Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l'Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l'Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l'Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program's economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Business and public health impacts of a food safety rating program among pork vendors in Vietnam

Pork is the most widely consumed meat in Vietnam (OECD, 2023), where traditional food markets typically lacking refrigeration account for 84% of retail trade (USDA, 2024). Previous research by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and its partners found that over 60% of meat samples collected from such markets were contaminated with Salmonella (Ngo et al., 2023). This situation is typical of food markets in low and middle-income countries, where foodborne illness is estimated to claim 420,000 lives (Havelaar, et al., 2015) and cause a productivity loss of US$95 billion annually (Jaffee, Henson, Unnevehr, Grace, & Cassou, 2019). Adherence to basic food and hand hygiene practices among meat vendors has the potential to reduce contamination cost-effectively, but would require either market incentives or regulatory enforcement, both of which are often absent in traditional markets. Punitive approaches to enforcement of food safety standards can backfire – for example, vendors may evade regulators by moving to informal markets that lack access to even basic water infrastructure. Further, shutting down non-compliant vendors could reduce access to nutritious foods among low-income consumers.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The food sector constitutes the largest global source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable populations. This article provides an extensive review of the available evidence of the employment effects of innovations and policy interventions in agrifood systems and value chains in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review was guided by a two-part hypothesis: (1) food systems currently underperform in terms of their potential for generating decent jobs and income opportunities, and (2) this gap is only growing as expanding food markets and existing agrifood supply chain business models skew gains to the disadvantage of smallholders, agrifood small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and food sector workers.

Leveraging the role of MSMEs for healthier diets and nutrition: Insights from fruit and vegetable value chain studies across five countries

In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024).

Capacity assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Bangladesh: Exploring the capabilities of the SHiFT strategic partners

Strengthening the multidisciplinary capabilities necessary to accelerate food systems transformation has garnered increased interest over the past decade. A capabilities assessment was done with the Strategic Partners of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation in Bangladesh to understand their abilities to facilitate transformative changes towards sustainable healthy diets. Both Strategic Partners, the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) and the Bangladesh National Nutrition Council (BNNC), have long histories and well-established structures for collaboration and coordination with diverse stakeholders to realize the nutrition-focused (BNNC) and the food-related (FPMU) ambitions of the Government of Bangladesh. They are engaged in food and/or nutrition policy development, governance of the sectors, and monitoring progress at both national and sub-national levels. Using a capability assessment tool tailored to capturing food systems transformation capabilities at organizational level, the capabilities to deliver results and adapt and self-renew were the highest scored for FPMU. BNNC scored more on the capabilities to achieve coherence and to relate to support food systems transformation higher.

However, food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets emerged as relatively new concepts in both organizations. It was acknowledged that whereas the current mandates of BNNC and FPMU may address issues relevant for sustainable healthy diets, to date this still lacks adequate translation into the current policy development and planning operations and has no intentional prioritization. Both teams underscored the urgency to invest in human resources and institutional capacity strengthening as well as earmarking finances to pursue food systems transformation agendas. Becoming more articulated and explicit about what comprises food systems change, what are sustainable healthy diets and what could be monitored is crucial to support the Strategic Partners to have tangible actions to track. Moving from food system narratives to specific actions will facilitate understanding of what is, or needs to be, monitored.

Do empowerment impacts endure? The medium-term impacts of the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Gender Linkages (ANGeL) Project in Bangladesh

Whether impacts of development interventions are sustainable has attracted much recent interest (examples include Bandiera et al., 2017, Banerjee et al., 2021, Blattman et al., 2020, Carneiro et al., 2021, Grisolia, 2024, and Haushofer and Shapiro, 2018). When interventions involve trained facilitators, for example, it is of interest to know whether effects persist once these facilitators are no longer delivering the message (Ahmed et al, forthcoming). The recognition of women’s empowerment and gender equality as intrinsically important has spawned a growing literature on the impacts of development interventions on women’s empowerment (Quisumbing et al. 2023, Quisumbing et al. 2024) and attitudes towards gender roles (Alderman et al. 2025). Yet, with few exceptions (Alderman et al. 2025) there is little overlap between these two areas of work, in large part because many impact evaluations fail to follow up after the initial evaluation is completed. A synthesis of findings from a portfolio of 11 agricultural development projects in South Asia and Africa suggests that, while projects are able to affect aspects of empowerment such as decisionmaking over resources and control over income, changes in gender norms are more difficult to achieve in the two to three year time span over which impact evaluations are typically conducted(Quisumbing et al. 2024). If women’s empowerment interventions aim ultimately to change gender norms, to detect impacts, they should be measured over a sufficiently long period of time to allow for norm change.

Integrating consumer traits is key to increasing uptake of improved crop varieties: Evidence and policy insights from seed sample packs and cooking events in Uganda

 Semi-subsistence farmers in developing countries often play dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops. Consequently, decisions regarding crop selection are influenced by a com bination of household consumption needs and market-oriented considerations.
 In this policy note, we summarize findings from a field experiment suggesting that integrating con sumption-oriented traits such as taste, color, and ease of cooking alongside production advantages is crucial for driving demand for improved crop varieties.
 The field experiment consists of two interventions designed to enhance the adoption of improved maize seed varieties among smallholder farmers in eastern Uganda. The first intervention involves providing farmers with free seed sample packs to plant and directly experience the production related benefits, such as higher yield potential and drought resistance. The second intervention consists of organizing cooking demonstrations and blind tasting sessions to compare maize from improved variety with local varieties, focusing on consumption traits like palatability, texture, and ease of cooking.
 We find that the seed sample packs significantly enhance farmers' perceptions of the seed's production traits, while the cooking demonstrations improve appreciation for its consumption traits. We also find that the cooking demonstration and tasting session increased the use of fresh Bazooka seed, with some indications that this also led to higher maize productivity. On the other hand, farmers who received the sample packs are more likely to reuse/recycle the grain harvested from the sample pack as seed in the subsequent season, essentially crowding out the demand for fresh/purchased seed. We argue that this may be a rational response in the context of positive transaction costs related to the use of improved seed varieties

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Stakeholder feedback on a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

The intervention implemented evaluated through the Improving Hygiene Practices in Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya study (Ambler, et al., 2024) aimed to address poor hygiene practices in slaughterhouses, which contribute to foodborne illnesses and unsafe meat. Conducted in 140 slaughterhouses across 6 counties in Western Kenya, the intervention focused on training workers, provision of basic hygiene equipment, and the use of monetary incentives to improve compliance with recommended hygiene practices. After the intervention period, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with stakeholders including six County Directors of Veterinary Services (CDVSs), nine sub-county veterinary Officers (SCVOs), one Public Health Officer (PHO), and ten meat inspectors (MIs).

This report summarizes findings from the KIIs regarding perspectives on the intervention, sustainability, challenges with implementation, and provides a basis for recommendations on refining and scaling up or this approach.

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Formative study on slaughterhouse hygiene in Western Kenya: Summary Report

Slaughterhouses in Western Kenya face critical challenges, including inadequate hygiene practices, poor infrastructure, insufficient water supply, and weak enforcement of regulatory standards. These deficiencies contribute to meat contamination and the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, brucellosis, and anthrax, as well as foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella sp. and pathogenic E.coli. Globally, foodborne illnesses result in millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths annually, particularly among children under five. The public health and economic consequences of these risks in low and middle-income countries are significant (Havelaar et al., 2015; Jaffee et al., 2018). A qualitative study, based on interviews of key informants in the slaughter industry in Western Kenya and associated regulatory authorities, was undertaken in 2022 to document the state of slaughterhouse infrastructure and practices, explore barriers to compliance with regulatory standards, and identify practical solutions for improving conditions and enabling safer meat handling practices. This report summarizes the findings of that study and presents recommendations for interventions to improve slaughter hygiene practices.

Baseline analysis for an impact evaluation of a home-grown school feeding program in Osun State, Nigeria to support smallholder farmers

Home-Grown School Feeding Programs (HGSFPs) are becoming important policy instruments to improve food security, nutrition, education, agricultural production, and local economic growth (Adeyanju et al., 2024; Abay et al., 2021; Sitali, 2021; Takeshima et al., 2018; Fernandes et al., 2016; Karisa and Ordho, 2014; WFP, 2013). While the potential of HGFSPs to tackle undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies is well documented (Alderman, Bundy, Gelli, 2024), their role in supporting local value chains and smallholder farmers remains an area of active inquiry. Following international trends and lessons, Nigeria started delivering HGSFP which includes utilizing locally sourced foods instead of imports (Dennis et al., 2021). These programs provide school meals using locally sourced food from smallholder farmers within the same community (Sumberg & Sabates-Wheeler, 2011). In 2004, Nigeria’s National HGSFP was piloted in 12 states, covering all six geopolitical zones. However, the national government abruptly halted the program, with Osun relaunching the program in 2012 using state-level funds. Osun State is currently the only Nigerian state that implements the program—and considered one of the more successful states for implementing it. Despite stoppages of the program, lessons learned from the pilot phase offered valuable operational and policy insights for implementing the National HGSFP in 2016, with the aim of using farm produce locally grown by smallholder farmers to provide children with nutritious mid-day meals on every school day (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Enhancing women’s economic empowerment in rural Nigeria through advocacy trainings

This policy brief shares quantitative results from a project examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s economic outcomes. We share insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun) involving over 5,800 women participants from 450 communities. We causally test whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s access to and investments in livelihood opportunities. While the trainings were designed to train women in the skills needed for engaging in the local policy process in rural communities in Nigeria and to train their husbands on the benefits of women’s participation in community affairs as well as in how to practically support their wives’ participation, we posit that increased efficacy combined with advocacy skills and husbands’ support could additionally have profound economic spillovers. Indeed, we show causal improvements in these outcomes when women are trained and present some emerging policy lessons.

Assessing the gender dimensions in the true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways:
Gender-based environmental and social external costs create substantial economic inefficiencies in the agricultural sector.
The gender wage gap contributes 12.8% to total external costs.
Women's limited access to resources leads to reduced productivity, with female farmers investing 36% less in inputs than their male counterparts.
Workplace harassment, which disproportionately affects women, accounts for 10.8% of total external costs.
Unequal land management practices (women managing smaller plots) and having restricted access to improved agricultural inputs create additional inefficiencies in resource allocation and production outcomes.

Impact of a slaughterhouse hygiene intervention in western Kenya

Adherence to strict hygiene standards in slaughterhouses is critical for ensuring food safety and protecting workers from zoonotic disease. The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a study to evaluate the impact of low-cost interventions on hygiene practices in slaughterhouses in western Kenya.

Integrating surface water games into community water management toolkits: A reflection from practitioners in Odisha, India

Water is a vital resource for agricultural production, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting livelihoods of communities. However, population growth and climate change coupled with unsustainable water use and management are increasingly pushing the limits of water resources. In many parts of India, water scarcity is already posing a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods due to prolonged droughts and climate variability. Water scarcity is more pronounced in semi-arid and arid dryland regions of India, where the majority of these regions are characterized as high to extreme water stress areas. Effective management and governance of water resources is crucial to sustain productivity of dryland agricultural systems and livelihoods in these regions.

Can role models and skills training increase women’s voice in asset selection? Experimental evidence from Odisha, India

We explore the impacts of exposing women to female role models and providing skills training on outcomes related to women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets under India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—the largest public works program in the world, which solicits citizen input on which assets to build and where. While the role model treatment exposes women to a video with stories of female role models from neighboring districts who successfully demanded assets, the skills training shows women how to identify individual and group needs for assets, frame their demands, and articulate them to public functionaries. In a randomized controlled trial spanning 94 villages and involving approximately 2,600 women, we find that exposure to role models alone has limited impacts, but when combined with skills training, there are strong positive impacts on women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets. This reveals that even a light-touch training can significantly benefit women’s voice and agency in village decision-making.

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Leveraging public works for sustainable and resilient livelihoods: Four case studies from India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

Despite significant improvements in poverty and standard of living over the last two decades, India continues to face challenges, including slow improvements in health and nutrition indicators and in aspects of women’s empowerment and in generating opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, climate-related events are increasing in frequency with associated risks. Women and other marginalized populations are often at greater risk from these events due to their relatively lower access to resources, lower mobility and greater dependence on common property resources. Social protection can be an effective instrument to promote resilience. One such large social protection program with significant potential is India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, or the MGNREGA, one of the largest public works programs in the world.

This report provides insights from four case studies linked to the MGNREGA and implemented under the Indo-German Enhancing Rural Resilience through Appropriate Development Actions, or ERADA project. ERADA was implemented in 8 blocks of 4 large Indian states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The ERADA project had three broad objectives - of enhancing natural capital, green recovery through green enterprises, and convergence of resources and networks - and identified the MGNREGA as a critical social safety net on which to base its activities. While much has been written on the impact of the MGNREGA on “first-order” outcomes such as wages, employment, rural-urban distress migration and other household welfare outcomes, we know considerably less about the use of the assets created under the program, and even less about the potential of these assets to support and sustain value chain activities.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation

The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Nature-Positive Solutions Initiative survey report: Colombia

This study is part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions for shifting agrifood systems to more resilient and sustainable pathways" (NATURE+), which aims to promote sustainable agricultural productivity through nature-positive solutions (NPS) by addressing three critical challenges:

Land Degradation: Industrial agriculture, while ensuring large-scale food production, has caused severe environmental harm, including 80% of global deforestation, threats to 86% of endangered species, significant biodiversity loss, and up to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It also depletes water and soil health, reducing crop resilience and lowering farming incomes and nutrition outcomes. To mitigate these impacts, a shift toward resilient farming systems that support smallholder farmers and enhance agriculture's role as a positive force for nature is essential.

Limited Evidence and Knowledge to Support NPS: Awareness of the environmental costs of industrial agriculture has highlighted the need for sustainable farming practices, especially after the 2021 UN Food System Summit and the COVID-19 pandemic. NPS has significant potential, including creating 395 million jobs by 2030 (as per the 2020 World Economic Forum). However, gaps in evidence and tools for decision-making hinder scaling efforts. Research in biodiversity, soil health, and waste management is crucial to develop scalable innovations and support agricultural research for community development.

Lack of Business Models for Public-Private Partnerships: The private sector plays a vital role in scaling impact oriented solutions, requiring supportive policies and incentives to encourage investments in sustainable pathways. Developing business models that combine scientific innovation with ecological, social, and livelihood benefits is necessary to foster collaboration and drive smallholder farming toward nature-positive practices.

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics.

Prioritizing agri-food system investments under climatic and world price risks

With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Targeting in development projects in Egypt: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned

Effective targeting strategies are vital for almost all development programs. Universal approaches which provide aid to all individuals regardless of need are not always feasible given limited budgets and varying development priorities. Conversely, targeting directs resources to those in greatest need, ensures efficient allocation while upholding principles of social justice, equality, and the right to assistance.

This policy note summarizes the outcomes of a workshop held in Cairo on October 20, 2023, which brought together researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers. The high-level dialogue was part of the “Bridging Evidence and Policy” (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD). The BEP series serves as a platform for knowledge exchange and collaborative learning among donors, local and international implementers, and government representatives, with a focus on improving targeting in development projects. This note highlights the key discussions, offering insights into best practices and recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of program targeting.

Why do multistakeholder processes emerge and flourish? Identifying and operationalizing the leading hypotheses

The literature on Multistakeholder Processes (MSPs) includes several studies that seek to specify the conditions under which MSPs perform well and deliver tangible governance improvements that would otherwise not happen. This is important research as MSPs are gaining popularity as an alternative to more traditional governance strategies, such as centralized, government-led activities. MSPs are often proposed in institutional settings where formal governance institutions are perceived to be ineffective or inequitable. In principle, studies that explain variation in MSP outcomes have the potential to inform MSP organizers and their decisions about how to organize their future MSPs in ways that save resources and improve outcomes. However, the existing MSP research programs demonstrate at least three limitations: First, the literature is characterized by the production of long lists of potential determinants of MSP performance, which makes it challenging for researchers to offer practical advice as to which of these factors is most important for MSP organizers to address first, and under which contextual conditions. Second, there is little agreement among scholars about what the core elements of a well-functioning MSP are, which elements affect mostly the emergence vis-à-vis effectiveness, and it is rare that studies specify which conditions or factors are essential and which may be helpful but not critical ingredients of success. Third, there is a dearth of theory-driven research that uses causal inference methods to test the theoretical propositions, which means that it is difficult to assess the quality of evidence in literature’s existing, mostly descriptive analyses. To advance knowledge about the emergence and flourishing of MSPs, and move beyond the production of long lists of associative success factors, there is an urgent need for researchers to come together in a community of practice to address the noted shortcomings. The Community of Practice will also promote the development of new and innovative ways of conducting MSP work, which will enable researchers to improve outcomes in terms of both cost-effectiveness and equity. In this paper, we review and synthesize the leading hypotheses on MSP emergence and effectiveness, develop a theoretical framework that captures the leading hypotheses, and discuss the viability of employing causal inference methods to test new hypotheses related to the emergence and flourishing of MSPs. We conclude by outlining the contours of a community of practice and how it can help advance MSP scholarship.

Cointegration analysis of sesame prices in Ethiopian commodity exchange warehouses

This study examines the cointegration of sesame market prices in eight Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) warehouses and its implications for improving the functioning of sesame markets. We analyzed 489 weekly market price data points for each of the eight ECX warehouses, covering the period from end of 2014 to mid-2024. We estimate the Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short- and long-term spatial price adjustments across warehouses. Of the eight warehouses, six showed significant spatial integration. The VECM results showed effective price transmission and strong short- and longterm market relationships. Short-term dynamics particularly revealed complex interactions. These findings highlight the varying impacts of price fluctuations between warehouses and the need to understand these interactions for better strategic decision making, resource allocation, and pricing strategy refinement. Furthermore, accelerating the speed of price pass through is vital to improve the livelihoods of sesame farmers in Ethiopia.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

Advancing climate-smart financial solutions for smallholder farmers: Lessons from the CGIAR Climate Resilience Initiative

Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries face climate-related risks that increase their income volatility and compromise their well-being. The CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) has developed and implemented a suite of innovative instruments aimed at transforming the climate adaptation capacity of smallholder farmers. This brief examines the potential of these bundled financial solutions in enhancing smallholder farmers' resilience to climate risks and documents ClimBeR's experience in implementing and scaling these instruments.

Migration and women’s voice and agency in Senegal: Introducing a new survey

Millions of poor households around the world rely on migration to improve their economic circumstances and, increasingly, for resilience in the face of a changing climate. In vulnerable contexts, slow-onset climate impacts like water scarcity, rising temperatures, and more variable weather conditions are diminishing local economic opportunities and increasing food insecurity. Such climate impacts are projected to accelerate migration patterns, particularly out-migration from rural areas (Rigaud et al., 2018; SVR, 2023). While news reports on climate migration often emphasize communities leaving an area en masse due to a natural disaster, climate migration due to slow-onset climate shifts, which gradually lower crop yields and hinder agricultural livelihoods, more commonly implies a male household member migrating within a country, often seasonally, in order to send remittances back to his family.

Consumer response to food safety risk information

Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Impact of farm size on the function of landscape-level payments for ecosystem services: An agent-based model study

Reducing pesticide use and restoring biodiversity are among the most pressing environmental challenges. Enhancing natural pest control ecosystem services through the integration of non-crop habitats (NCH) offers promising potential, creating a positive feedback loop by harnessing insect biodiversity to reduce pesticide reliance. Policy support is needed at the landscape level to encourage adoption of this currently underutilized approach, which depends on spatial coordination and collective behavioral change. Farm size, which critically influences farmers' agrochemical inputs, agroecological practices, and interactions with neighboring farms, varies across agricultural landscapes. It is unclear what role farm size plays in landscape-scale agri-environmental incentive programs, which have recently seen growing attention in scientific research and policy implementation. We employ framed field games and agent-based modeling as complementary research tools, exploring how farm size impacts the function of landscape-scale NCH subsidies aimed at encouraging coordinated provision and sharing of natural pest control services to reduce pesticide use. Our model simulation shows that, in landscapes of larger average farm size or lower farm size heterogeneity, NCH subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing pesticide use and increasing NCH efficiency in providing joint production benefits. Our results imply that landscape-scale payments for natural pest control ecosystem services face fewer obstacles as incentive-based mechanisms in landscapes of larger, more homogeneous farms, supporting the implementation of landscape-scale initiatives in such areas to effectively enhance ecosystem services. Our findings contribute to the growing discussion around landscape-level financial incentive programs that depend on spatial coordination, highlighting the importance of farmers’ land holding size.

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

Program pathways for sustainable, nutrition sensitive school meals: An updated framework

Global burden of disease analyses estimate that 20% of deaths are due to unhealthy diets (Afshin et al., 2019). Micronutrient deficiencies impair children’s physical and mental development (Bailey et al., 2015). The prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents increased from less than 1% in 1975 to 6% for girls and 8% for boys in 2016 (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), 2017). The modernization of food systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has led to rapid shifts to unhealthy diets and reductions in physical activity that have contributed to the global increase in rates of overweight and obesity (Popkin et al., 2020). Moreover, current dietary and population trends will exacerbate risks to people and the planet (Willett et al., 2019). Attention to nutrition during all stages of child and adolescent development is necessary to ensure that children can thrive over the 8,000-day period spanning infancy to adulthood, and to protect investments made earlier in the life cycle (Black et al., 2013). School feeding programs, or school meals, is a widely implemented intervention with documented impacts across social protection, education, health and nutrition (Alderman et al., 2024). Globally, programs reach about 368 million children for a total investment of about $70 billion a year (World Food Programme, 2020).

Would you rather? Household choice between cash transfers or an economic inclusion program

We study households’ choice between continued cash transfers and a new economic inclusion program—two global prevalent social protection programs—offered by the Egyptian government. Lower-than-expected early adoption of the new program is correlated with differing perceptions on its design. We randomize official messaging to households describing the new program’s (i) consumption support duration and (ii) income-earning potential. Both treatments increase respondents’ likelihood of recommending the new program. A theoretical model estimated using households’ perceptions of program design predicts interest in the new program, and how it diminishes with increasing effort costs, asset loss probability, risk aversion and loss aversion.

Tajikistan’s agrifood sector review

This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector.

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Food avoidance among breastfeeding mothers in Myanmar and its impacts on maternal dietary quality

Key Findings
• This study designed and analyzed two new surveys in Myanmar. The first one is the fifth Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) round conducted from April to June 2023, in which 12,953 respondents were surveyed, including 5,512 women of reproductive age (15-49). The second is the Rural Urban Food Security Survey conducted in 2020, in which respondents were women who were pregnant in round 1 (June-July 2020) in Yangon and participated in at least five of those six rounds.
• Forty percent of all Myanmar women aged 15-49 believe that breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one healthy food, with vegetables the most widely cited food to be avoided, followed by fruits, fish, meat and beans/nuts.
• Beliefs were prevalent throughout Myanmar’s diverse regions and across both genders, but more common in majority Buddhist regions (and less common in majority Christian regions).
• Beliefs in food avoidance during breastfeeding were less prevalent among women with more formal education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers.
• Mothers in the Yangon panel saw minimum dietary diversity of women (MDD-W) fall by 46 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, stemming from significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups.
• MDD-W recovered somewhat over the second to fifth months after birth but was still significantly lower up to the sixth month after birth.

Drivers of agrifood system transformation in Odisha

Globally, agrifood systems (AFS) are experiencing rapid transformation driven by a range of factors. This transformation process is also observed across several states of India, including Odisha. This study develops a conceptual framework to examine the key drivers of AFS transformation in Odisha. Analytical tools, including trend analysis, the Simpson Index, and the Just-Pope Yield function, were used to assess the impact of various determinants of changes in the state’s AFS. The report presents an analysis and breakdown of growth trends in the agrifood system over the last two decades, identifies constraints and opportunities for future growth, and evaluates the coherence of government agricultural policies, offering direction for future policies to manage and motivate AFS transformation in Odisha. Odisha’s AFS is characterized by diverse stakeholders, with smallholder farmers facing significant challenges, particularly from climate-induced shocks and the volatility in agricultural gross value added (GVA). Among farming households, wage income now surpasses earnings from traditional agricultural activities, such as crop cultivation and livestock production. Several demographic and economic factors, including population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes, have profoundly influenced the structure and operations of the AFS, as evidenced by increasing demand for higher-value food products, including processed foods. The adoption of innovative technologies, such as Bt cotton and climate-resilient crop varieties, has enhanced farm productivity and profitability, driving crop diversification. Increased use of purchased farm inputs, such as high-yielding variety seeds, inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery, has further shaped Odisha’s agrifood landscape. Government policies, including higher annual budget allocations for irrigation infrastructure, climate-resilient technologies, subsidized credit and insurance, and farmer welfare programs, have been instrumental in shaping Odisha’s AFS. However, despite strong growth, the fisheries sector remains underfunded compared to other subsectors. Improved rural infrastructure—such as expanded road and irrigation networks, grain and cold storage facilities, mobile connectivity, and improved market access—has contributed positively to AFS transformation in the state. Additionally, rural organizations, including farmer producer organizations (FPO), self-help groups (SHG), Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) and agricultural extension centers, have played a crucial role in advancing the state agricultural initiatives, such as Shree Anna Abhiyan, the special programme for promotion of millets in tribal areas of Odisha. The increasing number of hotels and restaurants, coupled with rising investments in the agrifood industry, underscores the expanding role of the agro-processing sector in Odisha’s economy. To revitalize rural economies, efforts should focus on boosting rural non-farm sectors, enhancing farm productivity, and strengthening infrastructure, particularly logistics and cold chain facilities. Investments in agrifood processing, promoting digital marketing, and fostering climate-resilient technologies are also important. Small farmers need support through strengthened FPOs, better access to quality seeds and mechanization, especially women farmers. Policies should be modified to promote increased crop and enterprise diversification, fishery sector growth, and organic farming. Agrifood parks and research in processing technologies can increase value addition and promote entrepreneurship within the AFS. Finally, solar energy integration will ensure sustainability and economic growth across agrifood value chains.

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds.
SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Three: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Round 3 provides nationally and sub-nationally representative data on agricultural performance, integrating insights from 4,892 farming households. Conducted between January and March 2023, this survey leverages phone-based data collection to address logistical challenges posed by Myanmar's remote and conflict-affected regions. MAPS modules encompass critical agricultural indicators, including crop production, marketing, input usage, farm assets, and services. The survey design integrates rigorous sampling and weighting strategies to ensure representation across demographic and geographical strata. Findings highlight variations in agricultural practices between seasons and years, alongside challenges in household retention due to conflict and infrastructure limitations. Despite attrition and inherent limitations of phone surveys, MAPS successfully enumerated 271 out of 324 townships, contributing vital data for understanding agricultural dynamics in Myanmar.

Value chain mapping and analysis of Mahua Flowers and Seeds in Mandla, Madhya Pradesh

In Mandla district of Madhya Pradesh, a state located in Central India, tribal communities collect fruits, flowers, gums and other materials from the forest for self-consumption and sale. These so-called non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are important for income, food security and livelihood. Additionally, the income from these products creates an incentive for the protection of the forest, making it an important asset from an ecological perspective. However, overall forest degradation, unsustainable harvesting and alternative income sources have led to decreased NTFP collection and trade. The term NTFP encompasses a wide variety of products including fruits, nuts, seeds, resins, gums, medicinal plants, mushrooms, honey, fibers, and other plant and animal products. Although many of these can be found in the forests of Madhya Pradesh, only a few products and species have sizeable economic activity. The two most important of these products are the flower of the mahua tree (Madhuca longifolia) and the leaves of the tendu tree (Diospyros melanoxylon). While the former is mainly used in the production of local liquor, the latter is used by the tobacco industry as wrapping for traditional cigarettes called bidis. The collection and trade of NTFPs was regulated under the colonial rule of the British and this continued independence. Starting from the 1990s attempts were made to shift rights and power towards the forest dwellers and away from the authorities. The implementation of these reforms (e.g. PESA and FRA) has been particularly slow and scattered in Madhya Pradesh, where the Forest Department remains virtually in charge of the forests. However, the trade of most NTFPs (except some like tendu) has been liberalized. In recent times public authorities have even gained interest in NTFPs as an avenue to lift tribal communities out of poverty. In this report we study NTFP trade and production in Mandla, discussing the value chain analysis (VCA) of mahua flowers, followed by an analysis of alternative value chain linkages to diversify the use and income potential from mahua. The goal of this analysis is to identify the potential for agro-ecological improvements

Food system financing vulnerability index

Food systems are integral to ensuring access to sustainable healthy diets for all, thereby supporting public health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. However, these systems are increasingly vulnerable to a range of shocks and stressors, from economic downturns and financial constraints to the impacts of cli mate change and pandemics. One of the most critical determinants of food system resilience is the ability to effectively manage financing vulnerabilities. Financing vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of food system components to performance degradation due to inadequate, inefficient, or uneven allocation of financial re sources. Addressing this issue is paramount for enhancing the system’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions while maintaining functionality.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Scaling up experiential learning for water management

Unsustainable water management is associated with reduced agricultural production and poverty, reduced ecosystem services and resilience, and insufficient and unreliable domestic water access. As a common pool resource with high subtractability and low excludability, water is easily depleted if no effective coordination exists among users to ensure provision and regulate withdrawals. This creates one of the greatest challenges for people living in semi-arid and arid environments. The majority of India’s population is estimated to face physical water scarcity for at least part of the year, with 600 million people living in areas of high to extreme water stress. As water management is highly complex, with many users sharing the same resource but often unknown to each other, stopping overuse is difficult, especially when it is more profitable to irrigate water-consumptive crops than water-conserving crops.

Farmers, policymakers, donors, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in India have all articulated the need for more effective tools to improve water management and governance. Coordination and effective management of water resources are crucial to sustain agricultural productivity, but so far progress has been disappointing. Technical tools such as crop water budgeting can play an important role in enabling communities to manage their water resources, but unless communities have the knowledge and motivation to use these tools, their application and impacts are limited. To date, attention to the question of how knowledge about collectively available water is translated into effective management through collective action, norms and rules has been insufficient. Blueprint rules introduced in a top-down manner have not changed water users’ behavior. However, there is strong evidence that effective community rules and their enforcement can motivate such behavior. The better these rules fit the social-ecological context and internalized norms, the more effective they will be. Participatory development approaches have addressed these challenges. The key question is how to promote such coordination, rules, and behavior in a participatory way without external imposition and in a low-cost manner that allows largescale implementation.

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

As floods increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, anticipatory action (AA) programs offer a promising approach to mitigate their impacts. However, there is limited research about how AA programming can address the specific needs of women, who often face heightened vulnerabilities during disasters. This paper applies the Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform (RBET) framework to examine gender dynamics in AA programming through case studies in Nepal and Nigeria—two flood-prone countries where AA initiatives have been piloted. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, local advocacy groups, and direct beneficiaries of flood programs, we assess barriers and enabling conditions for AA to reach, benefit, and empower women and broader opportunities for transformation of gender norms and social inequalities. Our findings reveal key implementation challenges, including limited funding, weak integration with broader disaster risk reduction efforts, and inadequate early warning systems. However, we also identify practical strategies for improving AA’s gender responsiveness, such as relying on individual rather than household-level data, providing accessible early warning information, offering aid modalities that meet women’s specific needs (such as dignity kits), ensuring women’s participation in community decision-making, and facilitating ongoing inclusive household and community dialogues in flood-prone communities rather than only responding to specific flood warnings. The paper concludes with recommendations for scaling up gender-inclusive AA programming to enhance resilience and reduce the disproportionate impacts of flooding on women.

Improving crop type mapping by integrating LSTM with temporal random masking and pixel-set spatial information

Market diversification to increase the demand for and value of Bangladeshi shrimp

In a rapidly growing global shrimp industry, Bangladesh’s shrimp sector faces fierce competition from much larger producers such as Ecuador, India, and Vietnam. One of Bangladesh’s challenges is that it is overdependent on Europe's fragmented hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) segment and ethnic retail markets, where it exports 88 percent of its output. This market is highly price-driven and limited in size. However, Bangladesh’s exporters have no or only limited access to retail markets in the European Union (EU), the United States (US), or other markets that source black tiger shrimp due to a lack of high-quality products, a lack of Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) and Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP) certification, negative market perception of the country’s shrimp, and a lack of promotional activities. As a result of the increased competition and restricted market access, Bangladesh’s exporters and farmers are experiencing spiraling prices, and their future activities are at risk. Diversifying its markets should help the industry increase demand and get better prices for the products it exports. This brief explores the current market position of Bangladeshi shrimp and what the country can do to diversify its markets. Promotion is key, but not to consumers. Business-to-business (B2B) shrimp buyers worldwide must view Bangladesh as a reliable source of competitive, high-quality, sustainable shrimp.

Defining and measuring policy coherence for food system transformation: A scoping review

Changes in food systems—across multiple sectors and through all levels of government—are essential for meeting many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other global environmental and health targets. Steering food systems towards common outcomes and ensuring that actions in one area do not undermine progress in another requires policy coherence. This scoping review examines how policy coherence has been broadly defined and measured in areas related to food system transformation to inform conceptualization, definition, and measurement specific to food systems transformation and provide insights for policy and program implementation. We reviewed literature published from January 2000 to December 2022 and identified 47 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Results show that common features of definitions of policy coherence relevant for food systems are: an emphasis on minimizing tradeoffs and maximizing synergies; policy integration within different areas of government and food systems or across scales (horizontal or vertical coherence); alignment of objectives, interventions, and indicators within a given policy area; and complementarity and consistency of actions and goals within or across sectors of food systems. Measurement methods to date are mainly limited to qualitative policy document review and participatory assessment, with no examples of application at scale. This paper provides a first step towards a definition and measurement approach for policy coherence that can fill this important data gap in monitoring the governance of food systems transformation and synthesizes evidence to guide actions towards greater policy coherence in governing national food systems.

Youth in agriculture: A PhotoVoice perspective to envision their engagement in agricultural practices

This report examines youth engagement in agriculture, focusing on agroecology in Mandla district, Madhya Pradesh. Despite agriculture's critical role in livelihoods, rural youth show declining interest due to perceptions of low profitability, high risks, and systemic barriers like limited land ownership and inadequate institutional support. Using the PhotoVoice methodology, the study captures youth aspirations, challenges, and perceptions of sustainable farming practices.
Findings indicate that while young women and men value agroecology's benefits—improved soil health, sustainability, and income—they face significant hurdles, including resource scarcity, water shortages, and financial constraints. Many envision "dream farms" with modern equipment and sustainable practices but lack the infrastructure and support to realize these goals. Youth also report limited agency in decision-making and minimal participation in collectives, further alienating them from the sector.
To address these challenges, the report calls for creating collectives for young women and men for collaboration, enhancing capacity-building programs, and integrating agroecology into education and policy frameworks. Strengthening institutional support, providing financial and technical assistance, and leveraging NGO partnerships are recommended to bridge gaps and empower youth as leaders in agroecological transitions. These actions are essential for fostering a resilient and sustainable agricultural future driven by young farmers.

Building resilience through integrated assistance: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Despite growing investment in resilience-building programs in conflict zones, limited empirical evidence exists on the effectiveness of integrated interventions in such contexts. This study examines the impact of a comprehensive resilience-building program in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo (2017-2019), focusing on community infrastructure, farmer associations, and land access. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences analysis of primary panel data from 1,643 households, our research reveals that integrated interventions significantly improved households' resilience capacity, primarily through enhanced market access and strengthened collective marketing systems. The program yielded a statistically significant positive impact on beneficiaries' access to land and participation in community associations, though impacts on agricultural production and food security were limited. These findings highlight the importance of context-specific, multifaceted approaches in enhancing resilience in areas facing protracted crises, particularly emphasizing market access and social cohesion. Our results provide valuable empirical evidence for policymakers and development practitioners, suggesting that resilience-building in conflict zones requires sustained, locally-adapted interventions that prioritize market linkages and community networks alongside traditional agricultural support.

JEL Classification Codes: C01, C23, D04

A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1,704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations.

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity.

Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers.

Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications.

Catalyzing financial inclusion: Using incentives to promote mobile money use in Ethiopia

Mobile money can be a vehicle for improving financial access, particularly among disadvantaged populations. For mobile money systems to play this role, though, members of disadvantaged groups must both enroll in and begin to use mobile money systems. In this paper, we describe a randomized trial conducted in collaboration with a bank in Somali region, Ethiopia, that attempted to stimulate use among recent mobile money enrollees in areas near refugee camps. We provide one group with a small transfer to their mobile money account and another group is told they will receive a small transfer if they first make three transactions of any type within a promotional period. The unconditional transfer induces a 9.3 percentage point increase in customers making at least one transaction, while the conditional transfer has no significant effect. The effect is larger among men, but there is evidence that it also induces use among
women.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar 2021-24: Findings from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using seven rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to July 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2021-24. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in April-July 2024. Hunger was highest in Chin (14.4 percent), as well as Rakhine (8.0 percent) and Kayah (5.2 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 17.7 percent in April-June 2023 and remains high at 13.5 percent in April-July 2024. The shares in April-July 2024 were highest in Kayah (52.3 percent), Chin (33.9 percent), and Shan (21.1 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 25 percent over December 2021-February 2022 to April-July 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to April-July 2024 (6.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 2.4 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of nuts and seeds and milk/dairy products. 29.5 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 20.9 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages
-Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children.
-Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls.
-Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time.
-The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet.
-Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases,
such as those in urban areas.
-Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle
changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity.
-Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa.
-Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health.
-National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas.
-There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Sri Lanka

Key Messages
Child stunting has declined in both rural and urban areas since 2016, but still affects a third of children on estates.
Wasting prevalence has increased dramatically since 2016, reaching an alarming prevalence of 20 percent in urban areas.
There is insufficient intake of nutritious foods, particularly in rural areas, and diet quality is negatively influenced by obesogenic food environments as the urbanization process continues.
The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.58 to $4.77 per person per day from 2017 to 2022, and 41 percent of the population is unable to afford a healthy diet.
The prevalence of overweight, obesity and noncommunicable diseases is increasing nationally with higher burdens of overweight and obesity in urban populations and among women.
National nutrition policies reference urban areas but do not adequately address the dual challenges of undernutrition (such as wasting) and overnutrition (such as overweight, obesity, and NCDs) common to urban contexts.
Evidence is lacking on how to effectively address the double burden of malnutrition, yet clearly double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition will be essential.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today.

"The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.