Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

Tenure: Policy research on resources, rights, and equity

Secure tenure of land and natural resources is critical for ensuring equitable, efficient, and sustainable production of food and resilient rural livelihoods. This chapter examines foundational concepts and key lessons from research on tenure, including how different forms of tenure affect investment in production and resource management, and identifies priorities for further study, policy, and practice.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past five decades, Latin America and the Caribbean has experienced significant changes in its food systems, while also facing both long-standing and new challenges. The region plays a key role in global food security and nutrition, as well as in stabilizing the global climate and conserving biodiversity. Moving forward, the region must overcome the hurdles created by economic and political instability, climate change, and deep-rooted structural inequalities. This chapter draws on research by IFPRI and partners to outline the evolving food systems landscape and present policy options and research priorities for the years ahead.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agrifood trade: Changing challenges, changing perspectives on policy and policy research

Agrifood trade plays a key role in ensuring food security, providing smallholders and rural traders with better prices for their products in bigger and higher-value markets, improving efficiency in the production and use of natural resources, and increasing consumer access to safer and more diversified and nutritious foods. This chapter reviews the evolution of trade research, with a focus on the contributions made by IFPRI and others, as well as priorities for future research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Gender research: Metrics and policies for greater equity and inclusion

Research on gender in development has evolved in parallel with the growing awareness of women’s role in economic development, the importance of gender relations both within and outside the household, and the recognition that women’s empowerment and gender equality are important goals in themselves. This chapter examines the evolution of gender research in the context of the development discourse on gender, focusing on agrifood systems, and identifies major challenges that future research should address.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Impact: Assessing the outcomes of IFPRI's research

Food policy research plays an essential role in helping to achieve food security for all, promote sustainable and healthy diets, build efficient markets, transform economies, and strengthen food systems institutions and governance. This chapter examines IFPRI’s impacts over the last 50 years through providing independent, high-quality evidence to inform policy options, programs, and investments.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agricultural insurance: Policies and programs for reducing farmer risk

Farm households face many market and production risks to their livelihoods, food security, and economic well-being. Agricultural insurance is intended to help protect households from risk, but many agricultural risks are difficult to insure against and demand for insurance products remains low. This chapter examines how policy-oriented research has encouraged public investment, facilitated farmer use, and improved farmer welfare, and explores how new technologies and approaches are creating opportunities for increasing coverage.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Climate change: Understanding impacts on agrifood systems and evaluating policy options

Climate change is a major challenge of our time, with global and far-reaching effects on and from agriculture and food systems. This chapter reviews the evolution of research on climate change, food security, and food systems, reflecting on IFPRI’s major contributions to understanding and modeling climate change impacts and identifying promising policies and investments for mitigation and adaptation.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Quality seeds, improved varieties: The economics of crop genetic improvement and farmer uptake

Crop genetic improvement has long been a cornerstone of global efforts to enhance agricultural productivity, improve food security, and foster economic development. This chapter explores evidence on the contribution of crop improvement to productivity, nutrition, environment, and poverty outcomes, before assessing evolutions in policy research and important areas for future research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Food value chains: Transformations in low- and middle-income countries

Food value chains (FVCs) play a critical role in food systems by linking from agricultural input providers to farmers and producers to consumers. Over the past 50 years, the economic, demographic, and policy context of FVCs in low- and middle-income countries has changed enormously. This chapter discusses major phases and revolutions that shaped the growth, structure, and importance of FVCs to economies, employment, and diets, as well as policy research issues and contributions, and looks ahead to key trends that will continue to shape FVCs.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agricultural extension services: From transfer of technology to facilitation for innovation

Agricultural extension and rural advisory services play a key role in the agrifood systems of many low- and middle-income countries by supporting farmers’ efforts to enhance productivity, strengthen resilience to shocks, and conserve the natural resource base on which these systems depend. This chapter applies IFPRI’s “best fit” conceptual framework to examine the global evolution of agricultural extension and rural advisory services over the past 50 years, as well as the shift from a “transfer of technology” approach to a more sophisticated “facilitation for innovation” paradigm.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Africa’s food systems have undergone significant transformations over the past four decades, with notable improvements in agricultural productivity and food security, but persistent challenges remain. This chapter examines how Africa’s agrifood policy landscape has evolved over time in response to complex challenges, including food insecurity, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities. It explores how IFPRI and other international organizations have offered research-based solutions to Africa’s development challenges, as well as underscoring the necessity of systemic, inclusive, and evidence-based approaches to address the agrifood system challenges projected for 2050.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Food policy research in low- and middle-income economies: Past, present, and future

Food policy research can help empower consumers, producers, and policymakers to address food systems challenges and make decisions that facilitate healthy, equitable, resilient and sustainable food systems transformation. Lessons from the past 50 years of food policy can better prepare us to move forward to 2050: achieving sustainable and equitable solutions to hunger, malnutrition, and poverty will require a shift in how we study, implement, and evaluate innovations in technologies, programming, governance, investments, and markets. This chapter provides an overview of the thematic chapters of the 2025 Global Food Policy Report, which look at the impact of food policy research on agrifood transformation, sustainability, support to farmers, lives and livelihoods, and governance of food systems, and point to future challenges and opportunities.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Political economy and governance: Agriculture and food policy from local to global

Policymaking is shaped by evidence as well as by political economy and governance factors such as incentives, institutional structures, ideological biases, and power dynamics. Over the past several decades, these factors have intersected with significant trends affecting the international development policy landscape, with important implications for agriculture and food policy. This chapter examines the key areas of decentralization, agriculture and food policy reform processes, political economy of distribution, and state capacity, before looking ahead to the need to build effective and legitimate global institutions for food systems governance.

Agrifood systems: Transformation, structural change, and development

Agricultural transformation has long been critical to improving access to food, reducing poverty, and stimulating economic growth, but the role of agriculture in structural change and economic development is evolving in the modern context. This chapter explains the shifting paradigms in our understanding and approaches to agricultural transformation, which continue to redefine discourse, research, and action.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Measuring agrifood systems: New indicators and global estimates

Transformation of the agrifood system is a cornerstone of many governments’ national development plans. This reflects the importance of agrifood systems for the livelihoods and wellbeing of poor populations as well as the continued strong association of agricultural transformation with longer-term economic development and structural change. Agrifood transformation is also key to healthier diets and more sustainable production systems. However, adopting an agrifood system perspective is not trivial—it requires looking “beyond agriculture” when prioritizing policies and tracking outcomes by also considering upstream and downstream agrifood-related activities, such as agro-processing and food distribution. Measuring transformation therefore requires economywide data and innovative metrics. This study introduces two such metrics: AgGDP+, which captures the total value-added across the on- and off-farm sectors of the agrifood system, and AgEMP+, which reflects the employment generated across its various components. It further explains how consistent estimates of AgGDP+ and AgEMP+ were produced for 211 and 186 countries, respectively, over the period between 2000 and 2021, and demonstrates how this Agri-Food System Dashboard—a publicly available resource—can be used to monitor transformation, prioritize investments, and better understand the evolving role of agrifood systems in national economies or at regional or global scales.

Country profile – Nigeria: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country's economy. In 2019, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023).

Strengthening women’s livelihoods through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): Policy strategies for resilience and inclusion: The Bhubaneshwar Charter

Globally, there is increasing recognition of the significant potential for social protection programs to sup-port sustainable livelihoods and build household resilience to climatic and economic shocks (Jordan et al., 2021; Norton et al., 2020). For women—who disproportionately bear the burden of these shocks—such programs serve as a critical safety net and a pathway to economic empowerment (Kosec et al., 2023; Mason & Agan, 2015). Yet, the extent to which social protection delivers on this promise depends on robust financing, inclusive program design, and effective implementation. Evidence suggests that public interventions often fall short in addressing gender inequalities, and that complementary efforts must be made to redress entrenched disadvantages that women might face in shaping, accessing, and benefiting from these programs.

Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us

This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.
Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent.
Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2025

Sudan’s market systems continue to face severe disruptions due to ongoing conflict, political instability, and economic disruptions. These challenges have led to volatile prices, limited availability of essential commodities, and rising food and fuel costs, especially in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity, infrastructure damage, and transport disruptions further exacerbate price disparities, making key goods increasingly unaffordable for vulnerable populations.
To monitor these dynamics, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is implementing a nationwide market monitoring initiative covering 36 markets, two in each of Sudan’s 18 states. The initiative tracks prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities, monitors exchange rate movements, and gathers qualitative insights from market actors. Each month, data is collected in two rounds: the first during the first two weeks, and the second during the last two weeks. In each round, five merchants per market are interviewed using structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. This fortnightly approach enables timely and consistent tracking of market trends.

Synopsis: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development in Rwanda

The study systematically ranks investment options in the agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness across multiple development outcomes.
Investments in SME processors and traders and livestock extension are the most cost-effective for promoting agrifood GDP growth and employment.
SMEs and livestock services together with seed systems and credit access contribute positively to social outcomes (poverty, undernourishment, and diet).
The analysis finds a trade-off between economic gains and environmental outcomes— higher GDP effects often come with greater environmental costs.
The Rwandan case demonstrates a slight shift in the relative cost-effectiveness of investments when accounting for historical climatic risks.
The study emphasizes the need for data-driven investment planning, climate-aware policies, and balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability objectives.

The political economy of large-scale food fortification in West Africa: Pathways toward harmonization

For two decades, there have been ongoing efforts at harmonizing large-scale food fortification (LSFF) policies and procedures in West Africa. Despite some notable successes, micronutrient deficiencies in the region remain elevated. To identify which bottlenecks exist towards greater harmonization on LSFF, this study adopted a political economy perspective to consider areas of contention over interests, ideas, and institutions between domestic stakeholders, across countries, and within regional bodies. The study finds that West African governments have made impressive strides with harmonizing their LSFF standards and committing to the importance of fortification as one of several instruments for improving micronutrient deficiencies. Likewise, the donor and technical community have worked closely with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as specialized institutions of ECOWAS, such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), to advance the LSFF agenda, support the private sector and national fortification alliances, and identify new food vehicles for fortification. At the same time, incoherent trade, tax, and macroeconomic policies in a context of multiple shocks and crises, protectionist impulses aimed at building up domestic agro-industries, lack of financial commitment to LSFF structures in the absence of donor support, and uneven financial contributions to ECOWAS and WAHO remain barriers to progress. Learning from these lessons and considering how to address LSFF from a holistic perspective that accounts for West Africa’s unique demographic, economic, and political characteristics will not only benefit extant harmonization efforts in ECOWAS but also help with broader continental alignment on fortification under the African Union’s 2025-2036 food and nutrition security strategy.

Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed
the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives.

Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and food systems

Food systems generate about one third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Without reducing them, it will not be possible to stabilize the climate and keep the increase in global temperature below 1.5 oC from pre-industrial levels. About 50 percent of agricultural emissions (in CO2eq) come from methane, a super potent GHG, mostly from livestock production and rice cultivation. We consider six broad potential approaches to reducing emissions from agriculture—emission taxes; repurposing of farm support; regulations and conditionality; investing in green innovations; emission reduction credits, and demand-side interventions. We find that carbon taxes on most agricultural production emissions are likely much less effective than for emissions from combustion. Simple rearrangement or reduction of agricultural support will have only small impacts in terms of improving human and planetary health. By contrast, repurposing agricultural support towards R&D on sustainable agricultural intensification could generate major efficiency gains, sharply reduce emissions and improve food security. Regulatory approaches, including conditionality and payment for environmental services (PES) can be counterproductive if they lower yields and require expansion of agricultural land use. The potential benefits of emission reduction credits are greatly diminished by challenges in defining their baselines. Demand interventions designed to contribute both to environmental goals and improvements in health outcomes may also play a supporting role. Since multiple sustainable development goals are to be achieved, no single instrument by itself will be effective. Instead, multiple policy instruments will need to be bundled and targeted to create synergies and address trade-offs.

Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options
overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.

Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.

Transforming fallow lands: An impact evaluation of the Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) Program in Odisha

The Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) program, initiated by the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, is a program to address the underutilization of rice fallow lands in Odisha, particularly during the Rabi (post-monsoon) season which occurs following the Kharif (monsoon) paddy harvest. CRFM was implemented to encourage cultivation of pulses and oilseeds that thrive on residual soil moisture. The CRFM program was implemented in 20 districts of Odisha, in collaboration with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Government of India empaneled agencies that have a presence in the state and prior experience in similar programs. In the remaining 10 districts of the state, the CRFM program was implemented by the state government’s Chief District Agriculture Officers (CDAOs). The impacts of CRFM interventions evaluated in this study comprise crop demonstrations organized in clusters of at least 20 hectares, with crops like black gram, green gram, chickpeas, lentils, grass peas, sesamum, and mustard.

Understanding the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector

We live in a complex world facing uncertainties, crises-including conflict and extreme weather- and a global economic slowdown. These challenges highlight the importance of understanding the agricultural sector's contributions to the economy and designing effective policies to support its resilience and growth. Within this context, examining the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector takes on even greater relevance.

The sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, contributing 6.4% of the total value-added in 2019 and providing 82.1% of agricultural employment in rural areas. However, a significant gender gap exists, with women facing disadvantages in terms of participation, wages, and income generation.

Women's participation in the agricultural workforce is significantly lower than men's. In 2019, only 6.1% of employed women worked in agriculture, compared to 21.6% of men, creating a gap of 15.4 percentage points. This disparity is the largest among all the economic sectors analyzed. This lower participation translates into an unequal distribution of labor income. While the agricultural sector accounts for 11.3% of the total labor income for men, it contributes only 2.6% for women.

Women in agriculture also earn considerably less than men. The average salary for women in the sector was USD 117.4, while men earned USD 168.7, a 43.7% difference. These disparities are persistent across different areas and qualification levels.

To promote a more equitable and resilient agricultural sector, it is essential to understand and address the underlying causes of this gender gap. This paper aims to comprehensively analyze the gender gap in Colombian agriculture by examining its various dimensions and identifying potential solutions. By highlighting the disparities in participation, wages, and income generation across different areas and qualification levels, this paper aims to inform the design of policies and interventions that promote gender equality, empower women in agriculture, and enhance the sector's overall contribution to the country's social and economic development.

Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform

Main Messages:
1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas.
2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation.
3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain.
4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets.
5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment

Concurrent with its rapid economic growth, Viet Nam has been experiencing a food systems transformation. Broad changes in the food environment have been a key part of this transition. While the availability of processed food is ubiquitous, the food environment continues to be largely dominated by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). So, to build strategies to improve the availability and affordability of healthy foods, MSMEs are a key entry point. In this paper, we use primary survey data to separate key sources of variation in MSMEs’ organizational dimensions and business practices by type of outlet, rural-urban location, and gender of the owners. We focus on outcomes related to employment, food sources, business finance, good business practices, and nutrition knowledge and attitudes. We find limited differences in this set of outcomes in terms of whether an outlet is located in a rural, peri-urban, or urban area, or in terms of the gender of its owners. Instead, most of the variation in outcomes can be linked to the type of outlet, raising specific types of outlets as a key focus when seeking to foster the supply of healthier foods in the food environment.

IFPRI strategy for engagement with CAADP 2026-2035: Supporting implementation at regional, sub-regional, and national levels

This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to support implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035. With its renewed focus on transforming Africa’s agrifood systems, CAADP provides a framework to address criti cal challenges captured in six strategic objectives that cover sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, investment mobilization, food and nutrition security, inclusivity, resilience, and governance. Building on its long history of support to the CAADP process, IFPRI’s engagement with CAADP 2026–2035 will focus on providing evi dence, strengthening policy processes, building capacity, and supporting investment mobilization to accelerate Africa’s agrifood system transformation. This strategy identifies specific entry points and pathways through which IFPRI can contribute to achieving CAADP’s six strategic objectives including: (1) research and knowledge genera tion; (2) technical assistance and policy support; (3) capacity development; (4) investment and financing support; (5) monitoring, evaluation, and learning; and (6) stakeholder engagement and convening. Working closely with other CGIAR centers and leveraging its country and regional offices, expertise, partnerships, and extensive expe rience in Africa, IFPRI aims to play a pivotal key role in enabling CAADP’s vision of agricultural transformation and inclusive growth, contributing to food security, economic development, and resilience across the continent. By working across regional, subregional, and national levels, IFPRI will engage with partners to help translate CAADP 2025’s ambitious goals into tangible outcomes for food security, resilience, and economic growth.

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022.

IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP): Background and research output

The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement
Center (CIMMYT).

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l'Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l'Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l'Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program's economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam

Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.

Egypt: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Egypt’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Egypt’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Increasing access to and uptake of livestock vaccines and women’s empowerment with gender-responsive vaccine delivery systems

There are persistent and significant gender gaps in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) which negatively impact productivity, food security and livelihoods. Livestock, particularly chickens, sheep and goats, are essential to sustain livelihoods and nutrition in rural areas of LMICs. They are particularly important to the livelihoods of women and their households given that women farmers in rural areas have few alternative ways of making a living. Preventable, deadly diseases such as Newcastle (ND) and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), however, often decimate flocks of chicken and herds of sheep and goats.
Vaccines to prevent these diseases exist, yet livestock keepers, particularly women in rural areas, infrequently use them. Without these interventions, the health and productivity of the animals are compromised and so is women’s ability to support their livelihoods and that of their households. Both technological and social factors limit access to and uptake of livestock vaccines. For example, technological factors may include a lack of cold chain infrastructure to transport the livestock vaccines. Socio-institutional factors may include informal rules in a community that forbid women from liaising with unrelated men, reducing their ability to obtain animal health services and vaccines from vets (who are almost exclusively men).
The empowerment of women is often seen as a way of addressing gender-based disadvantage and providing women with the capabilities to leverage livestock to support their livelihoods and that of their families. Empowered women farmers are more likely to hear about, access, adopt, utilize and benefit from animal vaccines and healthier livestock. Facilitating women’s empowerment requires addressing women’s limited agency, access to resources, and opportunities. These in turn are influenced by restrictive gender norms, that shape informal rules of behavior and inequitable policies. Gender-responsive policy efforts bundled with interventions that transform restrictive norms could potentially support women’s engagement in the livestock sector and their potential to get empowered.

Gender integration in food-system policies: an adapted policy assessment framework

Food systems are complex and include multifaceted processes in food production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption and post-consumption disposal of food products. Ensuring gender equality within food systems is important because they connect various domains, such as health and nutrition, climate change, environment, fisheries, livestock and agriculture. This interconnectedness within food systems leads to significant implications for human health, including nutrition and diets, as well as climate and environment-related indicators. Interactions of gender within these domains complicate the equitable derivation and distribution of benefits from agricultural activities by women and men. Therefore, policies governing food systems in low- and middle-income countries need to integrate gender-responsive approaches into their design, implementation and monitoring, recognizing the multifaceted processes of food systems and how gender interacts with these processes. The existing tools and frameworks that assess gender integration within policies about food systems do not extend beyond the scope of agricultural production into other interacting domains. This working paper addresses this gap by developing an enhanced framework for evaluating gender integration in policy documents within and beyond agriculture. The thematic reach of this framework includes agriculture, livestock, fisheries, climate change, health and nutrition, environment, and natural resource management. By leveraging a gender and food-systems framework that deconstructs food-systems functions, and how they impact women and men differently, the framework offers structured guidance for incorporating gender-related considerations within policy documents relating to food systems. The framework also has implications for participatory policy processes—design, implementation and monitoring—that aim to foster gender-equitable benefits from food-systems interventions.

Pathways Linking Climate Change to Livestock Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Protocol for a Systematic Review

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has a large livestock population but low productivity and animal source foods consumption which contributed to nutritional problems. Climate change further reduces productivity, impacting the livelihoods of the rural poor who largely rely on livestock. The agri-food system of SSA is characterized by small holder traditional family farms, poor technological uptake, poor infrastructure, poor veterinary services, and weak adaptability to climate effects. Owing to the unique challenges in climate change and agri-food system interface in SSA, contextualized evidence is very important to design interventions. We aimed to synthesize evidence on the pathways linking climate to livestock production and animal source food consumption in SSA context. Understanding the pathways linking climate change to livestock production and consumption in SSA is essential for formulating strategies that enhance food security, improve nutrition, and support rural livelihoods while mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The incoming systematic review will be based on a previously developed systematic map. In the previous systematic map, we searched eight bibliographic databases, institutional website, conducted web-based search, and used citation snowballing to capture all relevant studies. The search was carried out in English and focused on SSA contexts wherever applicable. The search results were imported into Rayyan and screened for relevance based on title, abstract, and full text. At each stage of the screening process, the numbers of studies included and excluded were recorded. From the included studies of the systematic map, we will filter primary, empirical, quantitative articles conducted 2000 and onwards and use for this systematic review. We will extract the main findings of the articles along with key study characteristics and potential sources of heterogeneity. Included studies will be subjected to JBI’s quality appraisal checklists. A narrative synthesis of data from all studies included in the systematic review will be generated to describe the existing evidence along with study findings. Where data are suitably comparable, quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) will be performed.

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India's economy continues to grow.

The impact of the African continental Free Trade Agreement: A continentwide macroeconomic assessment and distributional analysis in Nigeria and Rwanda

Africa remains the least open continent in the world, with high trade restrictions for both intra- and extra-African partners. These restrictions include both tariff and nontariff measures, as well as high transportation costs due to poor infrastructure. However, previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of intra-regional trade in boosting national economies, promoting development, and enhancing food security by increasing the availability of food and stabilizing domestic markets. In particular, informal cross-border trade, which is pervasive in Africa, contributes to food security, although further research is needed on its magnitude.

This research aims to enhance the understanding of current and future trends in Africa’s food systems, focusing on continental) trade and its impact on national economies and markets. Its objective is to assess the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the most ambitious regional trade agreement in Africa, on national economies and markets. The study uses state-of-the-art tools, includes informal cross-border trade of agricultural products, and considers realistic scenarios of trade liberalization.

The study finds that the AfCFTA’s impact will be positive, although limited. Because most African countries are already trading under preferential regimes within regional economic communities (RECs), AfCFTA primarily affects trade flows outside of these communities. We observe traditional trade diversion effects from partners outside of Africa (up to −1.68 percent) and trade creation within the continent (up to 18.48 percent). Like the agreement’s macroeconomic impacts on gross domestic product growth and trade, its effects on poverty are also limited, with more positive effects in Rwanda than in Nigeria, the two countries analyzed in the microsimulation. A gender bias is present in the results: Female-headed house-holds benefit less from the agreement than male-headed households. Given the continent’s high trans-portation costs, significant gains can occur by reducing transport margins in addition to implementing the AfCFTA. In that case, the positive results are amplified, while the negative effects are dampened.
Because AfCFTA implementation is still in early stages, more information is needed to fine-tune the results. First, it is important to examine the assumptions behind the selection of sensitive and excluded products. In the absence of official lists, which are not available for most countries, the final lists may differ from the selection made in this report, although the method we use has proven to be effective for past agreements. In addition, rules of origin and other nontariff measures will play a significant role in the future of the agreement, affecting the results and likely changing the distribution of gains and losses.

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding-oriented, and health oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The model estimates the economic and livestock systems over a period of five years (t1-t5) from a base year at t0, which corresponds to the Fifth Structural Transformation in Agriculture (PSTA5) period.

Farmers' pesticide use, disposal behavior, and pre-harvest interval: A case study from Nigeria

In Sub-Saharan Africa, small farmers rely heavily rely on synthetic pesticides, the overuse of which poses significant risks to human health, the environment, and food safety. Yet detailed empirical evidence on knowledge of and the knowledge and drivers of pesticide management practices remains scarce, limiting insights for policymakers and development practitioners. To address this gap, we leveraged on data collected from 1556 tomato producers in Northern Nigeria to investigate the determinants of pesticide use behavior using a sequential-exploratory mixed-method approach. We examined a broader range of pest management-related practices than prior literature, including safety equipment usage, pesticide disposal methods, and adherence to pre-harvest intervals (PHIs)-, which is the intervals between the last pesticide application and the crop harvest. We found substantial noncompliance with the recommended practices: 45% of farmers reuse empty pesticide containers for other purposes, 14% discard them on the farm, 15% burn containers in open fires, and 40% harvest tomatoes within 1--5 days after pesticide application, violating the 7-day PHI guideline. These findings suggest that many tomato farmers adopt unsafe practices, which have adverse implications for their health, the environment, and the safety of food available to consumers. We show that training on pesticide disposal and midstream market channels (e.g., wholesalers and aggregators) are strongly correlated with improved pesticide handling and higher PHI compliance. Overall, our results underscore the need for targeted training programs to enhance farmers' awareness of safe pesticide application, disposal practices, and PHI adherence. These efforts should be complemented by stronger regulatory frameworks and mechanisms to align farmer pesticide use practices with consumer preferences for safe products, as observed by in the higher PHI adherence among farmers selling to midstream actors.

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

We evaluate forest landholders’ preferences to enter a hypothetical Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) contract (i.e., voluntary carbon credit contract) and assess the relative importance of different program attributes that influence forest landholder preference for such contracts.
When evaluating the attractiveness of PES contracts for forest landholders, analysis suggests that on average, forest landholders are not inclined to enter a PES contract. However, when evaluating differences among households, a variety of characteristics shape the willingness to accept a PES contract, including:
 Landholders that are aware of climate change impacts and those from communities that previously participated in forest protection programs are more likely to accept a PES contract.
 Households that use forested land for commercial logging or hunting grounds are more inclined to accept a PES contract, viewing these contracts as an opportunity to protect forest goods and services.
 Households that rely on forested land for timber harvesting for personal building purposes are less likely to join a PES program, viewing contracts as restrictive to personal land use needs.
When assessing different levels of contract attributes (e.g., payment amount, forest area requirement, and contract length), analysis suggests that forest landholders are more likely to accept a contract that:
 Offers higher financial incentives
 Requires half of their forested land to be under contract (compared to all of their forested land).
On average, forest landholders require an additional annual compensation of $39.07 USD (152 PGK) per hectare to accept PES contracts that require full forested land preservation compared to preserving half of their forested land.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Report on state-level training programme for FPOs in Odisha

This report summarizes the outcomes of two-day State-Level Training Program for Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) for 3 batches held in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, from December 12-23, 2024. Organized by the Department of Agriculture & Farmer Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the CGIAR, the program aimed to enhance the knowledge and skills of FPO functionaries across the state.

The training program, conducted across three batches, engaged approximately 131 participants, with a significant representation of women. The participants comprised CEOs and Board of Directors (BoD) members of FPOs from diverse districts of Odisha.

The training curriculum was designed to address key areas of concern for FPOs, including FPO management, shareholder engagement, post-harvest management, certification, and market access. Experienced trainers, including Shri K.K. Jha and Shri Sujay Kar, along with researchers from IFPRI, delivered interactive sessions on these topics.

The training program was well-received by the participants, with a strong emphasis on practical learning and interactive discussions. Key areas of interest for the participants included FPO management strategies, optimal shareholder numbers, post-harvest management practices, product certification, and exploring diverse marketing channels for their produce.

This training program serves as a crucial step towards strengthening FPOs in Odisha by equipping them with the knowledge and skills necessary for sustainable growth and success. The insights and learnings gained from this program will be valuable in further enhancing the capacity of FPOs to contribute to the development of the agricultural sector in the state.

The training program highlighted the critical role of Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in improving farmer livelihoods and strengthening the agricultural sector in Odisha. It provided a valuable platform for FPO functionaries to enhance their knowledge and skills in key areas of FPO management, such as financial management, marketing, and governance. The program fostered peer learning and networking among FPO representatives from different parts of the state. Furthermore, it identified key areas of concern and priorities for FPOs in Odisha related to the size, composition and structure, and tried to put forward some workable strategies to further strengthen the FPO ecosystem in the state.

This executive summary provides a concise overview of the FPO training program, its objectives, methodology, and key outcomes.

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT
Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems.
OBJECTIVE
This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions.
METHODS
We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns.
SIGNIFICANCE
The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

A review of gender integration in African food-system policies: insights from Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and Kenya

Ensuring gender equality is a crucial aspect of achieving development goals, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Policymaking stands as a key avenue through which governments can actively pursue gender-responsive development. In LMICs—where agriculture often plays a pivotal role in the economy, and rural livelihoods are closely tied to food value chains—the integration of gender in agricultural and food-system policies is paramount. This is particularly true for many African countries. Although many African governments have recognized the importance of gender equality in agricultural and related sectors, gender disparities still persist in these sectors. This study evaluates national policies across various sectors in Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and Kenya, considering gender-based distinctions in the needs and priorities of women and men. Employing tools adapted to the broader context of food systems, the analysis of 54 sectoral policy documents reveals an encouraging pattern at first glance—that 89.9 percent of documents integrate gender considerations and perspectives. However, we identify specific gaps in the integration of gender considerations in national policies related to food systems, such as agriculture, livestock, and climate change. This could differentially affect how women and men derive benefits from ongoing or future changes in the countries’ food systems.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest March 2025

In this fifth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present a diverse body of global, regional, and country-level evidence that, collectively, enhances our understanding of the multifaceted nature of malnutrition, spanning a broad spectrum of outcomes, determinants, and policy responses.

Among the global and regional articles featured, these focus on key challenges and advancements in nutrition, gender, and health equity. Topics include gender-transformative interventions for adolescents, progress toward global nutrition targets, the links between adolescent pregnancy and anemia, optimal iron supplementation strategies, the applicability of a single child growth standard, and the need for a paradigm shift in anemia assessment. Additionally, discussions highlight shifting power dynamics in global health, inequalities in food environment research, the continuum of child development from conception to early life, and defining healthy diets through a joint FAO-WHO perspective.

Other studies of interest include the latest research on maternal and child healthcare trends and inequality, anemia and micronutrient deficiencies, and malnutrition in children and adolescents, with a focus on Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. These studies examine determinants ranging such as marriage, education, and women’s empowerment to maternal and child health outcomes. They also explore the intersection of women's work and child nutrition before expanding to broader dietary behaviors and the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, providing a comprehensive view of key nutrition and health challenges.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

Happy reading!

Impact of farm size on the function of landscape-level payments for ecosystem services: An agent-based model study

Reducing pesticide use and restoring biodiversity are among the most pressing environmental challenges. Enhancing natural pest control ecosystem services through the integration of non-crop habitats (NCH) offers promising potential, creating a positive feedback loop by harnessing insect biodiversity to reduce pesticide reliance. Policy support is needed at the landscape level to encourage adoption of this currently underutilized approach, which depends on spatial coordination and collective behavioral change. Farm size, which critically influences farmers' agrochemical inputs, agroecological practices, and interactions with neighboring farms, varies across agricultural landscapes. It is unclear what role farm size plays in landscape-scale agri-environmental incentive programs, which have recently seen growing attention in scientific research and policy implementation. We employ framed field games and agent-based modeling as complementary research tools, exploring how farm size impacts the function of landscape-scale NCH subsidies aimed at encouraging coordinated provision and sharing of natural pest control services to reduce pesticide use. Our model simulation shows that, in landscapes of larger average farm size or lower farm size heterogeneity, NCH subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing pesticide use and increasing NCH efficiency in providing joint production benefits. Our results imply that landscape-scale payments for natural pest control ecosystem services face fewer obstacles as incentive-based mechanisms in landscapes of larger, more homogeneous farms, supporting the implementation of landscape-scale initiatives in such areas to effectively enhance ecosystem services. Our findings contribute to the growing discussion around landscape-level financial incentive programs that depend on spatial coordination, highlighting the importance of farmers' land holding size.

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

SELEVER study data

The SELEVER study was a cluster randomized controlled trial aiming to evaluate the effects of an inte-grated agriculture–nutrition intervention package (including poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment activities, and a behavior change communications strategy to promote improved diets and feeding, care, and hygiene practices) on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and chil-dren in rural Burkina Faso (1).
Four rounds of data collection were carried out in rural communities of three regions of Burkina Faso: Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest and Haut-Bassins between March 2017 and August 2020. The first round (Baseline) took place between March and June 2017 during the post-harvest season in a sam-ple of 1800 households. The second (Follow-up) and third (Follow-up 2) rounds took place during the lean season in 2017 (September-October) and 2019 (September-October) in a subsample of 1080 households. The last survey round (Endline) took place between March and August 2020 (including a break due to covid-19 restrictions).

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Kenya

Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped.

Cost effectiveness of anticipatory action: Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique

An important question when conducting anticipatory action programs relates to its cost-effectiveness. By cost effectiveness, we refer to the relative costs and benefits of anticipatory action in general relative to a more standard approach to post-shock aid. In this context, we largely want to know what would happen to potential beneficiary households in two different scenarios: 1) if they receive anticipatory action transfers, and 2) if they instead receive unconditional post-shock transfers of the same size. The idea is that we assume there is a fixed budget envelope, and the same amount of assistance could be provided as either anticipatory action or as post-shock transfers. The resulting measurement estimates the difference in benefits and losses to providing anticipatory action relative to post-shock assistance, providing a conclusion on the overall net benefits or losses of this approach. Since we assume a fixed budget envelope, we invert the process of measuring cost effectiveness by measuring the net benefits of anticipatory action relative to post-shock transfers.
This analysis uses the conceptual framework developed by de Brauw and Bloem (2024) to identify classes of potential benefits and costs for anticipatory action relative to unconditional post-shock transfers. The model suggests the main benefit to anticipatory action is that households can better protect their productive asset holdings, whether livestock or other farm implements, which implies their future incomes will be higher than they would be otherwise. There are also potential gains for households during the negative shock, implying those households may be less food insecure, for example, while the shock is occurring.1 On the other hand, the framework suggests that a specific cost to anticipatory action is the cost of getting it wrong (i.e., giving people benefits when the shock does not materialize for those people).

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Advancing women's voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)

To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.

Can district level support enhance coverage and equity? Evidence from India’s nutrition program

Importance: India’s Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) program is among the world’s largest nutrition and health programs that offers services to pregnant, lactating mothers, and young children. To support national investments towards universalization of ICDS interventions, between 2016 and 2020, the Indian government in collaboration with multiple partners, introduced system strengthening mechanisms at the district (subnational administrative unit) level in 64% of India’s districts.

Objectives: To examine national-level trends in coverage and equity of ICDS interventions and the role of district-level support mechanisms in improving equitable coverage.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This quasi-experimental assessment used data (N=393,097 mother-child pairs) from three rounds of nationally representative surveys in 2006, 2016, and 2020. We used inequity indices and regression models to assess changes in equity by wealth, caste, and residence. We applied difference-in-differences (DID) models to investigate changes in coverage due to district support mechanisms between 2016 and 2020.

Intervention: The district support mechanisms were introduced between 2016 and 2020 and included a combination of input features such as capacity building of frontline workers, additional human resources, financial, infrastructural, and technological support, among others.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Our primary outcomes were the receipt of thirteen ICDS services during pregnancy, lactation, and early childhood. District support mechanisms were grouped into three treatment arms for DID analyses using an intention-to-treat approach with heterogeneous treatments.

Results: ICDS utilization continued to increase from 2016 to 2020, with the most improvement observed in health and nutrition education (20-21pp). Unlike 2006-2016, there were large improvements in coverage equity between 2016-2020. DID models show, on average, that districts receiving any programmatic support had significant and faster improvements in coverage (2.2-14.7pp). Pooled effects sizes were larger, on average, for districts that received financial support in addition to human resources (8.9pp, 95% CI 7.3-10.74) compared to districts that only received human resource support (4.5pp, 95% CI 3.4-5.7).

Conclusions: India’s programmatic efforts to further strengthen the ICDS were successful in increasing coverage of ICDS program at the national-level and reducing coverage inequities that persisted earlier. Focused district support mechanisms enabled faster progress in coverage and equity.

Links between protein-source diversity, household behavior, and protein consumption inadequacy in the Indian rural semi-arid tropics

Our study analyzes the determinants, sources, and levels of protein consumption among 785 households across nine districts in six Indian states in the semi-arid tropics. We found that 80% of these households consumed less protein than recommended and relied on cereals for 60–75% of their protein intake. Notably, even when protein-rich foods are accessible to households, they still consume them insufficiently. We found that their protein intake deficiency is driven by a lack of diversity of protein sources (in particular, legumes, millets, and livestock), as well as by a dearth of women's education and role in household decision-making and low incomes and assets. We advocate for initiatives to raise nutrition awareness, empower women, and adopt a nutrition-centric farming approach.

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared
to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture's role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Country profile – Senegal: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN's goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policies, interventions, and research by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Senegal’s current situation and policy landscape in these areas. In 2019, the agrifood system of Senegal accounted for 36% of total GDP and employed 43% of the total work force. The off-farm components (i.e., processing, trade/transport, food services, and input supply) are slightly more (less) important than primary agriculture in terms of GDP (employment), which implies that labor productivity is higher for off-farm activities. The most important value chains as a percentage of total agrifood system’s GDP are groundnuts (15%), cattle/dairy (14%), and sorghum/millet and fish (both around 11%) (Diao et al. 2023). In part due to important food losses observed during storage and distribution, Senegal’s agrifood system is generally failing to provide nutritious and affordable diets to its population. In fact, total food supplies are dominated by energy-dense food items, with supplies in fruit and pulses amounting to only 55 and 15 grams per capita per day, respectively, resulting in 50% of all Senegalese being unable to afford a healthy diet in 2022.

Methodology [of the PEDAL project]

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is considered one of the most cost-effective ways of addressing micronutrient deficiencies. The intervention involves adding essential minerals and vitamins to widely consumed foods and requires minimal changes to consumption patterns while relying on existing food delivery systems. However, there is a lot of variability across countries in the adoption of mandatory and voluntary LSFF standards, that is, the government legislation requiring that specific staple foods or condiments be fortified. In fact, there are more than 80 countries where micronutrient deficiencies are widespread but a mandatory fortification standard has not been adopted. Even in countries where standards have been adopted, implementation could not be financially sustained over the years or laboratory tests revealed that designated food vehicles lacked the stipulated micronutrients. The Political Economy Diagnostic for Assessing Large-Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) is designed to identify the ways in which political and institutional factors may contribute to differences in the uptake and implementation of LSFF standards. While political economy is acknowledged to be an important factor underlying the success or failure of LSFF, few studies on LSFF explicitly incorporate it into their analyses. By reducing LSFF to a purely technical intervention, bottlenecks to policy traction can worsen and derail uptake. In contrast, PEDAL offers a systematic diagnostic of the political economy environment for LSFF to identify these bottlenecks ex ante and to calibrate policy interventions accordingly. In doing so, PEDAL aims to help countries advance toward achieving healthier diets and reducing micronutrient deficiencies. PEDAL focuses on two core elements of the enabling environment: political will and implementation capacity (see Figure 1). Political will consists of the range of interests that motivate different stakeholders, the ideational goals that underlie their policy preferences, and their degree of leverage to exert their preferences. Implementation capacity consists of both the institutional architecture established to make continuous decisions related to LSFF policy and the technical capacity to ensure regulations are adhered to at the processing and retail levels. Across both dimensions, the diagnostic examines three sets of actors: the public sector (including government ministries, agencies, executives, legislators, and bureaucrats), the private sector (such as food producers, processors, and retailers) and civil society (including consumers, research institutes, universities, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations). The remainder of this brief examines these components in more detail and highlights how they can be assessed by researchers and practitioners.

Trends and inequities in adequacy of micronutrient intakes in rural Bangladesh

Background
Micronutrient deficiencies pose a significant public health challenge, yet limited evidence exists on micronutrient intakes over time in Bangladesh.
Objective
We assessed trends and adequacies in micronutrient intakes and examined the changes in inequities by age group, sex, and expenditure quintile.
Methods
We used panel data from the 2011 and 2018 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (n =21,475 and 21,589 household members aged ≥2y, respectively). Food consumption data were collected using a household dietary recall. Changes in micronutrient intakes were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test. Inequities in outcomes were examined using the Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index.
Results
Micronutrient intakes remained suboptimal across 2011 and 2018, with low adequacy (<0.50) for all nutrients except niacin. While vitamin A intake increased across various demographics, trends for other micronutrient intakes differed by age. Intakes improved for 10 micronutrients among children aged 2-<5y, but increased for only half of examined micronutrients among children aged 5-9y. For adolescents and adults, most micronutrient intakes slightly declined, with greater inadequacies observed among females versus males. Pregnant women experienced sharper declines in adequacy of micronutrient intakes than lactating women. The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was low (around one-third) for all age groups with lower MPA among poorer compared to richer households across age, sex and survey years. Inequity gaps in MPA mostly declined, except for females ≥50y and pregnant women. Conclusions Micronutrient intakes and adequacies remain suboptimal and have decreased marginally over time for many nutrients and MPA across most age groups. Inequities in micronutrient intakes persist by age, sex, and income levels, disproportionately affecting the poor, adults, and women. Our study calls for evidence-based policies and programs that incorporate a range of proven approaches and tailored solutions to effectively tackle persisting inequities and ensure access to healthy diets for all.

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

This item is currently unavailable due to an in-process journal submission.

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets.

Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets.

The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes.

The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment.

Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali

This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.

Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP

This study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia's IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.