Bangladesh Agricultural Policy Activity

Understanding women’s time use in farming communities: Insights from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Agricultural programs targeting women may increase women’s work burdens and shift the distribution of work between productive and reproductive tasks. Complementary information on women’s sense of control over their time highlights additional benefits of agricultural programs beyond changes in women’s workloads. Despite program interventions, gender norms often persist, affecting how communities perceive work intensity and division of responsibilities between men and women. The relationship between women’s time use and nutrition is complex and interacts with mediating factors, requiring a multifaceted approach to program design and evaluation. Evidence linking time use data to nonfarm work is lacking, highlighting the need to leverage WEAI time use data to fill this critical gap.

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia

The Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) region, characterized by smallholder-dominated farming, is experiencing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes. To enhance resilience, income stability, and food security, smallholders are increasingly diversifying their livelihoods away from traditional agriculture. However, the patterns and drivers of this diversification remain poorly understood. This study, utilizing data from the Rupantar project, aims to elucidate these patterns, identify key drivers, and assess the impacts on productivity, profitability, nutrition, and inclusion. A mixed-methods approach was employed, including a baseline survey of 1,400 households across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and analysis using the Simpson's Index of Diversity (SID). Fractional regression models revealed moderate diversification levels across the EGP with significant geographical and contextual variability. Key drivers included access to resources, gender, education, market access, and institutional support, with differences observed across countries and diversification types. Factors such as non-ownership of irrigation pumps, female household headship, and engagement in off-farm activities were significant predictors of higher diversification. The study found that diversification can enhance income security, nutritional outcomes, and environmental sustainability, although impacts vary by diversification type.

Gender integration in food-system policies: an adapted policy assessment framework

Food systems are complex and include multifaceted processes in food production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption and post-consumption disposal of food products. Ensuring gender equality within food systems is important because they connect various domains, such as health and nutrition, climate change, environment, fisheries, livestock and agriculture. This interconnectedness within food systems leads to significant implications for human health, including nutrition and diets, as well as climate and environment-related indicators. Interactions of gender within these domains complicate the equitable derivation and distribution of benefits from agricultural activities by women and men. Therefore, policies governing food systems in low- and middle-income countries need to integrate gender-responsive approaches into their design, implementation and monitoring, recognizing the multifaceted processes of food systems and how gender interacts with these processes. The existing tools and frameworks that assess gender integration within policies about food systems do not extend beyond the scope of agricultural production into other interacting domains. This working paper addresses this gap by developing an enhanced framework for evaluating gender integration in policy documents within and beyond agriculture. The thematic reach of this framework includes agriculture, livestock, fisheries, climate change, health and nutrition, environment, and natural resource management. By leveraging a gender and food-systems framework that deconstructs food-systems functions, and how they impact women and men differently, the framework offers structured guidance for incorporating gender-related considerations within policy documents relating to food systems. The framework also has implications for participatory policy processes—design, implementation and monitoring—that aim to foster gender-equitable benefits from food-systems interventions.

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India's economy continues to grow.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest March 2025

In this fifth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present a diverse body of global, regional, and country-level evidence that, collectively, enhances our understanding of the multifaceted nature of malnutrition, spanning a broad spectrum of outcomes, determinants, and policy responses.

Among the global and regional articles featured, these focus on key challenges and advancements in nutrition, gender, and health equity. Topics include gender-transformative interventions for adolescents, progress toward global nutrition targets, the links between adolescent pregnancy and anemia, optimal iron supplementation strategies, the applicability of a single child growth standard, and the need for a paradigm shift in anemia assessment. Additionally, discussions highlight shifting power dynamics in global health, inequalities in food environment research, the continuum of child development from conception to early life, and defining healthy diets through a joint FAO-WHO perspective.

Other studies of interest include the latest research on maternal and child healthcare trends and inequality, anemia and micronutrient deficiencies, and malnutrition in children and adolescents, with a focus on Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. These studies examine determinants ranging such as marriage, education, and women’s empowerment to maternal and child health outcomes. They also explore the intersection of women's work and child nutrition before expanding to broader dietary behaviors and the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, providing a comprehensive view of key nutrition and health challenges.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

Happy reading!

Trends and associated factors of animal source foods consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh: Evidence from four consecutive national surveys

Animal source foods (ASF) are nutrient-dense and essential for the growth and development of children. The Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2022 reported that approximately two-thirds of children aged 6–23 months consumed eggs/flesh foods. However, overall consumption patterns, trends, and factors influencing ASF intake among children in Bangladesh were not well-documented. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the trends and associated factors of ASF consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh. A total of 9401 children were extracted from four consecutive BDHS (2011, 2014, 2017/18, and 2022). The Cochran-Armitage test was conducted to assess the trends in ASF consumption, while a two-stage multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was performed to identify the associated factors. The consumption of ASF significantly increased to 79.1% in 2017/18 from 67% in 2011 but decreased to 73.3% in 2022. ASF consumption was found to be higher among children whose mothers were educated (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.30–1.98), employed in either agricultural (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04–1.54) or non-agricultural (AOR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07–1.72) activities, pregnant (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.66–3.87), had received ANC 1–3 times (AOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.20–1.72) or ≥4 times (AOR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.29–1.95), and was exposed to media (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04–1.39). Furthermore, consumption increased with increasing the age of children, and the wealth of their families. However, children who experienced illness were less likely to consume ASF (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86). The recent declines in ASF consumption emphasize the need for targeted interventions to increase ASF consumption among children in Bangladesh.

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

Key Messages
 The PNG 2023 Rural Household Survey collected detailed consumption and expenditure data, which allows the first cost of basic needs poverty assessment since the 2009/10 Household Income Expenditure Survey. However, it is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative.
 43% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the standard cost of basic needs poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to acquire calorie adequate diets while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 64% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the healthy diet poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to meet healthy dietary guidelines while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 The healthy diet poverty line incorporates a higher share of nutrient dense food groups (vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, etc.) and thus is about 1/3 more costly than the standard poverty line.
 On average, households within the survey sample over-consume staples and fats compared to healthy guidelines and under-consume vegetables, fruits, animal source foods, and nuts/pulses.
 Smaller households and households with greater production assets (land and labor), education completion, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Among households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e., cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) only cocoa farming households have significantly higher consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Targeted safety net and community asset building programs could reduce rural poverty by increasing agriculture productivity, supporting rural-urban market linkages, improving demand for rural goods, and incentivizing off-farm employment.
 Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households and facilitating access to primary education could improve rural incomes in the short and long term, respectively.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets.

Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets.

The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes.

The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment.

Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

Promoting adoption of sustainable land management technologies by women and couples in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized trial

Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The food sector constitutes the largest global source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable populations. This article provides an extensive review of the available evidence of the employment effects of innovations and policy interventions in agrifood systems and value chains in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review was guided by a two-part hypothesis: (1) food systems currently underperform in terms of their potential for generating decent jobs and income opportunities, and (2) this gap is only growing as expanding food markets and existing agrifood supply chain business models skew gains to the disadvantage of smallholders, agrifood small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and food sector workers.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Capacity strengthening as a pathway to drive food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets: Reflections from the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT)

Food systems are failing to provide sustainable, healthy diets that promote health, environmental sustainability, affordability, and cultural acceptability, leaving over three billion people unable to access such diets. Following calls for transformation after the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and subsequent international dialogues, there is growing recognition of the need for systemic approaches to accelerate food systems transformation (FST). However, many stakeholders remain uncertain about how to implement effective changes, highlighting the need for sustainable development pathways that integrate health, environmental, and inclusion goals. This paper explores what capacities are needed for driving FST, emphasizing the need to strengthen skills and competencies in individuals, organizations, and societies to achieve transformative goals.

Based on the capacity-strengthening experiences of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Vietnam, the paper examines SHiFT’s capacity-strengthening practice used. Key questions addressed include identifying stakeholders who need transformative capacities, the capacities required for different roles, and strategies to inspire meaningful implementation.

The reflections on capacity-strengthening trajectories for food system actors in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Vietnam underscore the need for tailored, inclusive, and adaptive approaches that address the unique dynamics of each food system. Seven guiding principles emerged: contextualizing within political and economic landscapes; employing adult-based, experiential learning; timing of capacity strengthening interventions; navigating power dynamics; embracing emergence and flexibility; fostering diversity; and stimulating personal agency and leadership. These principles highlight the importance of co-creation, continuous reflection, and iterative adaptation, ensuring capacity-building efforts are relevant, effective, and transformative. By exploring practice-based and case-based insights, this paper contributes to understanding how targeted capacity strengthening can support meaningfully to FST.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Key stakeholders, platforms, and networks in Bangladesh’s food systems transformation process, 2022–2024

In 2022, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) conducted a stakeholder identification and analysis activity to develop its strategy for stakeholder engagement. As part of SHiFT’s Work Package 5, Catalyzing Food Systems Transformation, this analysis was used to prepare a stakeholder engagement strategy for Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Viet Nam, SHiFT’s three countries of work. The stakeholder identification and mapping, as well as a report on the country’s food system transformation process and issues, constitute a database that enables rapid selection of potential stakeholders for engagement, capacity sharing, and collaboration, among other purposes. The stakeholder identification process is repeated, typically on a quarterly basis, to update the database.
This summary report is based on information first collected in 2022 and updated as of December 2024. Building understanding, engagement, and capacity with diverse food system stakeholders will help to foster collaboration and coordination across varied perspectives, and to drive transformative actions across the food system for positive outcomes on the environment, food security and nutrition, and livelihoods and inclusion.
SHiFT’s approach is to engage with and provide technical support to relevant stakeholders, networks, and platforms whose objectives are aligned with the Initiative’s goals. This approach aims to contribute to local and national food systems transformation for sustainable healthy diets, rather than facilitating the formation of new networks or platforms that would require more time to build engagement and capacity, and might not be sustainable. The Initiative’s efforts are also meant to avoid overlapping with those of the country’s government and other development partners. Instead, SHiFT aims to create synergies through coordinated actions to achieve national food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets, as well as broader national goals on food systems.

Capacity assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Bangladesh: Exploring the capabilities of the SHiFT strategic partners

Strengthening the multidisciplinary capabilities necessary to accelerate food systems transformation has garnered increased interest over the past decade. A capabilities assessment was done with the Strategic Partners of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation in Bangladesh to understand their abilities to facilitate transformative changes towards sustainable healthy diets. Both Strategic Partners, the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) and the Bangladesh National Nutrition Council (BNNC), have long histories and well-established structures for collaboration and coordination with diverse stakeholders to realize the nutrition-focused (BNNC) and the food-related (FPMU) ambitions of the Government of Bangladesh. They are engaged in food and/or nutrition policy development, governance of the sectors, and monitoring progress at both national and sub-national levels. Using a capability assessment tool tailored to capturing food systems transformation capabilities at organizational level, the capabilities to deliver results and adapt and self-renew were the highest scored for FPMU. BNNC scored more on the capabilities to achieve coherence and to relate to support food systems transformation higher.

However, food systems transformation and sustainable healthy diets emerged as relatively new concepts in both organizations. It was acknowledged that whereas the current mandates of BNNC and FPMU may address issues relevant for sustainable healthy diets, to date this still lacks adequate translation into the current policy development and planning operations and has no intentional prioritization. Both teams underscored the urgency to invest in human resources and institutional capacity strengthening as well as earmarking finances to pursue food systems transformation agendas. Becoming more articulated and explicit about what comprises food systems change, what are sustainable healthy diets and what could be monitored is crucial to support the Strategic Partners to have tangible actions to track. Moving from food system narratives to specific actions will facilitate understanding of what is, or needs to be, monitored.

Do empowerment impacts endure? The medium-term impacts of the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Gender Linkages (ANGeL) Project in Bangladesh

Whether impacts of development interventions are sustainable has attracted much recent interest (examples include Bandiera et al., 2017, Banerjee et al., 2021, Blattman et al., 2020, Carneiro et al., 2021, Grisolia, 2024, and Haushofer and Shapiro, 2018). When interventions involve trained facilitators, for example, it is of interest to know whether effects persist once these facilitators are no longer delivering the message (Ahmed et al, forthcoming). The recognition of women’s empowerment and gender equality as intrinsically important has spawned a growing literature on the impacts of development interventions on women’s empowerment (Quisumbing et al. 2023, Quisumbing et al. 2024) and attitudes towards gender roles (Alderman et al. 2025). Yet, with few exceptions (Alderman et al. 2025) there is little overlap between these two areas of work, in large part because many impact evaluations fail to follow up after the initial evaluation is completed. A synthesis of findings from a portfolio of 11 agricultural development projects in South Asia and Africa suggests that, while projects are able to affect aspects of empowerment such as decisionmaking over resources and control over income, changes in gender norms are more difficult to achieve in the two to three year time span over which impact evaluations are typically conducted(Quisumbing et al. 2024). If women’s empowerment interventions aim ultimately to change gender norms, to detect impacts, they should be measured over a sufficiently long period of time to allow for norm change.

Real-time media analysis using large language model (LLM) for the top 5 prioritized pests and diseases

This report presents a comprehensive overview of the real-time media analysis system developed to assess risks associated with the top five prioritized pests and diseases affecting crops. The activity, under Work Package 2 of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Plant Health, utilizes advanced text mining and machine learning techniques, including a Large Language Model (LLM), to process and analyze media articles. Key achievements include the development of an automated media analysis pipeline to monitor pests and diseases globally, the integration of GPT-4 to classify and extract detailed information from news articles, the creation of a public, interactive Crop Disease Dashboard providing real-time insights, the implementation of a cloud-based interface and REST API for user-friendly interaction and integration, and the ongoing refinement of the system based on human verification and feedback. This innovative approach aims to strengthen crop health monitoring and support policymakers and researchers in mitigating the risks posed by crop diseases and pests.

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Social assistance and adaptation to flooding in Bangladesh

As climate change exacerbates weather shocks, there is growing interest in understanding whether social assistance programs can support coping among poor rural households and whether program effects vary by gender. We assess whether a social assistance program – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) –influenced the effects of prior monsoon flooding on household consumption and adult diets in southern Bangladesh. TMRI provided cash or food transfers, with or without nutrition behavior change communication, from 2012-2014. Within the study sites and years, flooding was substantial but moderate. Our findings suggest that, without TMRI, a one-standard-deviation increase in lagged flooding led to households smoothing consumption by drawing down savings and reducing diet quality among both men and women. In contrast, among TMRI treatment households, lagged flooding did not reduce savings, and both men’s and women’s diet quality improved. Effects on diet quality appeared largely driven by legumes and by fruits and vegetables, and improvements appeared strongest among households receiving both transfers and behavior change communication. Results indicate that social assistance can help households cope with effects of moderate flooding in southern Bangladesh, protecting household savings and improving both men’s and women’s diets.

Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic shocks ac-counting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private consumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bang-ladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

The cluster panacea? An evaluation of three interventions in shrimp value chains in Bangladesh

Clustering farming has often been proposed as an effective way to overcome the significant transactions costs faced by downstream buyers in interacting and negotiating with many small farmers, while making it easier for extension workers and governments to dispense advice, provide upstream services and inputs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of a set of three initiatives in Bangladesh, implemented by a government department, a private sector processing firm and a not-for-profit industrial advocacy body, all involving clustering contiguous shrimp farm ponds to enable group certification necessary for global market access. We implement a canonical difference-in-differences model using two rounds of surveys of a sample of over 1,222 farmers in 2023 and 2024 to assess the impacts on pond management practices, net profits and any unintended impacts on food security and dietary diversity. Our results suggest that the cluster interventions had impressive impacts on adoption of better farm management practices. However, these do not appear to translate into significant gains in net profits, perhaps because these interventions are still relatively new. Further, it appears that cluster farmers pay a penalty on account of a shift to more intensive cultivation, represented by a loss in species diversity and lower incomes from fish and vegetables. We find that there are no significant spillover effects as yet on shrimp farmers in the same village as the clusters. This study reflects critically on the efficacy of clustering that is presumed to enhance access to global markets.

Women’s empowerment and migration: A review of the current literature and promising areas for future work

When individuals migrate— whether domestically or internationally, short- or long-term—migrants and their families experience dramatic changes in household dynamics and are exposed to new contexts and ideas (Hugo 2002). This phenomenon has driven a body of research focused on the linkages between women’s empowerment and migration, which primarily focuses on changes to the empowerment of wives when their husbands migrate (Fernández-Sánchez et al. 2020). To a lesser extent there is also literature on whether empowerment status contributes to the decision to migrate and migration experiences, as well as whether individuals might become more, or less, empowered during migration and at their ultimate destinations. Herein we synthesize these literatures and identify priority areas for future work.

Advancing climate-smart financial solutions for smallholder farmers: Lessons from the CGIAR Climate Resilience Initiative

Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries face climate-related risks that increase their income volatility and compromise their well-being. The CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) has developed and implemented a suite of innovative instruments aimed at transforming the climate adaptation capacity of smallholder farmers. This brief examines the potential of these bundled financial solutions in enhancing smallholder farmers' resilience to climate risks and documents ClimBeR's experience in implementing and scaling these instruments.

Migration and women’s voice and agency in Senegal: Introducing a new survey

Millions of poor households around the world rely on migration to improve their economic circumstances and, increasingly, for resilience in the face of a changing climate. In vulnerable contexts, slow-onset climate impacts like water scarcity, rising temperatures, and more variable weather conditions are diminishing local economic opportunities and increasing food insecurity. Such climate impacts are projected to accelerate migration patterns, particularly out-migration from rural areas (Rigaud et al., 2018; SVR, 2023). While news reports on climate migration often emphasize communities leaving an area en masse due to a natural disaster, climate migration due to slow-onset climate shifts, which gradually lower crop yields and hinder agricultural livelihoods, more commonly implies a male household member migrating within a country, often seasonally, in order to send remittances back to his family.

Development of the rural household energy insecurity experiences scale with insights from Ethiopia

There is little evidence on how energy poverty affects rural households in low- and middle-income countries. To address this, the CGIAR NEXUS Gains Initiative developed the Rural Household Energy Insecurity Experiences Scale (RHEIES) and piloted the tool in Ethiopia using in-depth interviews. We find heterogeneous energy insecurity experiences across locations and gender dimensions.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.org.

Understanding migration within countries: A global perspective

The majority of migrants remain within their own borders. While 281 million people have migrated in another country in 2020, the number of internal migrants is estimated to stand at around 763 million (UN DESA, 2016; IOM, 2021). At the global level, the existing literature has mainly focused on understanding the drivers of international migration (Karemera et al., 2000; Mayda, 2010; Kim and Cohen, 2010). Understanding the dynamics of internal migration is key for conjecturing future prospects in terms of poverty, food insecurity, urbanization, within-country inequalities and geopolitical instability.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Gender and age employment gaps within agrifood value chains in Bangladesh and Uganda

Using data collected with a novel sampling approach for agrifood value chains in Bangladesh (rice and potato) and Uganda (arabica coffee and soybean), this study documented meaningful gender and age employment gaps within intermediary sections of the value chains, which include trading , processing, and wholesaling activities. While agrifood value chains have potential to generate new jobs and close gaps for both women’s and youth employment in low- and middle-income countries, the study identifies large gender gaps in both operators of intermediary firms and those employed by these firms, as well as an age gap, with few youth operating intermediary firms. The brief offers recommendations for addressing systemic barriers that contribute to gender and age gaps in this “hidden middle” of agrifood value chains.

External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation

The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Market diversification to increase the demand for and value of Bangladeshi shrimp

In a rapidly growing global shrimp industry, Bangladesh’s shrimp sector faces fierce competition from much larger producers such as Ecuador, India, and Vietnam. One of Bangladesh’s challenges is that it is overdependent on Europe's fragmented hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) segment and ethnic retail markets, where it exports 88 percent of its output. This market is highly price-driven and limited in size. However, Bangladesh’s exporters have no or only limited access to retail markets in the European Union (EU), the United States (US), or other markets that source black tiger shrimp due to a lack of high-quality products, a lack of Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) and Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP) certification, negative market perception of the country’s shrimp, and a lack of promotional activities. As a result of the increased competition and restricted market access, Bangladesh’s exporters and farmers are experiencing spiraling prices, and their future activities are at risk. Diversifying its markets should help the industry increase demand and get better prices for the products it exports. This brief explores the current market position of Bangladeshi shrimp and what the country can do to diversify its markets. Promotion is key, but not to consumers. Business-to-business (B2B) shrimp buyers worldwide must view Bangladesh as a reliable source of competitive, high-quality, sustainable shrimp.

An evaluation of farmers' digital literacy and awareness on the adoption and implementation of bundled digital innovations in Uganda

Global agri-food systems face numerous challenges, including the adverse effects of climate change, low productivity, limited adoption of technologies, and restricted access to input and output markets. These constraints contribute to increased food insecurity, decreased income from agriculture, and stagnated growth rates in many agrarian economies. Digitizing the agriculture sector presents a sustainable solution to these challenges by providing critical information that supports optimal decision-making, enhancing efficiency and productivity. However, the widespread adoption of digital innovations in this sector is hindered by low awareness of existing technologies, limited digital literacy, and prevailing social norms and power dynamics affecting various population segments, particularly women and youth.

To overcome these barriers, campaigns aimed at improving digital literacy and raising awareness is essential for promoting the uptake and use of digital innovations. Despite the importance of these initiatives, studies that quantify the impact of such interventions on the adoption and use of bundled digital innovations remain limited. This evaluation report, first, examines the effects of awareness creation and digital literacy trainings on the adoption of bundled digital innovations, differentiated by gender. Second, it evaluates the impact of digital literacy training on input use (improved seeds, fertilizer, agrochemicals (fungicides and herbicides) and mechanization), crop yields (for at least two major annual crops in the study area: maize and beans and two cash crops (banana and coffee), and income, all categorized by gender and other socio-economic characteristics.

Data for this study were obtained from a randomized controlled trial (RCT), collected over two waves: a baseline conducted in September 2023 and a follow-up in September 2024. The treatment group comprised 253 households from three districts in Uganda, who received digital literacy training along with basic agronomic training as part of the intervention. In contrast, the control group consisted of 284 households from two districts. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were employed since the covariates were balanced between the treatment and control groups at both the baseline and follow-up stages. ANCOVA was also utilized for validation purposes, incorporating pre-treatment variables to enhance model estimates. The results indicate an attrition rate of 4.5%, with no significant differences observed across the various explanatory variables. This suggests that attrition is nonsystematic. The balance test scores show no evidence of differences in covariates between the treatment and control groups, which supports the use of OLS regression for empirical estimation. The intervention led to a significant increase in the uptake of improved seeds, as well as a positive trend of gross revenues from agricultural production and increased consumption expenditures on both food and non-food items. This study suggests that creating awareness and providing digital literacy training can enhance the adoption of productivity-enhancing inputs, such as improved seeds. Additionally, it is essential to adopt an inclusive, gender-sensitive approach to ensure that awareness and training campaigns have a wider impact.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Bangladesh

Urban-rural disparities in undernutrition in children under five have dissipated. Stunting declined from 2014 to 2022 in both urban and rural areas, but more so in rural areas, leading to comparable rates of stunting in urban and rural areas (22 percent, 24 percent).
Wasting remains “high” (according to the World Health Organization) in both urban and rural areas (11 percent).
The prevalence of child overweight is low but increasing, especially in Dhaka.
Vitamin A deficiency affects half of children under five. Vitamin D and iron deficiencies are higher in urban areas, with zinc and iodine deficiencies more prevalent in rural areas.
Urban and rural diets lack fruits and vegetables. A third of urban households have inadequate caloric intake.
The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.03 to $3.64 per person per day from 2017– 2022 and the percentage of the population unable to afford a healthy diet fell from 65 to 48 percent. Currently, 82 million people are unable to afford a healthy diet in the country.
The diet diversity of young children has improved since 2011, but gains were seen mostly in rural areas. The percentage of all children fed the minimum meal frequency dropped by 20 percentage points from 2017 to 2022.
Urban informal settlements are a concern – children have higher rates of stunting, lower dietary diversity, and higher prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies compared to other urban children.
Overweight and obesity in urban adults is a critical problem. More urban women (48 percent) are overweight compared to rural women (35 percent); the same is true for urban men (29 percent) compared to 17 percent for rural men.
Some urban nutrition interventions to tackle child undernutrition are being implemented, but few have been rigorously evaluated.
Data on urban food environments (FEs) is becoming more available, but there are gaps in knowledge, particularly on the design and evaluation of interventions to counter the influence of the country’s increasingly obesogenic urban FE.
National policies include targeted actions to improve urban diets and nutrition. More could be done, however, to improve the healthiness and safety of FEs, leverage social protection programs for the urban poor to make healthy diets more affordable, and to implement double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition.

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries - Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam - with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Rural-urban diet convergence in Bangladesh

This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh.

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh

The 2022 Bangladesh Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Food environment research in Sri Lanka: A desk review

Key Findings
• Research has documented the availability of modern food retail (e.g. fast-food) in both urban and rural contexts, and its influence especially on adolescents.
• Barriers to accessing healthy diets include the high cost of nutritious foods, especially vegetables and animal source foods, the time needed to cook fresh meals, and food safety
• Most research to date has utilized cross-sectional designs, with relatively few studies examining associations with diet or health outcomes, or evaluating interventions.

Can transfers and complementary nutrition programming reduce intimate partner violence four years post-program? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Little is known about whether reductions in intimate partner violence (IPV) from transfer programs persist. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that women in rural Bangladesh who received cash transfers with complementary nutrition programming (including group-based training, home visits, and community meetings) experienced sustained reductions in IPV four years after the program ended. Neither cash transfers alone, nor food transfers with or without complementary nutrition programming, showed sustained impacts on IPV. Evidence suggests that cash with complementary nutrition programming sustained IPV reductions through persistent increases in women’s bargaining power, costs to men of perpetrating violence, and men’s emotional well-being.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Agrifood trade

Agrifood exports make up about one-third of Myanmar’s total exports, and their share of both total exports and as a ratio of total GDP has risen in recent years. Agrifood exports have the potential to generate higher income for farmers, traders, processors, and other stakeholders within agrifood value chains. Additionally, they can contribute to the country’s foreign exchange earnings, supporting the importation of manufactured products embedded with modern technology required for the transformation of the agrifood sector. This chapter analyzes the past performance of key agrifood exports and assesses their potential role in the transformation of Myanmar’s agrifood system and the overall economy.

The rice sector

Recent major local shocks have negatively affected Myanmar’s economy
and its people. Disruptions in the world economy linked to the outbreak
of COVID-19 in early 2020 and the Ukraine war in 2022 and 2023
have led to sharp price increases for petroleum products, wheat, vegetable oils,
and other food products, as well as agricultural inputs, such as chemical fertilizers.
Myanmar’s rice sector has also been adversely affected by increases in
insecurity in rural areas, higher world prices, and reduced cross-border exports
to China.

This chapter explores the implications of these shocks for Myanmar’s rice
exports, domestic rice production, and domestic rice prices. First, we discuss
Myanmar’s rice economy. Next, we describe the equations, database, and
parameters of the partial equilibrium model of Myanmar’s rice economy used
in this analysis. We then present model simulation results, covering the effects
of the income and price shocks in 2022, negative rice production shocks
accompanied by lower rice exports in 2023, and implications of a cessation of
cross-border rice exports to China. The final section summarizes the results,
discusses policy implications, and suggests areas for further work.

Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities

Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient.

Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.

A historical and regional perspective on Myanmar’s agrifood system

Agriculture and the related input supply, processing, trade, and retail distribution activities that make up national food systems are a major driver of rural economic transformation in low- and middle-income countries (Mellor 2017). As Chapter 2 shows, in addition to directly contributing to rural employment and GDP in Myanmar, the growth of the agrifood system has high multiplier effects on the broader rural economy. Yet in Myanmar, as Warr (2016) argues, lack of agricultural productivity growth combined with dependence on extractive sectors, such as jade, teak, and natural gas, has held back the transformation of the economy.

Livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture: Status and recent trends

Livestock rearing and fishing have been central components of rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain so today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early 1990s and have grown briskly since then. Poultry and aquaculture commoditization accelerated between 2011 and 2019, stimulated by the demand-side pull of rapid income growth and by foreign and domestic investment in areas such as feed milling and food retail (for example, businesses such as Kentucky Fried Chicken, which opened in Myanmar in 2015). However, despite recent growth, both sectors lag behind those in more developed countries in the region in technological sophistication, scale, and regulation.

This chapter summarizes the status of the supply side of livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture based on an analysis of nationally representative data extracted from the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) 2017 (CSO 2019) and a review of trends in these sectors using information drawn from other recent surveys and secondary sources. We analyze MLCS to sketch a picture of the contributions of livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture to household incomes in the four agroecological zones (AEZs—Delta, Dry Zone, Coastal Zone, and Hills and Mountains) into which MLCS results are categorized (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). The MLCS livestock and fishery modules asked questions about each household’s ownership, production, sales, and consumption of livestock and livestock byproducts, as well as aquaculture and capture fisheries products in the previous 12 months. Respondents were asked to estimate the quantity or value of these variables, making it possible to calculate the value of livestock and fish income, expenditure, and consumption for each household.

Food processing: A stalled transformation

Processed foods account for 80 percent of global food sales. Such foods are becoming increasingly important in low- and middle-income countries, driven by growing demand for convenient and ready-to-eat products. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the state and evolution of food processing in Myanmar and to assess the effect of the crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on the different segments—production, trade, and consumption—of the sector. This assessment is important given the possible implications of changes in food processing for agriculture, employment opportunities in the food processing industry and food service sector, and nutritional outcomes.

Income diversification and the rural nonfarm economy

The rapid transformation of the rural sector between 2011 and 2021 has been well-documented in relation to farming and included profound changes in crops grown, farming practices, markets, and value chains. This transformation has been described in this volume, as well as in Belton and Filipski (2019), Filipski et al. (2020), Boughton et al. (2018), and World Bank (2017). However, this period also witnessed a diversification of activities away from agriculture, with incomes shifting away from reliance on subsistence farming and agriculture in general. The contributions of wage work and rural nonfarm businesses are growing in importance as the rural sector moves beyond an agrarian model in which primary agricultural production is the dominant source of wealth. Though the general equilibrium analysis from Chapter 2 shows that agriculture remains a major driver of economic activity, a micro-level analysis finds that activities either downstream in the food value chain or outside of the food system entirely are now responsible for large shares of rural incomes.

Crop production: An engine in need of an upgrade

According to the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) undertaken in 2017, 54 percent of rural households and 8.4 percent of urban households earn some of their income from crop farming (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2020). As seen in Chapter 2, crop production has important value-added and employment linkages upstream and downstream from farms, including in fertilizer and chemical input supply, mechanization services, transport, processing, wholesale and retail distribution, and exports. Crop production also provides the majority of the nation’s calorie intake as well as raw material for processed animal feed. However, as Chapter 3 shows, with maize as the one exception, the crop sector itself has not grown in recent years due to decades of underinvestment in agricultural research, limited transport infrastructure, and highly variable prices for export crops. This chapter provides a more detailed picture of the spatial distribution of crop production and production technologies, which is relevant to the discussion in Chapter 18 on regional variations in rural livelihoods.

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region.

Understanding the organizational approaches of funders and project implementers to strengthen women’s empowerment through agricultural collectives

This paper reports on approaches for strengthening women’s empowerment that were implemented by project partners involved in the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI)-led Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW) project funded by the Walmart Foundation. The study explores the partner organizations’ websites and publications, project materials, and selected staff interviews to better understand how each envisions women’s empowerment and the pathways for supporting it. The four implementing project partners are Grameen Foundation, Professional Assistance for Development Action (PRADAN) in India, Root Capital in Mexico, and TechnoServe in Guatemala. Their programs and their organizational approaches vary in whether they primarily focus on women rather than more broadly targeting both women and men and their gender relationships. Some organizations are more “organic” in integrating attention to gender and empowerment into their programs, designing and implementing an approach on a case by case basis. Others are more intentional in establishing organization-wide policies, strategies, and monitoring systems. The organizations also differ in their positions on supporting “economic empowerment” and clear economic benefits such as prioritizing increased income or assets in contrast to those that also seek to actively change social norms and achieve other social dimensions of empowerment that encompass behaviors around decision-making, mobility, and self-confidence. Another variation is in the organizations’ attention to enterprise development and, consequently to entrepreneurship and upgrading, and what aspects of women's empowerment are most critical for achieving those goals. This paper offers implementers and their funders insight into organizational differences in approaches to women’s empowerment. The review demonstrates that both funders and implementers continue to focus on strengthening women’s economic empowerment by increasing women’s incomes and assets, often with good results. However, they often lack clear theories of change or explicit strategies to strengthen other dimensions of women’s empowerment. More nuanced, evidence-based theories of change and targeted actions could strengthen program design to expand and support women’s achievement of empowerment across all its dimensions.

Does nutrition-sensitive social protection build longer-term resilience? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity.

Food security and nutrition in Bangladesh: Evidence-based strategies for advancement

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) prepared this report to provide a comprehensive assessment of food security in Bangladesh, with a focus on the core dimensions of availability, access, and utilization.

With support from Md. Al-Hasan, Sadat Anowar, Julie Ghostlaw, Mir Raihanul Islam, Razin Kabir, Md. Aminul Karim, Md. Aminul Islam Khandaker, Nabila Shaima, Raisa Shamma, and Sonjida Mesket Simi

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest October 2024

In the fourth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present global, regional, and country-level evidence on various aspects of nutrition. The global studies include a discussion on strategies to improve infant and child survival rates that are currently off track, a systematic review examining effects of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements on maternal and infant outcomes, a scoping review to understand delivery platforms for reaching adolescents with nutrition interventions, a study assessing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption trends among children and adolescents across 185 countries, and a policy-oriented study shedding light on the cost to inaction in achieving nutrition targets. Other studies of interest include assessment of factors associated with adolescent motherhood and child undernutrition in Bangladesh, double and triple-burden of malnutrition among adolescents and children in India, and two sub-national level studies from India on diets and nutritional status of women of reproductive age, and women’s empowerment and child anthropometry. This issue also includes several studies on antenatal care, including its quality, utilization, and integration of other services to improve child growth, and two studies are focused on factors affecting dietary behaviors, and diet quality of women and children. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

Poultry value chain and cluster development in Papua New Guinea: Insights from a recent field study

Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population.

This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain.

Task or time? Comparing methods for measuring the gender distribution of work

There is growing evidence that gender disparities in the distribution of paid and unpaid work impose constraints on women’s well-being and livelihoods, reducing access to paid employment, and time for education, leisure, and social activities. Yet, gender disparities in unpaid work often go undiagnosed by traditional household surveys. While time-use surveys are well-suited for measuring unpaid work, they are often expensive to administer and take substantial amounts of survey time, leading to respondent fatigue, particularly in multi-topic surveys where other outcomes are also being collected.

In this paper, we compare data collected using the task allocation module in the Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA) integrated household survey and the time-use module in the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) survey. We begin by describing the methods used to collect the data in each of the surveys. We present an overview of the characteristics of the study sites in the TAFSSA integrated survey and sites in the same countries where the WEAI data were collected. We then present comparable data from each of the two methods. The findings confirm the gendered patterns in involvement in different activities as measured by both survey modules. While women’s participation in agricultural activities is high across Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, the amount of time they spend on agricultural activities is less than that spent by men. Both survey tools confirm that women undertake most of the food preparation-related activities, and men contribute through shopping/purchasing food.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

How do videos fit into current agricultural advisory services? Lessons from Kenya and Uganda

While video extension is a recognized means to overcome the challenges posed by traditional agricultural advisory services, adoption has been limited. This paper presents two case studies conducted in Kenya and Uganda that explore the potential of video extension for promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. In Kenya, videos were rolled out by GROOTS Kenya, which predominantly serves women farmers. In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ Agricultural Extension Services implemented the video rollout, focusing on both women and men farmers. We used qualitative research linked to both video rollouts to understand the benefits and challenges linked to the intervention. We also compared the implementation strategies used in the two countries to evaluate the suitability of videos as a “best fit” advisory provision tool. Both women and men farmers enjoyed watching the videos. They improved farmers' access to information, resulting in increased knowledge and adoption of CSA practices. Costs involved in some practices affected their adoption as did lack of intrahousehold decision-making power, particularly for women. In some cases, infrastructural challenges complicated the video showings. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional agricultural extension with interactive and context-specific video content without replacing and neglecting other modes of extension, as well as the need for political support to ensure the scalability and long-term success of video extension initiatives.

Cluster-based development: Lessons from country experiences for Odisha, India

Clusters are spatial aggregations of small businesses producing the same or related goods or services. Together, these businesses have the potential to contribute to economic development of rural areas by compounding the existing strengths of local producing communities. Cluster-based development has been successful where governments facilitate infrastructure and provide services to support existing clusters, often leading to spillover and expansion of these clusters to wider areas over time (Abdelaziz et al. 2021). Agrifood cluster development can occur via two broad mechanisms: (1) immanent development, where clusters of commercial farms as well as firms in the value chain that provide goods and services re quired by farms (for example, specialized production inputs, machinery, and transport), emerge spontaneously in co-located groups; and (2) organized development, where actors such as government, companies, or nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) organize producers into groups to deliver extension services, inputs, or credit or to upgrade production practices, facilitate collective action to improve terms of market access, or enable compliance with standards or forms of branding such as geographic indications.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Bangladesh Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Resilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions.

Can farmer collectives empower women and improve their welfare? Mixed methods evidence from India

Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs)—farmer collectives, often legally registered - can mitigate some of the constraints smallholder farmers face by improving their access to extension, services, and markets, especially for women. We evaluate the effects of a set of interventions delivered through women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, India, using a panel of 1200 households and a difference-in-difference model with nearest neighbor matching. A complementary qualitative study in the same areas helps triangulate and interpret our findings. The interventions aimed to improve agricultural productivity by coordinating production and improving access to services, while also providing gender sensitization trainings to FPO leaders and members. We collect household data on asset ownership and agricultural outcomes and individual data on women’s and men’s empowerment using the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). Our results for asset ownership, land cultivated, cropping intensity, and per acre yields, revenues or costs are statistically insignificant. Effects on men’s and women's empowerment are mixed. While we see positive effects on women’s decisionmaking, asset ownership, control over income and attitudes towards intimate partner violence, the program is associated with an increase in workload and a reduction in active group membership for both men and women. Men appear to cede control over resources and decisionmaking to other household members. Additional analyses suggest that while some effects can occur in the short-term, others take time to accrue. FPO based interventions that aim to empower women or other marginalized groups likely require sustained investments over multiple years and will need to go beyond improving FPO functioning and increasing women’s participation to transforming social norms.

The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh

Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains operating between the farmgate and retailers typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of the firms that transform agricultural produce into food. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies both to improve the stability of the agricultural sector and to improve outcomes among smallholder farmers.

Feasibility of nationwide warehouse receipt system: An assessment of the potential for a nationwide warehouse receipt system and recommendation for the requisite legal and regulatory framework

Warehouse receipts systems (WRS) have been used to tackle multiple challenges faced by farmers. In the absence of adequate collateral and consequent credit constraints, a WRS enables the use of inventory as collateral for loans, thus removing a key constraint farmers face. With growing digital reach, electronic based Negotiable Warehouse Receipts (e-NWR) that can be swapped, exchanged and traded and can assist in deepening financial markets while maintaining the integrity of the system. While e-NWRS can potentially address farmer level constraints, they can also be viewed from a larger policy perspective as a system that aids government plans for food security and manage public procurement operations better and more nimbly; it can also play a key role for enhancing the efficiency and food quality and safety along value chains by enabling mid-stream players like traders and importers to manage these chains better. This report seeks to inform the policy process around e-NWRS by focusing on the potential of Ware house Receipt Financing, more broadly, in the agricultural development of Bangladesh. To do this we review global evidence as well as evidence closer to home, within South Asia, to understand the pre-conditions and prerequisites for a successful system.

Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency

This study conducts an assessment of the current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps of the Directorate General of Food (DG Food) and suggests remedies to strengthen the agency. Formed originally as the Supply Department in undivided Bengal under British rule in the early 1940s, the organization was named the Directorate General of Food by the provincial government of East Pakistan in 1956. Upon the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, DG Food became a part of the Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies and was later renamed as the Directorate General of Food in 1975. The last major reorganization of the agency took place in 1984. The current mandates and organogram are from 1984. As the custodian of the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS), DG Food plays an important role for the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). Under the Social Safety Net Programs (SSNP) of the GoB, DG Food ensures food security for vulnerable populations. In its sprawling countrywide network of 650-plus traditional warehouses, DG Food has an effective storage capacity of 1.9 million tons. In recent years, DG Food has procured and distributed approximately 3.0 million tons of foodgrains per year. A very large organization, DG Food has a sanctioned workforce of over 13,000 officers and employees, and an annual budget of approximately 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Private investments in modern food storage: An economic feasibility analysis for private investments in modern food storage and potential public sector roles in promoting such investments

Unprecedented growth in rice production in Bangladesh over the last four decades has outpaced the capacity of post-harvest operations, resulting in substantial grain losses. While production technology has changed dramatically over time, there has been relatively little private investment in transforming storage capacity in the country. This paper explores the lack of widespread private investment in improved grain storage and examines the potential for public support to stimulate greater private sector investment in modern storage. We calculate the returns to investment in bulk grain silos and hermetic cocoons that could upgrade warehouse storage, and calculate the grain loss that conversion to those technologies would prevent. We then assess the public support that would be required to trigger private investment in modern storage systems. Our analysis shows that storage in jute bags in warehouses or homes outperforms the modern technologies in terms of financial returns at observed prices. Our analysis further shows that given the observed price changes during the harvest and post-harvest periods from 2008 to 2018, cocoon and silo storage as well as conventional warehouse storage were unprofitable in most years and on average overall. Although seasonal variation in market prices for paddy is sometimes pronounced, the pattern of the variation is not sufficiently large or consistent to make paddy storage reliably profitable. Conventional warehouse storage implied an average loss of BDT 2,877/MT/season over the 20 seasons considered. Use of modern storage methods would have implied average losses of BDT 3,200/MT/season to BDT 4,950/MT/season, depending on technology used. These results imply that a public sector co-investment on the order of BDT 300/MT would be required to trigger a shift from conventional to modern storage by traders or millers. This shift would imply a reduction in grain loss of 30kg to 80kg per MT stored for a public cost of BDT 3.75 to BDT 10.00 per kilogram of loss avoided. To make it profitable for intermediaries to provide commercial storage services to farmers who currently store on-farm would require a much larger co-investment of about BDT 3,200/MT stored, implying BDT 40 to BDT 106 per kilogram of loss avoided. Removal of import tariffs on storage technologies or realization of a price premium for silo-stored or hermetically stored grain could be sufficient to encourage millers to adopt modern storage, but would be inadequate to trigger increased off-farm storage as an independent activity. There is anecdotal evidence of a price premium for paddy that has been stored using improved technology. Existence of such a premium could significantly reduce public support needed to trigger private investment in improved storage.

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

This report has been prepared as one of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Integrated Food Policy Research Program (BIFPRP) implemented by the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh under a World Investment for Modernizing Food Storages Facilities in the country. The key arguments and recommendations drawn up for the report are based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Food and agricultural policies have historically played a crucial role in triggering growth in many developing countries. While there were debates, public procurement and distribution of food are widely accepted as a “second best” solutions for countries characterized by markets and institutional failures. However, Bangladesh has done remarkably well in adjusting to changing realities and the country is now widely recognized for its agricultural policy reforms. But there is still room for further improvement and efficiency gains for which two broad sets of recommendation can be considered:
1) Pricing and procurement targets - Pricing in Bangladesh continues to be based on the average cost of production but with the application of satellite imageries, app-based small area estimation, the procurement price estimates can be improved substantially. Also, the current procurement target determination formula misses out on some key aspects of production, marketing, and macroeconomic parameters. The quota for each upazila is based on total production and milling capacities but it also needs to consider the net surplus to calculate how much could be procured in each Upazilas.
2) Alternative procurement modalities
a) The report recommends changing this modality to Delivered to Destination Warehouse (DDW) through the open tendering method and undertaking pilots and learning from experiences to enhance efficiency can be important.
b) Linking smallholders to markets through product aggregation has received renewed attention globally. Available data suggests that Bangladesh’s public procurement has thus far not managed to effectively integrate small farmers to its procurement system. To scale up nationally, we believe that more innovation in technology and a new institutional set up will be necessary.
c) Implementing Delivered Duty Paid Modality on a pilot basis where the seller assumes all responsibilities and costs for delivering the goods to the named place of destination.
d) Piloting Deficiency Payment Method as an effective method to provide both income and price to farmers of a wide range of agricultural commodities. Two key instruments of implementing this method would be Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), which are tools available to the farmers. A recent report by the NITI Aayog of India also makes a strong case for this procurement modality and we also argue in favor of undertaking this pilot.