicators.

Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends.

A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs.

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets.

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

Rice prices declined nationally, falling by almost 20 percent year-on-year, with sharp drops in Kayah and Kayin, but significant increases in Shan (East). Rice prices are lowest in secure, major rice-producing areas and highest in most conflict- and earthquake-affected regions. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged, led by beef (up 47 percent) and pork (up 64 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand and a seasonal fishing ban. Multiple risks lie ahead, including the aftermath of the March earthquake, falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and uncertain monsoon season production, all of which may undermine farm income and food security.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya's economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025).

A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns--average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Nigeria

Nigeria’s agri-food sector is one of the largest and most complex in sub-Saharan Africa, encompassing diverse crops, regions, actors, and markets. With agriculture contributing approximately 24% to the national GDP and employing over 70% of the rural workforce (CBN, nd), the sector plays a central role in livelihoods, food security, and inclusive growth. Within this sector, agri-food value chains constitute the connective tissue that links smallholder farmers, processors, traders, input suppliers, and consumers, both within the domestic economy and across international markets.

Nigeria's agricultural output is predominantly driven by staple food crops such as maize, rice, and cassava, while export-oriented value chains like cocoa provide significant foreign exchange and economic diversification potential. These chains vary widely in terms of modernization, capital intensity, and integration into digital financial services. Staple crop chains are typically domestic-facing and labor-intensive, offering high employment shares and deep linkages with poverty alleviation. Export-oriented chains, although narrower in farmer reach, tend to offer higher margins, foreign earnings, and exposure to quality standards and global market dynamics.

Case studies on efforts to digitalize payments in agri-food value chains

Agriculture remains the backbone of rural economies across much of both Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, employing 54 and 43 percent of the workforce, respectively, and providing livelihoods for most of the rural poor (GSMA, 2020; Nair and Varghese, 2020). Yet, financial transactions in agri-food value chains continue to rely overwhelmingly on cash. The 2021 Global Findex survey finds that most adults in low- and middle-income countries who were paid for agricultural products received their payment in cash. On average, one in four recipients, and fewer than one in six in Sub-Saharan Africa, received agricultural payments into an account (Nair and Varghese, 2020; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2022).
This reliance on cash introduces a range of inefficiencies and risks, including high transaction costs, security vulnerabilities, lack of transparency, and exclusion from formal financial services (BTCA, 2023a). Digitalizing agricultural payments offers a promising solution to these challenges. Digital financial ser vices (DFS) for the agriculture sector, including mobile money, e-wallets, digital banking, digital credit, savings products, insurance, and e-commerce solutions tailored to agricultural value chains, can facilitate safer, faster, and more transparent transactions while simultaneously connecting farmers and intermediary actors to broader financial ecosystems (GSMA, 2020). By digitalizing payments, farmers can build
verifiable financial histories that enable access to formal credit and insurance markets, manage income more effectively, and reduce the risks associated with cash handling. For agribusinesses, digital payments offer substantial operational efficiencies: they lower cash handling costs, improve procurement transparency, support traceability initiatives crucial for compliance with international sustainability standards, and enhance supplier loyalty through faster and more reliable payment processes (Beaman et al., 2014; Nair and Varghese, 2020; BTCA, 2023a).

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions.

TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only.

This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

Double burden or Newfound freedom? Women’s empowerment amid large-scale male labor migration from rural Tajikistan

Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members.

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades.

While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure.

This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Persistence of individual and social preferences in rural settings

Preferences play a key role in decision-making and are generally assumed as time-invariant in economic modeling despite the mixed empirical evidence. We examine the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock. We employ a unique longitudinal dataset comprising 1,262 smallholder households, based on interviews with household heads conducted across four survey waves between 2019 and 2022. We find a temporal, two-year shift in risk tolerance, while interpersonal trust and generosity perceptions show a sustained deterioration over three years. We explore possible variations by household characteristics and the degree of exposure to the virus, self-confinement, and extreme weather events.

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya's workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country's GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023).

Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya's most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya's export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country's GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa's leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023).

Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Key narratives around agroecological transitions. A systematic literature review of the current debate

As agrifood systems face mounting socio-ecological challenges, agroecology is increasingly viewed as a comprehensive approach to achieving sustainability. However, the public debate over whether this is the most suitable approach or whether it is viable at a large scale remains open. Examining how this debate unfolds is crucial as it can shape the future of agrifood systems. This paper contributes by conducting a systematic literature review to identify key perspectives and actors shaping the public debate around agroecology. Perspectives are framed around three narratives labeled “supportive,” “skeptical,” and “pragmatic.” These narratives are articulated across sub-narratives in six highly debated areas: (1)initial transition costs, (2) input use and supply chain systems, (3) yield potential, (4) labor, (5) scalability, and (6) market access. The review also accounts for a broad group of actors participating in the debate from multiple – sometimes ambiguous and fluid – perspectives. The review shows that mobilizing the debate to enable agroecological transitions requires an integrative approach under-scored by knowledge co-creation and collective learning. Based on insights from participatory approaches, we provide considerations for making these processes work and highlight areas that require further examination

Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal

The world continues to grapple with acute hunger, malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, and other crises. In 2023, approximately 864 million people experienced severe food insecurity (FAO et al. 2024). On the one hand, poor policy adoption disrupts market and supply chain vulnerabilities, exacerbates food insecurity, and causes economic instability and crises (Hélène and Cohen 2020). On the other hand, disasters and extreme weather conditions significantly damage available infrastructure, transportation networks, and storage facilities, disrupting the distribution of agricultural commodities and as well as regular food patterns (Hasegawa et al. 2021). The COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action recognizes that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform to meet the challenges of climate change. It commits to integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action while simultaneously mainstreaming climate action across policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems (UNFCCC 2023).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania's economic framework, significantly contributing to the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025).
Tanzania's agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Scaling impact, enriching lives: HarvestPlus 2024 annual report

In 2024, the Global South continued to face food and nutrition insecurity driven by conflict, economic shocks, forced displacement, and climate extremes. Malnutrition persists at high levels, especially among children, while funding for solutions is declining. A fundamental rethink is needed about how to sustainably meet the food and nutrition needs of vulnerable populations. At HarvestPlus, we are acting urgently to scale up nutrients in diets in Asia, Africa, and South America. By the end of 2024, over 360 million people benefited from more nutritious diets through biofortified foods—a nine percent increase over last year. There is an additional reach of biofortified crops through organizations like International Potato Center (CIP), The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, IITA, and others civil society actors which is heartening to note. We continued to empower women smallholder farmers along the value chain with knowledge, business skills, and opportunities. They are driving change by developing and marketing nutrientenriched foods within their communities, making their local food systems more resilient. Improving the nutrition of children and adolescents is a vital focus of our work. This year, we strengthened local supply chains and facilitated the inclusion of home-grown nutritious crops in school meal programs. As a result, over one million schoolchildren in Asia and Africa had access to meals enriched with biofortified foods. These efforts, combined with our delivery of nutrition education, are shaping healthier, more productive futures. A special thank you to Chef Sanjeev Kapoor for championing this work in India under our Nutri-Pathshala school meal model. Partnerships with CGIAR centers and national agricultural research and extension systems (NARES) enabled the release of 12 new biofortified crop varieties in five countries in 2024. These varieties provide farmers with competitive yields and more nutrients—adding diversity to the agricultural system while enriching the food system. By boosting supply and demand, we are making nutrient-rich foods more affordable, available, and accessible for the most vulnerable. Our delivery models scale innovations like biofortification and other nutritious crops and technologies rapidly and at low cost, ensuring they reach those who need them most and create impact at scale. In Pakistan, over 50 percent of wheat grain production is now zinc-enriched, funded primarily through public and private seed sector investments. In Nigeria, over 10 million people are consuming vitamin A maize on farms, with the private sector playing a major role in its scaleup. Going forward, these delivery models will be deployed through our scaling arm, HarvestPlus Solutions. We are encouraged by strong interest from the private sector in partnering with HarvestPlus Solutions. These partnerships are central to our long-term development work, particularly in the current funding environment. In 2024, we continued to transition HarvestPlus’ delivery and commercialization work to HarvestPlus Solutions and its network of partners. Sustainability is at the core of our approach, where local actors lead local solutions at the last mile. Our progress in 2024 is thanks to the collective dedication and passion of our team, partners, and donors. We have come a long way, but there’s still more to do. With continued support, we can deepen our impact, accelerate innovation, and nourish millions more.

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

Food systems face dire challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource overuse. To ensure their long-term sustainability and resilience they need urgent transformation, while continuing to support livelihoods and address rising food insecurity. The design and management of multifunctional agricultural landscapes offer a pathway to address these challenges; and improved understanding of landscape complexity, including a diverse mix of natural and cropland covers, can help advance achievement of multiple food system goals. As land managers and decision makers plan for the future of our landscapes, they need to recognize that powerful forces outside their control will have a strong influence on the final outcome. This study explores the interplay between global drivers—such as population growth, economic trends, climate change—and landscape complexity, using a modeling system linking a global agricultural economic model to a land-use model. Global trends are described, and Kenya serves as a case study, representing broader local dynamics. Results indicate that the majority of agricultural landscapes, globally and in Kenya, are projected to experience increased complexity by 2050, primarily through cropland expansion at the expense of natural habitats. However, there are a few instances where an expansion in cropland may be liked to a decrease in landscape complexity. Patterns also vary under alternative scenarios of agricultural development. Where greater complexity is achieved through policies that further concentrate agricultural land in some areas, this is mainly associated with net gains in natural habitats and a contraction of cropland. Overall, this preliminary research underscores the need for integrated landscape management and more comprehensive scenarios to inform sustainable land-use planning aligned with global food security and environmental objectives.

Scaling strategy for ShambaShield: Inclusive bundled finance for smallholders

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar, 2021-2024: Findings from eight rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Economic and social outcomes of investment on infrastructure and early warning system in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

Irrigation and timely access to sufficient volumes of water are vital to increase crops productivity, rural incomes, and food security (FAO 2023; World Bank 2021). In Tajikistan, irrigation sector faces several challenges and constraints such as: aged, poorly maintained infrastructure and poor management system that led low-quality irrigation services; limited investment in drainage infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, poor water management, and harmful irrigation practices that led salinization and waterlogging in some irrigated areas. In addition, the ongoing process of climate change and rising temperatures will increase crop water demands, while water supply reliability will decline, leading to more-severe, more-frequent water stress. The minimum required operation and maintenance on irrigation infrastructure estimated to be about US$35 million per year. Around 85 percent of cultivated land is irrigated and provides more than 90 percent of the total value of crop production. Since independence, the condition and performance of irrigation infrastructure has declined because of severe underfinancing.

More than 40 percent of irrigated areas depend on pumping (the highest dependency in Central Asia), and many high-lift, high-volume pumping stations are in poor condition. Pumping is inefficient (~0.28 kWh/m3, which accounts for 20 percent of total national electricity use). The economic productivity of irrigation is among the lowest 5 percent of countries in the world (~0.21 USD/m) because of high water loss, predominance of low-value crops, and low yields. Irrigation is heavily subsidized but still underfunded. Between 2016 and 2019, the share of public agriculture expenditure on irrigation infrastructure was high (44.6 percent or 880.3 million Tajik Somoni). Irrigation is financed through direct transfers for electricity, government subsidies for pumping station staff costs, revenue from irrigation service fees, WUA membership fees (for on-farm operations and maintenance), and donor investments. More than 60 percent of irrigation capital expenditures (including flood protection) is donor financed (Khakimov et al. 2024; World Bank. SWIM Project 2022).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on research and development in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

The World Bank’s agriculture sector public expenditure review study (World Bank 2021) findings indicates that public expenditure on agriculture sector remains relatively small at less than one percent of GDP, though grew significantly between 2015 and 2020, and the sector relies heavily on donor financing (54 percent). There is a notable underinvestment in R&D, 0.7 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019, which impacts productivity and climate resilience.

In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on Research and Development (R&D) to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan agrifood system (AFS), we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023).

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – May 2025

The rapidly evolving agricultural and food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic, and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Sudan: Cereal markets and trade

Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially.

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

This study investigates the living income gap among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. It uses detailed survey data collected from coffee farmers organized in cooperatives and from coffee farm workers in Nyeri and Murang’a counties. Our analysis finds that coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark, with the gap being particularly severe in Murang’a and among those with smaller landholdings. Sensitivity analyses show that enhancing prices paid to farmers and improving yields can partially reduce the income shortfall. For instance, doubling both parameters, especially when coupled with a 50 percent increase in farmers’ non-coffee income, lowers the incidence of households below the benchmark from more than 90 percent to about 67 percent. Yet, even under these relatively optimal conditions, the persistence of a significant gap underscores deep structural constraints in the local economy. Policy recommendations therefore call for a multidimensional approach that improves production efficiency, improves and stabilizes prices, promotes income diversification, and strengthens institutional support.

Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan

This paper presents a model-based and data-driven analysis of alternative public investment options for Tajikistan’s agrifood system based on cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes. The study indicates that there is no single intervention that is the most cost-effective across all economic and social outcomes, including agrifood GDP growth, job creation, poverty reduction, lowered undernourishment, and improvement in diet quality. Irrigation infrastructure development, R&D in husbandry, and food loss and waste reduction are the most cost-effective investments in the combined economic outcomes, including growth and jobs. In contrast, irrigation, food loss and waste reduction, and seed systems are more effective in the combined social outcomes, including poverty, undernourishment, and diet. Considering time horizons, extension services are more effective in the short run, while irrigation and R&D deliver greater impact over time. Sector variations in the magnitude of effects are also observed among investment interventions. Overall, comparisons across development outcomes, sectoral focus, and timeframes reveal important synergies and trade-offs, underscoring the need for evidence-based tools to guide effective policy and investment decisions.

Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.

Weather risks and international migration: Panel-data evidence from Tajikistan

Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical.

Country profile – Ethiopia: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region's fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019).

Fragility and conflict: Addressing crises and building resilient food systems

More than ever before, hunger and malnutrition are concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected areas around the world. This chapter reflects on the evolution of food policy research conducted in these areas over the past 50 years and looks ahead at how policy solutions will need to evolve to address the critical challenges that fragility and conflict present for building resilient food systems.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Social protection programs: Building the evidence and defining priorities

Social protection programs to reduce poverty, food insecurity, and vulnerability in low- and middle-income countries have become increasingly prominent over the last 50 years. This chapter examines trends in the development of social protection programs and discusses the contribution of research to changing program approaches and social protection policies, highlighting IFPRI’s role in providing evidence and research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108