Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP)

Closing the regulatory gap: Experimental evidence on oversight and worker incentives

Weak enforcement of regulatory standards is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Low firm capacity and standards inappropriate to local contexts imply that traditional punitive enforcement approaches may be counterproductive. We test the impact of a regulatory oversight intervention leveraging the soft power of meat inspectors in the context of 140 rural slaughterhouses in western Kenya. The intervention focused meat inspector attention on hygiene practices and was combined with training of workers and provision of basic equipment and supplies. Practices improved significantly relative to control facilities, but microbial contamination of meat did not. Outcomes were similar in a subset of treatment facilities where workers were additionally given a hygiene performance incentive. Higher volume of business in treatment facilities, which customers perceived as cleaner, suggests that retailers value less contaminated meat, but may counteract the effects of improved practices through cross-contamination and crowding.

When the cure is worse than the disease: Acaricide use, tick resistance, and systemic constraints in Uganda’s dairy sector

The Ugandan dairy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases pose increasing challenges to this progress, exacerbated by the rise in resistance to acaricides, the primary method for tick control. This paper examines the systemic constraints that undermine effective, safe, and sustainable tick control in Uganda’s liberalized dairy system. Drawing on multiple complementary data sources—including household surveys, exit interviews, list experiments, and covert audit methods—we show that the de facto farmer-led model of tick control is characterized by failures in information, coordination challenges, imperfect input markets, and weak regulation. Farmers operate with limited technical knowledge and minimal advisory support, and under extensive grazing systems and frequent inter-herd contact that require coordinated approaches to tick control. Input markets provide access to acaricides, but little guidance on proper use. As a result, misuse and overuse of chemicals are widespread, generating risks for animal and human well-being, food safety, and environmental integrity. Addressing these constraints will require integrated interventions that strengthen extension and regulatory capacity, improve accountability in veterinary input markets, and foster community-level coordination to ensure safe and sustainable tick control.

Africa's agrifood trade: The state of play

The objective of this report is to establish a state of play of African trade by giving the most accurate picture possible and propose a typology of countries in terms of their degree of openness. It is preliminary work, the first in a series of documents, to pave the way for an in-depth analysis of the role of trade and trade policies in achieving food security and improved diets in Africa. The analysis is based on the rigorous exploitation of the best available data on trade in Africa (formal and informal), the use of the best analytical tools (gravity models) as well as recent indicators for measuring regional integration. The report is organized as follows. In the next section we set the scene by presenting an overview of the complex (positive and negative) links between trade, food security and nutrition. We then analyze Africa agrifood trade, examining first international flows, then regional patterns. In the following section we formally test whether Africa is “undertrading” or not. We next establish a typology of countries according to their degree of self-sufficiency and openness. The fifth - and final- section of the report provides some conclusions and recommendations.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – November 2025

Rice prices in November 2025 declined nationally, falling by 13 percent year-on-year and remaining broadly stable compared to the previous month. The decline continues to be driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest.

Export crop prices diverged. Green gram prices increased sharply year-on-year (34 percent), supported by export demand and a modest month-to-month increase following China’s decision to ease its temporary suspension. In contrast, black gram, chickpea, and pigeon pea prices remained well below last year’s levels, reflecting weak demand from India, despite modest month-to-month increases.

Animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than last year. Mutton recorded the largest increase, while pork, chicken, and fish also rose sharply year-on-year, reflecting high production costs, disease outbreaks, and constrained supply, although month-to-month changes were more modest.

Multiple risks lie ahead, including weak international rice prices, ongoing conflict, export quality concerns, import restrictions affecting livestock production, border trade and regional policy changes, and policy uncertainty around upcoming elections, all of which may undermine agricultural incentives, farm incomes, and food security.

Insecticide use, farmers’ self-reported health status, and genetically modified cowpea in Nigeria: Findings from a clustered randomized controlled trial with causal

Excessive insecticide use in smallholder agriculture can threaten human health and the environment. We evaluate the effects of receiving a genetically modified cowpea variety that confers resistance to the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) using a clustered randomized controlled trial with an encouragement design in Nigeria. We find that farmers who received the pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea with complementary inputs significantly reduce insecticide volumes and report fewer days of insecticide-related illness compared to farmers who only received a conventional cowpea variety. Farmers receiving PBR cowpea alone experience smaller, mostly insignificant reductions. To explore heterogeneous responses, we combine ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) interactions with machine learning-based Causal Forest estimates of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs). Results reveal that smaller, less wealthy, and labor-constrained households experience the largest reductions in insecticide use and health improvements, whereas wealthier farmers or those with higher baseline spraying practices experience lower reductions. Women-managed plots exhibit modestly higher responsiveness. Our findings highlight the importance of moving beyond average effects and seed distribution toward targeted, context-specific interventions that account for behavioral and resource constraints in smallholder farming systems.

A 2020-21 Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan with a Related Water Resources Module

This paper presents the methodological framework and data sources for a national-level Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Pakistan, with an associated hydrological data set. The aim of the paper is to provide a systematic guide to the data requirements necessary to construct a national SAM for Pakistan, and to present the main results from this exercise. We base the development of this SAM on existing SAM frameworks to update the Pakistan national SAM from 2013–14, tying often to the structure of Nexus SAMs developed by IFPRI under its NEXUS Program (see https://www.ifpri.org/project/nexus-project/). However, the estimation of accounts differs in many cases, and the balancing techniques vary as well. The hydrology data is updated using data compiled from sources which include the recent tube-well census in Punjab, surface water flow data, meteorological data, water storage levels and capacity, water efficiency and climate data. The hydrology data is mainly used to update IFPRI’s Computable General Equilibrium- Water (CGE-W) model.

The future of ABPU agriculture: The 2nd MERCUSUR outlook

In today’s complex and uncertain global environment, region-specific agricultural and trade outlooks are more essential than ever. While global projections from institutions such as the OECD-FAO and USDA provide valuable baselines, incorporating local perspectives is essential to capture the specific dynamics of emerging economies that are deeply integrated into international agrifood markets. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the world’s largest net food-exporting region, playing a central role in stabilizing supplies and reducing price volatility (IFPRI, 2025). Within LAC, Mercosur—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU)—accounts for more than half of the region’s agrifood trade, concentrated in oilseeds, cereals, and animal proteins. Over the past two decades, agricultural exports from LAC have more than doubled, consolidating the region’s role as a net contributor to global food availability (Piñeiro et al, 2025a, 2025b). This performance highlights Mercosur’s structural weight in global markets, while also underscoring the climatic, institutional, and infrastructural challenges that call for tailored foresight tools.

Community health worker caseloads, home visits, and child survival: Experimental evidence of heterogenous effects from Mali

I examine whether the effectiveness of community health worker (CHW) home visits in reducing under-five mortality varies with the population-to-CHW ratio in rural, fragile, and conflict-affected Mali. Muso, a global health NGO focused on reducing child and maternal mortality, recently signed a data use agreement with IFPRI to enable study of new research questions using data from its recent randomized controlled trial (RCT) of proactive home visits in Mali’s Bankass region. The original trial found that proactive home visits by professional CHWs did not lead to detectable reductions in child mortality relative to fixed-site care, although health infrastructure improvements in both treatment arms likely led to experienced large declines in under-five mortality across all study communities amid ongoing conflict.

In this project note, I study heterogeneous effects of the proactive home visit model by population-to-CHW ratios using nearly census level baseline population data and administrative records on CHW assignment. I test the hypothesis that home visits may operate differently when CHWs face particularly high or low caseloads. In theory, CHWs serving small populations may not be necessary for improving access because travel distances to fixed sites are already short, whereas CHWs serving very large populations may be unable to conduct sufficiently frequent and high-quality home visits. If both mechanisms operate, an optimal population-to-CHW ratio may exist.

Instead, I find evidence that CHW home visits are more effective when the population-to-CHW ratio is high. At 900 people per CHW (about the 90th percentile in the trial data), children in control clusters experience significantly higher mortality risk. This elevated risk, however, is offset in clusters assigned to proactive home visits. Additional checks indicate that this is driven by CHW coverage rather than underlying population size. These findings suggest that proactive home visits may be most beneficial in areas where fixed-site CHWs otherwise face heavy caseloads.

Impact of NGOs on women's empowerment and voice in Bangladesh

Bangladesh continues to experience persistent gender inequalities shaped by cultural, religious, and social norms. Within its patriarchal social structure, women’s roles are commonly limited to reproductive work or household-based productive activities. These tasks are essential to family well-being but unpaid, undervalued, and routinely overlooked compared to men’s work (Efroymson et al., 2007). These norms have historically constrained women’s visibility, mobility, and participation in the public sphere.

The expansion of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) marked an important shift in this landscape. Bangladesh’s NGO sector is heterogeneous, with diverse organizational structures, management styles, and ideological orientations that span both service-delivery and movement-based models (Kabeer, 2002). The rapid growth of NGOs starting in the 1980s is driven largely by increases in donor funding, which signaled a move away from earlier approaches focused on promoting political mobilization and accountability of government toward more service-oriented delivery systems (Rahman, 2006). Over the last decades, many of these service-delivery organizations have incorporated advocacy and rights-based strategies into their work (Nazneen, 2008). Through these evolving programmes, NGOs highlighted and strengthened the contributions of underprivileged women as economic actors and active participants in development and political process. However, despite this progress, there is still no clear empirical evidence from Bangladesh that directly links the presence of NGOs to improvements in women’s agency, voice, and empowerment.

Perceived need and measured well-being: How well do subjective rankings capture relative poverty?

Subjective well-being rankings are increasingly used to target social protection programs, yet their ability to capture relative welfare and wealth remains debated. This study benchmarks self-, peer-, and elite-based poverty rankings against consumption- and wealth-based measures using Ethiopian household survey data, where about 20 households per village were ranked from neediest to least needy by themselves, peers, and community leaders. We assess concordance between subjective and conventional welfare rankings and explore sources of divergence. Subjective rankings align more with relative wealth than consumption and with total rather than per capita welfare, suggesting they overlook household composition. Elite-based rankings best capture conventional measures, followed by peers’ and self-rankings. Subjective rankings also better reflect relative deprivation among households exposed to covariate shocks. A composite index combining all three improves agreement with standard metrics. Information asymmetries, favoritism, and welfare dynamics partly explain discrepancies, offering insights for enhancing targeting in data-scarce settings.

Urea super granules with deep placement

Urea deep placement, an alternative to traditional broadcast methods, consists of applying urea super granules (USG) directly into the soil next to the root of the plant and beyond the roots of weeds. Traditionally, farmers broadcast prilled urea fertilizer on top of their plots, which is associated with high rates of nitrogen loss, leading to reduced crop yields and environmental damage, especially among rice farmers. In contrast, the use of USG deep placement better contains nitrogen in the soil, facilitating its absorption into crops and improving nitrogen use efficiency. In this way, USG can reduce nitrogen losses along with the associated economic and environmental consequences.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low and middle income countries have been facing mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs, which can have distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities. However, there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both in theory and in practice, and hence who may be affected by policy reform. In this paper, we identify low and middle countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are meant to be universal, there are are additional implicit targeting criteria and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls in many countries. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, fertilizer subsidies are generally progressive, though this seems to be driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique

Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies.

We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time.

Strategic plan of the IFPRI program on fragile and conflict-affected food systems (FCAS): 2026-2029

Humanitarian crises are becoming more frequent, protracted, and complex. Fragility, conflict, climate extremes, and displacement increasingly converge to undermine food security, disrupt livelihoods, and erode community resilience across dozens of countries. In these settings, humanitarian actors face enormous pressure to deliver assistance in ways that are timely, inclusive, accountable, and aligned with the needs and priorities of affected populations. Further, governments demand evidence on what policies, programming, and other investments can support prevention, recovery, and resilience. In the current funding environment, global humanitarian financing is stretched thinner than ever, making improvements in effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of humanitarian actions all the more urgent.

The IFPRI Program on Fragile and Conflict-Affected Food Systems (FCAS) responds to these challenges by generating practical, policy-relevant evidence on what works to support food security and resilience in FCAS, with a focus on who benefits, under what conditions, and at what cost. Through long-standing engagement in countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Yemen, the Program supports governments, UN agencies, International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs), and local NGOs to strengthen food systems in fragile contexts and improve outcomes for crisis-affected children, women, households, and communities.

To make the Program’s rigorous research and evidence generation effective, it relies on deep partnership, local engagement, and a commitment to translating evidence into real-world change. Its work spans crisis anticipation and prevention; monitoring and crisis response; and recovery and resilience. It also considers two key cross-cutting areas: governance and accountability; and gender equality and inclusion. Across all of these areas, the Program advances locally-led approaches and elevates the voices and leadership of affected populations.

IFPRI’s institutional strategy and its four-pronged approach to research and impact guide the Program; its work in FCAS aims to: (1) position major development challenges on policy agendas, (2) build scalable high-impact solutions, (3) strengthen governance and financing mechanisms, and (4) deploy tools, methods, and capabilities for research and policy impact. The Program supports humanitarian systems reform by generating new evidence on effective program design features; exploring means of strengthening governance and social inclusion; and supporting coordination across humanitarian, development, and peace actors. This Strategic Plan outlines how the Program operates, what it contributes, and how it sustains a unique role for IFPRI within the global humanitarian ecosystem.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Wheat use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

MSMEs and their role in encouraging sustainable healthy diets in Viet Nam

In this brief, we explore diet quality gaps in survey data collected in a transect of locations in Vietnam, including an urban district, a peri-urban district, and a rural district. We find that healthy foods are relatively underconsumed, at least among adolescents. We find that when households report purchasing most types of healthy foods, they buy them from MSMEs. Among types of healthy foods that are underconsumed, we find they are most commonly available at small groceries. Therefore, as Vietnam begins to implement policies to guide food systems transformation at the subnational level, it would seem worthwhile to target small groceries as a conduit for selling more components of healthy diets. De Brauw, Anh and Pham (2024) find that some business skills are particularly lacking among small groceries; for example, they find that very few small groceries have financial records, record sales, or have a written budget. Small groceries also lack access to finance. However, many of them also sell less healthy foods, such as refined grains (such as white rice), sweets, and sugar sweetened beverages. Therefore it is important to combine any business skills with nutrition education, to try to ensure that business owners do not use newfound skills to promote the sale of additional unhealthy products. There are several policy levers, existing at both the national and provincial levels, that could be used to help MSMEs sell more healthy products. However, it is important to monitor these policies to ensure that they are catalyzing food systems transformation towards healthy diets. With appropriate training and potentially additional finance, MSMEs selling healthier foods can be encouraged to grow and improve the accessibility of healthy foods.

The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynamics using a modeling framework that integrates detailed microdata on migration profiles. Three scenarios are considered: a reference case reflecting recent-historical migration patterns (MIG-0), moderately restricted migration (MIG-1), and net return migration (MIG-2), capturing newly emerging shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level within the country. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2%) and by an additional 0.3-0.5 percentage points under the more restrictive cases, driven by higher labor availability from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8%), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, however, is highly sensitive to remittance flows, with income and consumption declining under the restrictive scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

From vision to action (V2A): Advancing sustainable management of multifunctional landscapes in Akole, Maharashtra (India)

The Vision-to-Action (V2A) approach was developed to support inclusive stakeholder conversations to create a shared vision for a desirable future, develop holistic and medium-term transition pathways towards sustainable living landscapes, and define realistic, collectively agreed-upon concrete action plans that outline the behavior changes required to transition from their current situation to the envisioned future. It is designed to foster action that is multi-actor (e.g., producers, traders, enterprises, consumers, policymakers), multidimensional (e.g., agricultural, environmental, economic, social), and multi-scalar (e.g., farm, landscape, system) to realize sustainable food system transformation. This method structures conversations to allow stakeholders to discuss and agree about who, what, when and where to engage in the sought transformation processes. The V2A process and results also point to opportunities and entry points for responsive external support including by research-in-development partners such as the CGIAR Science Program on Multifunctional Landscapes.

Lessons from the Digital Agricultural Advisory Services (DAAS) project in Ethiopia: Dairy use case

Agricultural extension services are a cornerstone of rural development and a vital instrument for policymakers to directly shape economic, social, and environmental outcomes in rural areas. These services aim to enhance farm productivity by promoting the adoption of agricultural technologies, inputs, and management practices. Through outreach, training, knowledge sharing, and learning, extension activities help bridge the gap between research and practice, potentially supporting more resilient and productive farming systems (Davis 2008; Jack 2013).

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) food environment assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
Community and Market Mapping

In-Depth Vendor Assessment - Food Availability

Food and Beverage Promotion

Show me the money! Experimental evidence on preferences for cash vs. digital payment

In places such as rural Bangladesh, cash is the dominant medium for payments despite potential benefits of digital payments. We offer survey respondents an incentive-compatible choice for compensation: 200 Taka cash or randomly varied mobile money amounts (200-400 Taka). Only eight percent chose digital payment at parity and respondents exhibit an average willingness-to-pay of 43 percent of the payment value to receive cash payment. This preference persists across demographics, including among mobile money account holders. Within-household analysis reveals that 77 percent of the effect stems from individual-level rather than household-level factors, highlighting the importance of demand-side barriers on digital payments.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) dietary assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
24-Hour Recall

Diet Quality Questionnaire

Food Frequency Questionnaire

Observed Weighted Food Record

How local leaders view transparency and local autonomy in humanitarian aid distribution: Evidence from Mali

Recognizing the pivotal role local governance plays in crisis response and the diversity of local conditions even within a single country context, this article examines variation in preferences over humanitarian aid delivery among local leaders in Mali. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork and a survey of 2,919 local leaders across the country, we investigate leaders’ preferences over two key dimensions of aid governance: local autonomy over targeting and distribution and transparency over aid delivery. Using aid profile vignettes to elicit preferences over these attributes, we find that leaders generally favor approaches that combine both greater local control and greater transparency, viewing transparency as complementary to autonomy rather than constraining. Preferences, however, vary by leaders’ position and by context: outsiders to aid governance demand more transparency, and leaders’ relative trust in local aid committees versus donors predicts preferences for autonomy. Leaders in conflict-affected villages place greater value on autonomy and less on transparency, highlighting how insecurity reshapes aid preferences in fragile settings.

Mitigating the agricultural drivers of nature loss through nature-positive agriculture: A synthesis report

Bridging the information gap: How Munda Makeover is transforming agricultural learning in Zambia

This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. For women and youth, these challenges are further exacerbated by persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

Updating yield growth rates in the IMPACT model to enhance global analysis of the future of agriculture

Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024).

IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A.

IFPRI’s research in fragile and conflict-affected settings

IFPRI’s research provides partners with support through a wide range of evidence and products: Decision-support tools spanning all phases of crisis and conflict: anticipating and preventing risks before they escalate, monitoring and responding during acute crises, and supporting long-term recovery and resilience. Context-relevant evidence on policies, programming, and interventions to address the unique challenges faced by FCAS—relevant for governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and other partners. Rapid-response policy support to address emerging challenges. Best-practice guidance for conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive policy designs.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual release note 2025

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2025. This Annual Release Note briefly overviews SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to all the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.

Biofuels in India: Trading off climate mitigation with water security goals

Biofuels are recognized as a renewable alternative to fossil sources of energy like petroleum or gas. Liquid biofuels, such as bioethanol and biodiesel are blended with petrol or diesel and used for road, aviation and marine transport; they are expected to account for 6% of total renewable transportation fuel use by 2030. Biofuels can not only support a country’s mitigation goals; but also reduce the need for foreign exchange and support agricultural growth.

In India, 22% of total energy supply is provided by renewables, most of it from biomass for heating; while biofuels account for less than 1% of transportation energy. Over 90% of bioethanol and biodiesel are produced from food crops such as maize, sugarcane, soybeans, and vegetable oils, with sugarcane serving as the primary feedstock. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India submitted its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) to the UNFCCC in 2022, emphasizing the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. Achieving this goal is supported, among others, by India’s biofuel policy of 2018 (modified from the original policy of 2009), which aims to achieve blending targets of 20% for ethanol and 5% for biodiesel by 2025.

Nudging farmers toward disease-free shrimp technology with financial incentives: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks.

Women’s empowerment and child nutrition in the Asia – Pacific region: Evidence from Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste

Adverse nutritional outcomes for children under five remain a significant challenge around the world, and there is growing evidence that women’s empowerment is associated with better children’s nutritional outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the association between women’s empowerment and the probability of stunting, wasting, underweight status, and achieving dietary diversity for children under five using a cross-country sample of Demographic and Health Survey data from three countries in the Asia – Pacific region: Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. We construct the Survey-based Women’s Empowerment (SWPER) index as well as a slightly modified SWPER index using women’s reported experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) rather than attitudes toward domestic violence (employed in the original index). Our findings suggest that women’s empowerment as captured by the SWPER index is associated with a reduced incidence of stunting, wasting and underweight status and a higher probability that children achieve MDD, though this relationship is only weakly observed in Timor-Leste. In general, the index estimated using experience of IPV shows a clearer association with nutritional outcomes, vis-a-vis the index estimated using attitudes toward IPV.

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Malawi’s agrifood system: Transformation and environmental impacts

This paper is an update of Country Brief 8 in the series of Agrifood System Diagnostics coauthored by De Weerdt et al. (2023). The important addition from the previous country brief is a new section assessing agriculture’s environmental footprint, focusing on water use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by subsector and over time. Unlike the previous version, this brief does not include a forward-looking analysis—using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023)—of the contribution of productivity growth in agricultural value chains on agrifood transformation, employment, and socioeconomic outcomes. For a recent and extensive value chain ranking analysis that incorporates RIAPA modeling results, readers are referred to Pienaar et al. (2023).

Malawi experienced slow growth in the post COVID-19 pandemic period. In addition to the economic impacts of the pandemic itself, the country suffered from high levels of public debt and a sustained balance of payments crisis. Global events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather events such as Cyclone Freddy and the El Niño in 2023–2024 further prevented the Malawi economy from returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Economic growth rates have dropped from an average of 4.1 percent in 2011–2019 to 2.2 percent since 2020 (World Bank 2025), with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent per year during 2009–2022.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Digital agricultural technology in Egypt: Insights from app developers

Digital technologies have rapidly reshaped agricultural systems worldwide, and Egypt is no exception. Over the past decade, the proliferation of smartphones, mobile internet, and low-cost digital tools has opened new channels through which farmers, traders, processors, and aggregators access information and services. Smartphone applications, websites, call centers, and SMS-based platforms now offer advice on crop management, weather and climate alerts, input and output price information, traceability tools, and digital marketplaces. For smallholder farmers—who make up the backbone of Egypt`s agricultural sector—these tools have the potential to reduce information frictions, improve decision-making, and increase productivity and profitability. For larger firms engaged in aggregation, processing, or export, digital platforms can streamline supply chains, enhance coordination, and improve quality assurance.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Gender roles in South Asian food systems

Food environments and behavioral drivers of food choice in South Asia

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers.

This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

Farming households' adaptation to climatic shocks in South Asia: A food systems perspective

Overview - Agrifood systems transformation in South Asia: An agenda for impact and learning at scale

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

More land, more diverse diets? Exploring production and consumption trade-offs in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

When trade saves natural resources: Evidence from cereals trade in SADC

Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change. While global temperatures have risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, Africa has registered a 0.3°C increase (WMO, 2022). Beyond rising temperatures, Africa faces various related challenges, including rising sea levels, unpredictable rainfall leading to both droughts and severe storms, and increased threats from plant pests and animal diseases. As a result, the continent is expected to see a significant decline in arable land, further compromising its agricultural future. Specifically, southern Africa is highly climate vulnerable. Water scarcity is critical for food security, yet trade can help reallocate cereals from water-rich to water-scarce areas.

Indeed one often-overlooked aspect in the discussion about trade and climate change is how trade can actually help combat climate change. Indeed, when production is shifted from places that have limited environmental resources to those that are rich in them, the ecological footprint of economic activities can be lessened. For instance, international and regional trade have the potential to conserve water on both global and regional scales by exporting water-intensive goods from regions that have high water efficiency or abundant water resources to those with less availability (Fracasso 2014), yielding a much more efficient allocation of water resources around the world. SADC’s own regional water policy recognizes comparative advantage in water as a basis for trade integration (SADC 2005).

This policy note reviews virtual water trade in the SADC region and tests whether trade flows reflect countries’ comparative advantage in water endowment, with a focus on cereals. It first presents an overview of virtual water trade flows in the region and uses an econometric model to test the link between water endowments and the water content of trade flows. We conclude with a discussion and some policy implications.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

IFPRI strategy 2026-2030: Food policy research for a changing world

IFPRI’s Strategy for 2026–2030 reaffirms the Institute’s commitment to providing research-based policy solutions. IFPRI works with partners to use the power of policy to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods, contribute to empowerment, and promote sustainability and climate resilience, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This new strategy responds to the many challenges and opportunities emerging today, from climate change to growing inequities to digital technologies and more. It combines a proven four-pronged research and engagement approach with five research themes that reflect a systems understanding of food policies—from farm to consumer. IFPRI’s research is designed to support impact at scale through country- and region-led policies that will help to sustainably end poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies.

Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey.

The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Nutrition and dietary quality in Sri Lanka: Insights from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

Key findings and policy implications
• Dietary quality in Sri Lanka – defined in terms of consumption levels of different healthy food groups – falls well short of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health’s 2021 Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) targets, with clear imbalances across food groups.
• Heavy dependence on starchy staples. Starchy foods dense in calories but sparse in nutrients provide over 60% of total energy consumption, highlighting a strong over-consumption of rice.
• Low consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Intakes of fruits, dark green leafy vegetables (DGLVs), and legumes are at only about one-third of the recommended levels.
• Some households report zero consumption of healthy food groups. More than 30% of households report zero consumption of dairy foods in the past 7 days, while 15% report zero consumption of dark green leafy vegetables, and 5% zero fruit, indicating that important foods are absent from many household diets.
• Multidimensional dietary deprivation. Nearly all Sri Lankan households are deprived in at least one food group. A typical deprived household falls below the reference threshold in six to seven of eight food groups and consumes only about 37% of the recommended amounts for the foods in which consumption is lower than recommended.
• Significant dietary inequality across sectors. Dietary deprivation is most acute in the estate sector, while rural and urban areas fare moderately better.
• There is a clear need to promote healthy dietary diversification, especially higher consumption of fruits, legumes, vegetables and dairy, while moderating excess consumption of starchy staples.
• Institutionalize regular monitoring of diet deprivation, using the Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index and other dietary indicators to guide targeted nutrition interventions.
• Support further research on the drivers of dietary patterns in Sri Lanka to better understand its determinants and differences between sectors.

From pledges to action: NDC 3.0 for poverty reduction and climate justice in Nepal

Located in the heart of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, Nepal plays a vital geopolitical and ecological role in South Asia’s climate landscape. Although the country contributes less than 0.03 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions (MoFE 2020) and has extensive forest cover of 46 percent (MoFE 2025), it faces disproportionate risks from climate-induced disasters, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), erratic monsoons, and prolonged droughts. The HKH region spans eight countries and hosts 10 major river basins and more than 87,000 square kilometers of glaciers, delivering water and ecosystem services to more than 1.9 billion people downstream (ICIMOD 2025a). Within this complex hydrological system, Nepal's rivers—including the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali—not only sustain local livelihoods but also feed millions in India’s Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and even parts of China.

Climate justice is imperative in this context: Nepal’s low emissions profile stands in stark contrast to its high vulnerability (CVF 2024), requiring urgent attention to equity, adaptation finance, and inclusive development pathways. This policy note discusses Nepal’s role in climate justice diplomacy, examines the regional and country-level context of climate risk, and assesses Nepal’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to reframe climate action through a justice-centered lens.

Accessing Aswesuma: Key findings on Sri Lanka’s new social protection program from the bright 2024-25 national survey

• We use the nationally representative BRIGHT 2024-25 survey to document Aswesuma access at the national and subnational level, and among poor and food-insecure households
• At the time of the BRIGHT 2024-2025 survey, the Aswesuma program covered 29.1% of the Sri Lankan population compared to just 18.8% of the population under Samurdhi in 2016: a 10.3 percentage point improvement. However, at the time of the survey, the Aswesuma program has still not reached its target of 35% national population coverage.
• Encouragingly, the largest expansion of cash transfer access was in upland (Estate) districts, who had limited access to cash transfers under the previous Samurdhi program
• Aswesuma access among poor populations was highest in the Estate sector (56%), followed by the rural (46%) and urban populations (44%)
• Aswesuma transfers are unlikely to reduce employment or other income-generating activities among the poor, as Aswesuma cash transfers only represent 19% of the expenditures of the poorest 20% of households, and just 10% for the next poorest group.
• While Aswesuma transfers may protect households against low calorie intake (hunger), Aswesuma households still have low-quality diets, under-consuming fruits, vegetables, dairy, and legumes in particular
• Nutritional knowledge is also much poorer among Aswesuma beneficiaries than the rest of the Sri Lankan population, particularly knowledge of key micronutrient-rich foods
• These results imply the need for a wide range of policy-oriented research and follow-up surveys on drivers of access to Aswesuma, but also impacts of Aswesuma on key welfare indicators
• There is also a need to explore and improve multisectoral coordination between Aswesuma and other programs on child nutrition and development, as well as women’s empowerment.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation.

Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050.

Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages.

Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy.

Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders.

In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework.

In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population:
• A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods,
• Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains,
• A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and
• A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Food insecurity in post-crisis Sri Lanka: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess food insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT National Household Survey data for 2024-2025, which collected data on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by the FAO.
• 32.8% of households in Sri Lanka experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in the 12 months prior to the survey, with 29.6% classified as moderately and 3.2% classified as severely food insecure. In contrast, food insecurity was just 12% in the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES), such that food insecurity has almost tripled since the 2022 economic crisis.
• A very high 54.5% of Estate households (households that reside in housing on an estate/plantation) experienced food insecurity (43.2% moderate, and 11.4% severe), compared to 35.3% of urban and 31.8% of rural households. Eastern (39.1%), Uva (38.5%), and Southern (38.1%) provinces recorded the highest food insecurity rates.
• Dry-zone households show slightly higher moderate and severe insecurity (34.6%) than inter-mediate (31.1%) and wet zones (24.6%).
• Households dependent on informal employment are more than twice as likely to report food in-security (41% moderate, 5% severe) compared to formal employment households (18% moderate, 1% severe).
• Fishing households are the most food insecure across all livelihoods with 58% experiencing moderate or severe insecurity, including 10% reporting severe food insecurity. Households de-pendent on construction (41%), agriculture (38%), textiles/artisans (35%), manufacturing (29%), food and beverage preparation (27%) and services (23%) also reported high food insecurity.
• Splitting by wealth quintiles, the poorest 20% of households in Sri Lanka have a food insecurity prevalence of 45% including 10% who are severely food insecure. Food insecurity declines as wealth increases but is still high for the second (34%) and middle quintiles (25%).
• The FIES-based indicator reports much higher food insecurity in 2024 (32.8%) than the WFP’s alternative CARI method of estimating food insecurity (16%).
• FIES-based measures can support more frequent monitoring of food insecurity in Sri Lanka via phone surveys and help assess the impacts of programs such as Aswesuma.

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025.
• Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks.
• The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone.
• Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers.
• Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income.
• Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA).
• Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country.
• Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent.
• Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks.
• Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels..
• Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025
• Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province.
• Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%).
• In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks.
• Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile.
• Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity.
• Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest.

Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
• Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents.
• Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors
• Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices.
• More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Key Findings
• Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water.
• Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity.
• Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households.
• 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households.
• Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones.
• Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households.
• Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Impact of conflict on key agro-industries in Khartoum State, Sudan: Wheat flour milling, oil processing, and packaging

This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state.

The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector.

Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries.

Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains.

Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors.

Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector.

A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector.

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

Multistakeholder platforms in transboundary waters: What do we know, and where should we go?

This policy brief synthesizes recent evidence on multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in shared river basins and presents practical guidance for river basin organizations, development partners, and policymakers. It compares established basin-level MSP approaches across three basins (Nile, Zambezi, and Mekong) and describes how stakeholders in the Incomati and Maputo River Basins—shared across the Republic of South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique—built on these approaches to design their own MSP. This brief translates comparative evidence and field experience into a practical toolkit for advancing MSPs in shared basins.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique - Groundtruthing data collection and stakeholder engagement report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Zambezia in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making.

SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4)Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU).

This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict all activities carried out during the data collection process in the several districts of Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces which are the target regions of the project. The report also includes the methodology approach used since the interaction and involvement of local stakeholders. At the last sections, the report includes the main findings from the data collection process, challenges and constraints, lessons learnt and the next steps.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Kenya Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2025

Rice prices in September 2025 declined nationally, falling by 8 percent year-on-year and 5 percent compared to the previous month. The decrease was driven by international market trends and downward pressure from the incoming monsoon harvest. Prices either stabilized or declined across most states and regions in the country. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram rising this year due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged over the last year – e.g. pork rose by 55 percent – due to rising production costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Multiple risks lie ahead, including falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, quality concerns, import restrictions, and disruptions in border trade, all of which may undermine agricultural production, farm income, and food security.

The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy.

This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation.

The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing.

The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms.

The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.

Experiential learning for groundwater governance in India study data

This data article presents a dataset developed to support a rigorous impact assessment of an experiential learning intervention aimed at enhancing groundwater governance and agricultural water management in rural Indian communities. The intervention combined collective action games, participatory planning tools, and community debriefings to promote behavioral shifts toward sustainable groundwater and surface water management. These tools are designed to support informed decision-making, foster collective action, and strengthen governance of water as a common resource. The impact evaluation follows a randomized control trial design, incorporating baseline and follow-up data from both treatment and control habitations. The dataset encompasses behavioral, social, and institutional variables collected through individual surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The intervention and data collection took place in four districts across three Indian states, targeting communities heavily dependent on groundwater. Baseline data were gathered between November 2021 and February 2022, prior to intervention implementation, with follow-up data collected from January to June 2023. The data was collected by local trained enumerators to test the scalability of the approach. Participants were selected through stratified random sampling from a purposively defined sample frame, reflecting groundwater reliance and socioeconomic diversity. The resulting dataset comprises anonymized, structured files detailing demographic, social, agricultural, and water governance information across all study groups. The dataset’s multi-layered structure and detailed documentation enable a wide range of reuse opportunities, including replication of previous analyses, in-depth exploration of behavioral and institutional dynamics, and the advancement of novel methodological approaches in water governance research. It supports diverse research needs spanning cross-regional comparisons and policy evaluations.

A good global investment for the European Commission: How investing in CGIAR reduces global poverty and benefits E.U. citizens

CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the E.U. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on E.U. farms, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for E.U. consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten E.U. farm livelihoods. This note quantifies the benefits to farmers, exporters and consumers.

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Spatial analysis shows moderate yet significantly more vigorous crops in AICCRA communities compared to control communities

In southern Ghana, communities with multiple stakeholder CSA field demonstrations (CSA hubs) show significantly more vigorous crops based on satellite imagery from 2021 to 2025, compared to control communities.

Integrated pest management

The use of pesticides in agriculture has had mixed consequences. While pesticides have significantly increased agricultural productivity and food security by reducing yield losses to harmful organisms [1], their excessive use has led to severe environmental consequences. Inherently, pesticides are designed to protect plants from pests. However, their effects extend far beyond the targeted organisms. Pesticides occasionally contaminate soil [2], [3], [4], water [5], [6], and air [7], leading to widespread environmental pollution, reducing biodiversity and causing potential health risk to humans [8]. This happens through volatilization [9], spray drift [10], runoff from fields [11], and improper product management [12] such as improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage [12]. The chemicals used in pesticides can persist in the environment, causing long-term harm to ecosystems [13]. They do not stay confined to the areas where they are applied; they can spread through air and water, affecting distant ecosystems and non-target species.